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Mortgage interest rates fell slightly today, though they remain higher than where they started this year.
The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.31% APR, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. This is three basis points lower than yesterday and 14 basis points lower than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.
Mortgage rates change every day, and right now, they’re especially volatile thanks to oil price instability. It’s not worthwhile to try and time the market for a dramatic rate drop. What matters is if you can afford today’s rate. If you can, don’t be afraid to lock it in — you can always refinance later if rates fall.
While the economy never sleeps, markets are closed on the weekends. The rates you see Friday are unlikely to change much (if at all) until Monday.
Average mortgage rates, last 30 days
📉 When will mortgage rates drop?
Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news … you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March jobs report this morning, revealing much stronger gains than expected (+178,000 vs. a projected +59,000).
“This labor market data is not showing any impact of the war in Iran, yet. Should the conflict continue, we will likely begin to see those effects on the labor market around May or June,” says Elizabeth Renter, NerdWallet Senior Economist.
“So this and the next jobs report will probably look like many of those in the recent past: mediocre — neither alarming nor impressive.”
The Federal Reserve is unlikely to view the current not-alarming, not-impressive employment landscape as a major threat to the economy. With jobs demoted in priority, central bankers can really focus on inflation.
Next week will bring two major inflation reports — the February Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) and March Consumer Price Index (CPI). If the CPI data shows that the war in Iran (and the subsequent spikes in oil prices) are putting upward pressure on inflation, analysts will likely lose hope for any rate cuts through the remainder of this year.
Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).
With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.81% or higher.
Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.
If you’re looking for a lower rate, use NerdWallet’s refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.
🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?
There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.
If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.
NerdWallet’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.
If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.
Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.
🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.
🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?
The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won’t match every buyer’s circumstances.
In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:
Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.
👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?
Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.
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About the author
Taylor Getler is a home and mortgages writer for NerdWallet. Her work has been featured in outlets such as MarketWatch, Yahoo Finance, MSN and Nasdaq. Taylor is enthusiastic about financial literacy and helping consumers make smart, informed choices with their money.
