Key Takeaways
Betmgm said 94% of semifinal qualification money backed France.France was Draftkings and Betmgm’s largest remaining outright liability.Polymarket and Kalshi World Cup winner markets topped $5.5B in volume.
Prediction markets logged billions but did not take the same side
France’s surprise World Cup elimination delivered a favorable result for major sportsbooks after Spain defeated the tournament favorite 2-0 in Tuesday’s semifinal. Draftkings and Betmgm told Front Office Sports that France represented their largest remaining liability in the outright winner market, while Fanduel said France had attracted the most money among the teams still alive before kickoff.
Betmgm’s exposure was even more concentrated on the semifinal itself. The operator reported that 94% of the money in its qualification market backed France to reach the final. Mbappé was also the most popular anytime goalscorer at Draftkings and Betmgm during the tournament, while Betmgm said wagers on him to score against Spain outnumbered those on any other player by five to one. He and his team finished the semifinal without a goal instead.
The operators did not disclose the dollar value of the liabilities erased by Spain’s victory, making the result impossible to translate into a verified sportsbook profit figure. Still, the imbalance means losing France outright tickets and unsuccessful Mbappé props remained with the books, while bets on Spain and other winning outcomes had to be paid.
France’s elimination also settled substantial activity on Polymarket and Kalshi, but the platforms operate differently from sportsbooks. Their users generally trade yes-or-no contracts against one another, while the exchanges generate revenue through fees rather than retaining every losing customer position. The platforms therefore benefited primarily from the volume generated by France’s run, not from Spain producing an upset. A single dollar may also be traded repeatedly before settlement, meaning prediction-market volume is not equivalent to money staked at a sportsbook.
Polymarket’s winner market has generated approximately $4.28 billion in trading volume, while Kalshi’s corresponding market has surpassed $1.22 billion. Polymarket’s rules state that a team’s contract resolves immediately to “No” once it becomes impossible for that team to win the tournament, making France’s semifinal defeat the settlement trigger for its outstanding winner contracts.
France had become the prediction markets’ consensus favorite well before the semifinal. On July 5, it traded at a 35.4% implied probability on Polymarket, with more than $94.5 million in team-specific volume, while Kalshi priced France at a nearly identical 35.5%. That earlier snapshot shows how much confidence traders had placed in the team before Spain ended its campaign.
The tournament has already driven record activity across the sector. Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US recorded a combined $44.8 billion in June trading volume, up 75% from May, as the World Cup became prediction markets’ largest sustained sports- liquidity event. France’s defeat shows the divide between the two models: sportsbooks benefited from the public backing the wrong favorite, while prediction exchanges profited from traders continuing to buy and sell the uncertainty, regardless of who they picked as the victor.
