Recent data from the Chinese Ministry of Education (MOE) showed China’s outbound mobility rate fall to its lowest point in a decade last year, as experts say rising costs, visa disruptions and increasing domestic options will bring continued stabilisation.
“The market is entering a new phase: smaller in volume, but more rational, more diversified, and more quality‑conscious,” Charles Sun, founder of China Education International, told The PIE News.
“Looking ahead, I expect outbound numbers to stabilise rather than continue falling sharply,” said Sun, noting that while levels are far below the peak of 2019, Chinese families’ willingness to invest in international education remained “strong”.
The figures mark the first student data release on outbound student mobility from the MOE since 2020, revealing some 570,000 Chinese students were studying internationally in 2025 – a near 20% decline from the 2019 high.
From 2016 to 2019, Chinese outbound student numbers grew steadily from 544,500 to 703,500, followed by a period of dramatic fluctuations during Covid, after which recovery was partial in 2022 and 2023 – according to estimates from sources outside the MOE.
The return to 2016 levels represents “official confirmation that the market has reset, not collapsed”, said Sun.
Bonard China branch director Graze Zhu agreed the data reflects a shift from rapid expansion to a period of stability, with future steep declines “unlikely to occur”.
“What we are seeing is not a ‘return to the past’ but the emergence of a new normal: smaller, smarter, more diversified, and more closely integrated with China’s domestic education system,” said Sun.
Among other factors, rising economic pressure has been a major cause of the decline, as increased global prices and shrinking budgets have caused families to place greater emphasis on the cost-effectiveness of studying abroad, said Zhu.
According to Sun, the average study abroad budget among Chinese students reached 605,000 BMB this year – upwards of £65,000 and the highest it’s been in over a decade.
Meanwhile, as the quality of China’s domestic education and career opportunities have risen “the employment advantages of overseas returnees are no longer obvious”, said Zhu, noting that companies are increasingly favouring practical skills over international diplomas.
She highlighted recent efforts of the MOE to support students coming back to China, including its analysis of employment trends for returning graduates and the launch of a national employment service platform for overseas returnees.
This is particularly significant given China’s rising student return rate, with nearly nine in 10 Chinese overseas graduates now coming back home after completing their studies.
What we are seeing is not a ‘return to the past’ but the emergence of a new normal
Charles Sun, China Education International
External factors are also playing a part, as Sun highlighted it was “harder to expect a friendly study experience” across traditional English-speaking study destinations where visa policies have tightened significantly in recent years.
While the US remains the number one source destination for Chinese students, numbers have been on a steady downward trajectory since 2019, with heightened scrutiny from the Trump administration driving sharper declines.
The increasingly strained relationship has seen US colleges step back from partnerships in China, alongside Washington’s proposal to designate Chinese student groups as “foreign missions” and multiple unmaterialised threats to restrict visa issuance for Chinese students.
What’s more, while Canada continues to reduce student numbers through its study permit caps, Sun said the incoming International Student levy at English had “created confusion and an image of a greedy UK” among prospective Chinese students.
Elsewhere, student visa limits and heightened fees in Australia have caused a dramatic chilling effect on Chinese student interest, with institutions recording a 39% year-on-year drop in Chinese applications in February 2026.
Amid heightened domestic tensions around housing and immigration, Sun said Australia was considered by many in China as a “businessman rather than educator”, emphasising that “everybody is trying to extract money from international students”.
But beyond global visa restrictions, Sun said changing behaviours of Chinese students and families was “perhaps the most important” cause, with families increasingly prioritising ROI, safety and career prospects rather than “chasing prestige”.
“This more rational, outcomes‑focused mindset is leading many to choose destinations closer to home – Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia – or to adopt ‘multi‑country application’ strategies to spread risk,” said Sun.
Meanwhile, after the Chinese government announced ambitions to grow TNE enrolments from 800,000 to eight million, the country has seen an influx of TNE projects, providing further education options for domestic students within China.
Beijing’s recent openness to TNE opportunities has caught sector attention and is one explanation as to why the MOE decided to publish outbound data showing a cooling of traditional student mobility: “creating a logical argument for why TNE expansion is needed,” said Sun.
The release comes amid broader efforts from the Chinese government to restore confidence in its data reporting across multiple sectors after a period of pandemic-related disruption.
Though Sun confirmed it was “not a defensive data release” but a “strategic” one – sending a clear message to international partners that while outbound demand remains strong, China is bolstering its domestic education and graduate job market.
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