Polymarket traders think SpaceX will cross $2 trillion market cap

SpaceX is set to debut on the Nasdaq on Friday, and traders on the prediction market platform Polymarket are confident shares will pop. 

The Elon Musk-led rocket company is expected to price at $135 per share, already giving it a market value of $1.77 trillion. But traders think there’s a high probability it’ll zoom well north of there on its first day of trading.  

There’s an 84% chance that SpaceX will close above $1.8 trillion in market cap, according to Polymarket traders. Odds that SpaceX will surpass $2 trillion stand at 69%.

Based on an expected initial market cap of $1.77 trillion, a capitalization of roughly $2 trillion would equate to a 13% rally in SpaceX Friday. Pre-IPO perpetual futures on Hyperliquid indicate that SpaceX could jump more than 20% in its first day of trading.

Traders are more skeptical that SpaceX will close with a market value above $2.2 trillion, giving it less than a 50-50 chance. 

A close above $2 trillion would put SpaceX in an exclusive club. Only five other U.S. companies — Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon — have valuations north of $2 trillion. 

SpaceX $2 trillion would also put it ahead of chip giant Broadcom‘s valuation of $1.85 trillion. Even at the expected initial valuation of $1.77 trillion, SpaceX would prove larger than Musk’s electric vehicle flagship. Tesla’s market value was about $1.72 trillion late Thursday, according to FactSet data.