Weekly Mortgage Rates Remain Steady Near 6%

Boring is good when you’re watching mortgage rates. This week, once again, delivered no plot twists.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell two basis points to 5.99% in the week ending Feb. 12, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point. According to our data, the weekly average has stayed within a narrow 5.9% to 6.1% range for eight consecutive weeks.

So what’s behind this steady heartbeat — and how can mortgage shoppers score a sweet deal? Let’s take a look.

January’s better-than-expected employment report signaled that the economy isn’t cooling as quickly as some had anticipated. The Labor Department’s report showed employers added 130,000 jobs last month, while the unemployment rate improved slightly to 4.3%.

But beneath the optimistic headline was an important footnote. Annual revisions to the jobs data showed that the past two years of job growth were much weaker than first reported. The size of the revision — more than 1 million jobs — was big enough to turn heads.

But for the Federal Reserve, which indirectly influences mortgage rates by setting the federal funds rate, the “right now” matters more than the “back then.” Following January’s strong jobs report, most forecasters expect the Fed to hold the federal funds rate steady at its next meeting in March.

January is a predictably slow month for home sales, but last month’s nationwide winter storm also put the market on ice. Existing home sales slid by 8.4% from December to January, while available inventory declined 0.8%.

“The decrease in sales is disappointing,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a news release. “The below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation this January make it harder than usual to assess the underlying driver of the decrease and determine if this month’s numbers are an aberration.”

Traditionally, more inventory starts to come on the market in February, giving today’s buyers reason to be optimistic.

When the Fed meets March 17-18, policymakers will weigh a surprisingly resilient labor market against their ongoing fight to tame inflation. They’ll get fresh insight from two key January reports: the Consumer Price Index (CPI), out tomorrow, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, due Friday, Feb. 20.

If January’s inflation data show prices aren’t cooling much, the Fed is likely to delay cutting its benchmark rate. In that case, mortgage rates are more likely to hover near current levels than to move sharply lower. In other words, steady economic data could translate into more predictable borrowing costs.

Stable mortgage rates mean less stress for shoppers. Instead of wondering if you picked the “perfect” day to lock in your rate, you free up mental energy to focus on what really matters — like comparing offers from lenders and making sure the monthly payment fits your budget.