By Brandon Smith
For those who haven’t followed the shifting relationship between Washington and Europe closely, something important is happening beneath the surface of ordinary diplomacy.
The U.S. and Western Europe are no longer moving in lockstep. On trade, energy, immigration, defense spending and relations with China, old assumptions are starting to break down. That does not mean open conflict is inevitable. But it does mean the post-Cold War alliance many Americans grew up taking for granted is under real strain.
And when major alliances strain, the consequences rarely stay confined to diplomats and defense ministers. They show up in energy prices, trade policy, currency pressure and the cost of everyday life.
As I’ve noted in recent articles, the European distaste for U.S. policy has solidified. From anti-woke reforms and immigration policy to foreign interactions, when Americans voted en masse to remove the Biden regime, Europe became more adversarial.
In my view, the deeper issue is not simply a disagreement between presidents, prime ministers or parties. It is a disagreement over sovereignty.
A growing number of European leaders appear far more comfortable with centralized authority – over borders, speech, energy policy and economic regulation – than many American citizens are willing to accept. That divide helps explain why U.S.-Europe tensions have become sharper than a normal diplomatic disagreement. European governments aren’t accustomed to a citizenry that stand up and resist infringements on their liberties.
Americans like me, who favor national sovereignty, border enforcement, domestic energy production and smaller government find ourselves sharply at odds with Europe’s governing consensus. That is a real philosophical as well as a political divide. But it is also an economic one – because the policies at stake affect energy supply, trade flows, fiscal pressure and long-term financial stability.
First, it’s important to outline how we got to this point so that we can better understand why the conflict is escalating so rapidly.
A transatlantic alliance under pressure
One of Europe’s most divisive debates since 2014 has been immigration. Progressive supporters argue that migration can help offset aging populations and labor shortages. Note the “can” in that statement – it’s not a certainty.
Conservative critics argue that the scale and speed of migration have strained public services – everything from housing to social programs, wages and schools. Although the left considers it “bad taste” to discuss the issue of national culture and identity, conservatives worry that mass immigration threatens their nation’s cultural identity. More practically, they ask whether immigration is a net economic benefit or not?
The economic question is legitimate and should be answerable: Has Europe’s immigration model strengthened its labor markets, or added pressure to already fragile welfare systems?
That is where the discussion belongs – not in slogans, but in measurable outcomes: Employment, productivity and economic gains vs. welfare costs, housing demand and the like.
Two arguments have been used repeatedly to justify Europe’s migration policies:
First, that wealthy Western nations have a moral obligation to absorb large numbers of migrants (because of historical colonialism).
Second, that immigration is economically necessary because Europe’s native-born populations are aging and its labor force is shrinking.
Both arguments deserve scrutiny. Moral obligation is a political claim. Economic necessity is an empirical claim – and empirical claims should be tested against real-world results.
To address the first lie, the vast majority of migrants entering Europe from the third world are not traveling from war torn countries. This narrative was a fabrication by liberals in Europe in order to grease the wheels for public support of open borders. Furthermore, the argument that western nations are somehow required to compensate the rest of the world for their geopolitical success is a fallacy.
Nations have the right to decide who enters, who stays and under what conditions. That is not a radical principle. It is the foundation of sovereignty. The question for Europe is whether its leaders made those decisions with the consent of their citizens – and whether the economic results have matched the promises.
The second lie is much more complicated. Europe’s leaders have often defended mass immigration as an economic necessity – a way to offset aging populations and shrinking workforces. But that argument deserves scrutiny. Immigration can expand a labor force, but only if migrants are successfully integrated into productive employment. If employment rates lag, welfare costs rise and housing pressures worsen, then the promised economic benefits become much harder to prove. And therefore subject to obfuscation…
I don’t believe Europe needs immigrants to boost the economy. I believe their economies are, by and large, stagnant and moribund due to the toxic combination of government intrusiveness and extreme taxation. If a government punishes success with oceans of red tape and confiscatory tax rates, can we really believe that government cares about “boosting the economy”? I think not –European nations seem much more interested in control than in prosperity.
