ICICI Bank shares fall 10% in 6 months. Here’s why Motilal Oswal sees 41% upside potential

ICICI Bank is well-positioned to sustain sector leadership with a healthy growth outlook and robust asset quality, said Motilal Oswal Financial Services while naming the heavyweight private lender its top ‘Buy’ within the banking sector even after the stock tumbled 10% in six months.

The shares of ICICI Bank gained over 1% on Thursday to trade at Rs 1,258.40 apiece on NSE. The stock has however fallen over 1% in one week and 6% in 2026 so far. The stock has fallen more than 12% in one year.

Despite the muted returns, Motilal Oswal maintained its bullish call for the shares of ICICI Bank. The domestic brokerage said that the private lender is well-positioned to sustain its growth momentum while maintaining profitability benchmarks. It expects the bank to deliver a 16% loan CAGR over FY26-FY28, led by strong growth in business banking and PL, while the corporate segment is also expected to witness healthy traction, supported by working capital demand.

ICICI Bank’s liability franchise continues to remain best-in-class, supported by diversified acquisition engines and a rapidly expanding physical network, Motilal said. With a domestic CD ratio of 85.5% and LCR of 126%, the brokerage added that the bank is well placed to capitalize on growth opportunities compared to peers.

“ICICI Bank is likely to maintain cost leadership despite meaningful investments in technology, customer delivery, analytics, and talent. ICICIBC’s asset quality remains robust, supported by disciplined underwriting, continued monitoring, and strong recoveries, while the bank maintains a healthy contingency buffer (0.9% of loans). The bank currently does not face additional portfolio stress from the West Asia crisis or ECL transition. Credit costs are, thus, expected to remain contained, with GNPA/NNPA improving to ~1.4%/0.3% by FY28E,” Motilal said.

Motilal Oswal on ICICI Bank share price

The brokerage acknowledged that ICICI Bank shares have delivered tepid performance over the past year, reflecting broader derating across large banking stocks amid persistent FII selling. However, with operating performance holding strong and sustained market share gains across key lending segments, Motilal expects a gradual rerating.

It maintained its ‘Buy’ call on the stock, with a target price of Rs 1,750 apiece. This implies an upside potential of nearly 41% from the stock’s previous closing price of Rs 1,242 apiece on NSE.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)