According to a new survey by the British Universities International Liaison Association (BUILA), enrolments across UK universities were down by an average of 31% compared with January 2025, with the steepest declines reported across South Asian markets.
Some 70% of UK universities reported a fall in international students starting postgraduate courses in the January 2026 intake, as institutions tighten recruitment ahead of tougher visa compliance rules due to come into force this summer.
The findings come ahead of the government’s planned rollout of a new traffic light system from June as part of the Basic Compliance Assessment (BCA) framework, which will assess institutions against stricter visa refusal thresholds.
Under the framework, universities must maintain strict visa, enrolment and course completion thresholds to retain a “green” status, while those rated amber will be unable to grow student numbers and red-rated institutions will face UKVI action plans, CAS cuts and the loss of key sponsorship privileges.
Ahead of the measures coming into force, many universities surveyed by BUILA said they had already taken pre-emptive action to remain within the new thresholds.
Around a third reported restricting recruitment in certain markets to reduce risk, while 58% said they had enhanced credibility checks or raised interview thresholds, with a further third introducing higher deposits or stricter financial checks.
Despite these tighter internal controls, 60% of universities reported higher-than-usual levels of visa refusals from UK Visas and Immigration (UKVI) during the January intake.
Forty-one percent also raised concerns over unexplained delays and interview scheduling issues, while more than a third said refusal reasons appeared inconsistent with applicant quality.
This is in line with previous reporting by The PIE, which revealed that the Home Office had written to UK universities explaining that “mandatory checks” had caused “unavoidable delays” for students hoping to enrol in the January intake.
Delegates at The PIE Live Europe 2026 also heard the UK’s international education champion Sir Steve Smith warn that “further visa brakes” could follow after the government halted study visa issuance to nationals from Afghanistan, Myanmar, Cameroon and Sudan earlier last month.
According to the BUILA survey, the sharpest declines were seen in higher-risk markets, with 82% of universities reporting a fall in enrolments from Pakistan, where numbers were down by an average of 75%. Meanwhile, 76% reported a drop from India and 65% from Bangladesh.
Half of the universities surveyed also said they currently expect to receive at least one non-green rating under the new compliance framework, raising concerns about the potential impact on institutional growth and global reputation if the system is implemented without further refinement.
This survey shows universities narrowing recruitment simply to manage risk, at a time when they are also facing higher refusal rates from UKVI, delays and inconsistent decision-making outside their controlAndrew Bird, BUILA
The findings have raised concerns that genuine students could increasingly be discouraged from choosing the UK at a time when competition from other destinations remains intense.
Ahead of the measures coming into force, BUILA is urging the UK government to treat “amber” ratings as an internal warning rather than a sanctions trigger, while better accounting for systemic issues such as visa processing delays.
In addition, the association has called on UKVI to provide more detailed reasons for visa refusals, greater transparency in decision-making, and early-warning intelligence on emerging market trends so that institutions can respond proportionately and in real time.
“This survey shows universities narrowing recruitment simply to manage risk, at a time when they are also facing higher refusal rates from UKVI, delays and inconsistent decision-making outside their control,” said Andrew Bird, chair, BUILA.
“That is why BUILA is calling for a more proportionate and transparent framework, so standards are upheld without undermining the UK’s long-term competitiveness and global standing.”
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