This leads me to wonder, what if immigrants are useful for something else instead? An agenda which is not yet clear?
Europe’s economic strain is bigger than immigration
It has long been my position that the globalists in Europe intend on integrating into a wider opposition bloc, a coalition against nationalists, free markets, meritocracy, free democracy, etc. Evidence suggests that this coalition will include China as well as more developed elements of Asia with their eyes on resource rich regions of Africa.
Russia is a wild card. Europe’s leaders are ravenous, they want a greater war and they see Ukraine as the best opportunity. That said, this does not mean Russia is our friend.
I believe European leaders want the establishment of a “new world order” in which national borders are erased and green authoritarian socialism is enforced under a globally centralized bureaucracy. There are many ways to go about achieving this agenda.
For example, the globalists have tried implementing international climate change laws and carbon controls as a means to limit industry and dominate energy resources. I would argue that this plan has failed as it becomes more and more clear to the public that global warming science is mostly propaganda, and the majority of the opposition has come from the U.S.
They tried medical tyranny, using pandemic hysteria through perpetual lockdowns and vaccine passports. This also failed, with twenty-two red states blocking the mandates with various pieces of legislation. If they couldn’t get the U.S. to comply, then the rest of the world would see that a nation could operate perfectly fine without Covid controls.
They also tried to lure the U.S. into a war against Russia to function as a meat shield in Ukraine. This would trap America in a perpetual quagmire in the best case scenario, weakening the U.S. while Europe is strengthened through years of resource infusions. This plan also seems to have failed. The American public has zero interest in entering the Ukrainian theater or going to war with Russia without a substantial reason.
A fourth tactic is mass immigration, which has been much more successful. The U.S. suffered under the Biden administration and now we are faced with a long uphill battle to deport millions of illegals. On the upside, border crossings have dropped by 95%.
Europe has been overwhelmed by a third-world incursion. Between 50 million and 60 million migrants now reside in the region, making up around 20% of Western Europe’s total population. But is this just globalist sabotage of the west? Or, does this army of migrants serve another purpose?
As an economic resource they are a net negative. If the idea is for migrants to increase the labor pool and fill traditional jobs, then there is no positive return. Reuters tells us Germany’s unemployment rate has climbed to 6.4% and 54% of the unemployed are migrants. These people are NOT filling quotas and or increasing the labor pool in a meaningful way. In fact, they take far more in welfare subsidies than they contribute in economic activity.
The same goes for Spain, where the unemployment rate is 10%, yet the far-left Spanish government continues to flood the country with foreigners. According to the BBC, the UK’s unemployment rate has climbed to 5% and 22% of the unemployed are foreign nationals on welfare.
The decline is present all across the EU; economic growth is stagnating. So, why would I suggest that the elites view the migrants as a resource rather than mere tools for deconstructing the west? What if sheer numbers and a broad population increase is useful for events that have not yet occurred?
What if world war is still on the table, or an economic collapse followed by globalist consolidation? What if European leaders see millions of extra bodies as a valuable resource to feed that war, or control the citizenry at home? Is mass immigration just about cultural replacement? Or, are third worlders being lured into the west with promises of easy plunder, only to be caught up as cannon fodder in a future conflict?
Have the globalists placed their bets on the foreign hordes and the power of cheap labor (or cheap soldiers) as the key to victory?
Energy is becoming the new fault line
This brings us to the most important economic fault line in the U.S.-Europe divide: Energy.
Energy is not just another sector. It is the base layer of modern life. It determines what it costs to manufacture goods, ship groceries, heat homes, run farms, fuel trucks and keep factories open. A nation with secure energy supplies has options. A nation dependent on fragile supply chains and imported fuel has vulnerabilities.
The move on Iran is clearly the catalyst for the U.S. shift into energy dominance. Consider for a moment the insane geopolitical changes and energy market mutations that have happened in just the past few months.
