Mortgage Rates Today, Thursday, March 5: Back Under 6%

After tipping over 6% yesterday, mortgage rates are back in the fives.

The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 5.91% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is 14 basis points lower than yesterday and two basis points lower than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

Borrowers who shop around with at least two to four different lenders can save hundreds or even thousands of dollars per year, according to Freddie Mac. Especially when rates are volatile, comparing lender quotes will help you find the best combination of low rates and fees.

Average mortgage rates, last 30 days

📉 When will mortgage rates drop?

Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news … you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.

This week has been packed with employment data, capped off with February’s jobs report tomorrow. If the labor market’s looking weak, mortgage rates could fall as markets increase the odds of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve at central bankers’ next meeting on March 17-18.

For context, January’s numbers, which came out on Feb. 11, were mixed. On one hand, job creation was strong and unemployment saw a mild decline. On the other hand, nearly all the job creation came from healthcare and social assistance. (Social assistance encompasses areas like day care and community services.) Those aren’t an amazing indicator, since they’re fields society always needs. Even in a weaker job market, you’re likely to see openings in those areas.

Payroll processor ADP released its private sector employment report yesterday, which showed that private employers added 63,000 jobs in February, once again concentrated mostly in education and healthcare.

“Ideally, job gains should be happening across the whole of the labor market,” writes Elizabeth Renter, NerdWallet Senior Economist.

“When they are concentrated in just a few sectors, only those workers get the potential benefit of expansion. It’s far easier for folks in the healthcare industry to find a better paying job right now than it is for someone in most other fields.”

As of this morning, the vast majority of analysts are predicting that the Fed will vote to leave the overnight borrowing rate unchanged.

Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).

With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.41% or higher.

Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.

If you’re looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet’s refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.

🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?

There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.

If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.

NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.

🔒 Should I lock my rate?

If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.

Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.

🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.

🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?

The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won’t match every buyer’s circumstances.

In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:

Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.

👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?

Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.

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