Paxton Win in Texas Cements the MAGA Shift

It hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing for President Donald Trump, of late, but each time the political left breathlessly proclaims MAGA is dead or dying, midterm primary results prove them wrong. On May 26, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) in a runoff to determine who will face Democrat James Talarico for Cornyn’s seat in November.

Cornyn isn’t exactly an anti-Trumper, though that might change after the president put the final nail in the coffin of his Senate career by endorsing his primary opponent. Still, the 26-year senator definitely put himself in the political crosshairs.

MAGA Responds to Trump Endorsement

It’s a conservative principles litmus test, of sorts. For Cornyn’s part, it may have been his assertion in 2023 that Trump was a spent force and couldn’t possibly make it back to the White House. Or perhaps it was eagerness to work with Democrats under Joe Biden on stricter gun laws. Whatever it was – and it’s a combination of several factors, probably – Cornyn did not make the MAGA grade. Those who don’t, at least politically, have been dropping like flies over the past few election cycles.

In the original primary in March, Cornyn finished first with 42%, and Paxton earned his runoff spot with 40.5%. Though the Lone Star State’s attorney general has always been a MAGA loyalist, he did not get Trump’s endorsement until just days before the runoff. How much of a difference did that make? When the Associated Press called the race for Paxton on Tuesday evening, he had 62.5% of the votes. Cornyn had just 37.5%.

Clearly, the president’s endorsement stirred his MAGA base in Texas into action. And perhaps it was not so much a swell of support for Paxton, who has in the past been dogged by scandal, as it was a message –  one that has been delivered many times now, across the country: if you’re an elected Republican and you’re not on the Trump train, you’re out.

Paxton and the Curse of O’Rourke

Can Paxton prevail in November against Talarico? Republicans are nervous, and this one is a crucial race as the GOP looks to at least preserve its slim Senate majority. Still, this could be a Beto O’Rourke redux. Democrats had such high hopes for the effusive and often unfiltered self-styled Irish Mexican, but he turned out to be just too radical for Texas tastes. In O’Rourke’s case, it was probably his bold prediction, “Hell yes, we’re going to take your AR-15s” that sank his bid for the Senate. Talarico has similar issues. Insisting that there are six genders in a mostly deep red and deeply Christian state may well prove to be too much for Lone Star voters to swallow.

The president had another reason to smirk on Tuesday. Due to redistricting, Texas Democrat Al Green – one of the most vocal and disruptive anti-Trump voices in the US House of Representatives – found himself fighting over a seat with fellow Democrat incumbent Christian Menefee. That primary also went to a runoff, and Menefee had 68.9% of the votes to Green’s 31.1% when the race was called. The 78-year-old Green’s 21-year House run has come to an end. He has waved his cane at Trump and been ejected from a State of the Union address for the last time.

So, despite some pain at the pump, a conflict with Iran that has already gone on for too long, and the increasing price tag of Washington, DC, renovation projects, the MAGA movement is showing no real signs of coming apart, contrary to the rumors. But perhaps the real stress test comes in November.