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Mortgage rates went up today as the Iran war and resulting inflation continues to rattle financial markets.
The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.22% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is nine basis points higher than yesterday and 12 basis points higher than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.
Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East drag on with no end in sight. A blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted oil flows, pushing today’s crude prices to their highest since the war began. As a result, concerns about inflation are intensifying. Inflation tends to lift bond yields and, in turn, mortgage costs.
Mortgage rates’ movements over March and April have been primarily driven by U.S. markets’ reactions to what’s going on in Iran. For more on how that works, keep reading below the chart.
Average mortgage rates, last 30 days
📉 When will mortgage rates drop?
Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news … you name it.
Day-to-day events in the Iran war have been a key driver for mortgage rates since the conflict’s onset, as investors’ reactions to geopolitical turmoil move the markets. You might be thinking “But wait, the stock market’s been doing amazing,” and yes, lately it has — but mortgage rates track the bond market, and the bond market’s had a much rougher go of it.
This week brought a couple of non-war developments that would normally help set the direction for mortgage rates. Yesterday, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady — a widely expected move amid economic uncertainty.
But markets quickly shifted focus after today’s release of March’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, or PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The data came in as bleak as expected, with inflation rising to 3.2% — the highest in more than two years — reinforcing concerns that war-driven energy prices are rippling through the economy to squeeze everyday costs.
“Goods inflation, which includes gas, drove the bulk of the increase in March, but transportation services also quickened, suggesting that some of these services could be pricing in elevated oil prices too,” says Elizabeth Renter, NerdWallet Senior Economist.
Inflation fears are what’s been messing with the bond market, since when the dollar’s value erodes, so do bonds’ set returns. Ironically though, if it looks like inflation’s really setting in, that could end up good for mortgage rates — though not so good for everything else.
Why? When inflation’s entrenched enough that consumers and businesses anticipate higher prices and scale back their spending, that can potentially put enough drag on the economy to slow inflation. But that kind of shift could also potentially tip the economy into a serious slowdown, if not a full-on recession.
In that environment, we’d be more likely to see lower mortgage rates, as Federal Reserve policy would likely shift to rate cutting to encourage spending. But all of that would be a hefty price to pay for lower mortgage interest rates.
We’ve seen mortgage rates ebb somewhat in April as markets have gotten less jumpy about speculative headlines about Iran. That’s not too bad if you’re a homeowner looking to refinance, since you can bide your time and get your documents ready to go as soon as you see a mortgage rate you like.
But if you’re hoping to buy or sell a home this spring, this sense that rates could turn on a headline (or a social media post) is unsettling. You may need to think through how much uncertainty you can weather, and focus on what’s under your control, like your down payment savings or who you choose to be your real estate agent.
Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).
With rates where they are right now, you could start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.72% or higher.
Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.
If you’re looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet’s refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.
🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?
There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.
If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.
NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.
If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.
Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.
🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.
🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?
The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won’t match every buyer’s circumstances.
In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:
Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.
👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?
Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.
About the author
Abby Badach Doyle has been writing about homeownership and mortgages for NerdWallet since 2022. Her work has been featured in outlets including The Associated Press, The Washington Post and The Seattle Times. From interactive tools to practical advice, Abby is passionate about making the homebuying journey less stressful — especially for first-time buyers.
As a reporter, she is interested in writing about innovative housing solutions (like co-living) and personal stories about how homeownership builds community and a sense of belonging.
Abby is also a musician, songwriter and producer who knows the challenge of balancing creative fulfillment with financial stability. In 2024, she produced a special episode of NerdWallet’s “Smart Money” podcast on how to navigate income swings in a creative career.
Abby is based in Pittsburgh, a city defined by working-class grit and neighborly spirit. When she’s not writing about personal finance, she’s at her urban homestead: playing fiddle, raising chickens and preserving the bounty from her garden.
