Well. Yesterday afternoon, the Federal Reserve concluded its June meeting with the announcement that they were, as expected, leaving the federal funds rate as-is. And as we say here all the dang time, mortgage rates seldom react to the Fed’s actual decisions, having priced in market predictions well in advance. So what the heck just happened?
The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage jumped to 6.39% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is 24 basis points higher than yesterday and five basis points higher than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.
Rates had spent the week easing up a bit, as the U.S. and Iran reached an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and an end to that conflict began to feel plausible. But the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections — the anonymized predictions the central bankers release every other meeting — and Kevin Warsh’s first press conference as Fed chair erased that drop.
For more on what happened yesterday afternoon and what might be next, keep reading below the chart.
P.S.: Markets are closed tomorrow in observance of Juneteenth, and we’re off, too. With no trading, the rates you see today aren’t likely to change a ton during the long weekend. We’ll see you right back here on Monday.
Average mortgage rates, last 30 days
🤓 Kate on Rates: June 18, 2026
📈 What influences mortgage rates?
Please remain seated and fasten your seatbelts.
In his confirmation hearings and at other speaking engagements, Warsh made no secret of his belief that the central bankers, and the chair in particular, talk too much. He had also expressed dislike for the Summary of Economic Projections, particularly the ‘dot plot’ which shows the bankers’ expectations for the federal funds rate.
And indeed, Warsh declined to participate in the dot plot. (Seeing 18 dots rather than 19 implied this was the case, but he confirmed this during the press conference.) Another notable change was the statement released at 2 p.m., which was notably shorter than had been the norm and which dropped the “forward guidance” that’s usually included.
Let’s talk about the press conference itself for a moment, which I watched via the livestream. For me, Warsh came off like a CEO fielding questions from shareholders, at times attempting levity but at others seeming frustrated at being asked for explanations. It’s absolutely the chair’s prerogative to choose which questions to answer; Jerome Powell, Warsh’s predecessor, repeatedly refused to answer any questions regarding the current administration or its actions. But Warsh didn’t want to talk about topics like inflation, brushing these questions off as regarding “forward guidance” he was not going to give.
Some level of transparency is expected, and we did get that with the SEP. Unfortunately for mortgage rate watchers, the dot plot implied we could get a rate hike by the end of this year, with the median expectation for the funds rate rising just above its current level. What we could see wasn’t terribly optimistic — and the SEP was most of what we had to go on.
Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).
With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.89% or higher.
🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?
There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.
🔒 Should I lock my rate?
Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.
🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.
🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?
In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:
Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.
👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?
Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.
About the author
Kate Wood is a lending expert and certified financial health counselor (CHFC) who joined NerdWallet in 2019. With an educational background in sociology, Kate feels strongly about issues like inequality in homeownership and higher education, and relishes any opportunity to demystify government programs. Prior to NerdWallet, she wrote about home remodeling, decor and maintenance for This Old House.