Venezuela is now under new leadership and shipping oil to the U.S., handily countering China’s covert influence over the nation. Trump has been engaging with Panama to dramatically reduce Chinese influence over canal operations, again, letting the CCP know they aren’t welcome in the western hemisphere.
Canada may become another pressure point. If Ottawa pursues closer energy or trade arrangements with Europe and China while U.S. policymakers are trying to consolidate North American supply chains, tensions could rise. That does not mean conflict is likely. It means energy policy is becoming inseparable from national security policy.
Reuters tells us the war with Iran has led to the UAE leaving OPEC after 60 years of membership. This matters because the UAE is the world’s #4 oil producing nation. This truly surprising move has Russia nervously asking whether this could be the end of OPEC itself. The UAE aspires to increase oil production by 50% in the short-term, which would have a massive effect on global prices. If that crude can get to refineries.
Recent turmoil around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz has reminded the world how fragile energy markets can be. Even rumors of disruption in a critical shipping lane can ripple through prices, production decisions and diplomatic strategy.
That is why energy security matters. The U.S. does not need to control every barrel of oil in the world. But it does need enough domestic and allied supply to avoid being held hostage by hostile regimes, cartel politics or shipping chokepoints.
Reasonable people can disagree about the wisdom of U.S. involvement in the Middle East. But the energy question remains either way: instability around Iran, the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz has direct consequences for global fuel costs, shipping costs and inflation pressure.
Iran is where the division between the globalists in Europe and conservative leaders in the U.S. becomes undeniable. Why didn’t European elites immediately jump on board with the Iran war and the effort to control the Strait of Hormuz. They supported every other war in the Middle East from 2001 onward. With Iran, they’ve tried to undermine the U.S. every step of the way.
We know for a fact that Europe’s leadership is not operating from the same playbook as U.S. politicians. They’re incredibly dependent on imported energy. A brief glance at history shows us they’re much more exposed to regional conflict. Their top-heavy bureaucracies are more interested in maintaining their regulatory models than in improving the lives of their citizens. If you just look at their rhetoric and behavior throughout the Iran conflict, it looks like they want the U.S. to fail. Not because they disagree with the war necessarily… I believe they don’t want the U.S. to gain an edge in energy dominance.
Remember: The Strait of Hormuz is still a chokepoint for global energy flows regardless of who controls it. Europe is very aware of their energy dependence yet lacks the political will to secure global shipping lanes. (Or to help the U.S. do so.)
U.S. operations against the regimes in Venezuela and Iran are choking energy supplies to China, the U.S.’s only real geopolitical rival. Europe
NATO may survive. Trade negotiations may stabilize. Europe may correct course internally. None of this is predetermined.
But it would be a mistake to ignore the direction of travel. The U.S. and Europe are arguing over the very things that determine economic resilience: energy, borders, trade, defense spending, regulation and China. Those disputes can raise costs, disrupt supply chains and add another layer of uncertainty to an already fragile global economy.
For American families, the lesson is not to panic. It is to recognize that the world is becoming less predictable. When governments strain alliances, inflate debts and politicize energy supplies, savers are left carrying risks they did not create.
That is why diversification matters. Despite what the financial news channels say, physical precious metals are not a bet on war or collapse. They’re a way to set part of your savings outside the influence of economic uncertainty, currency pressures and geopolitical shocks that seem to be multiplying around us.
Why geopolitical instability matters for American families
Most Americans do not spend their day thinking about NATO, OPEC, the Strait of Hormuz, European elections or Chinese influence over trade routes. They are thinking about grocery bills, insurance premiums, fuel costs, their paychecks and whether their savings will still hold up a few years from now.
Here’s what I want you to understand: These two worlds are connected. Energy instability raises costs. Trade conflict disrupts supply chains. Government debt limits flexibility. Political fragmentation makes long-term planning harder.
That is the part too many analysts miss. Geopolitics is not an abstraction. It eventually joins you at the dinner table – whether you follow the games nations play or not.
No one can know exactly how the U.S.-Europe divide will play out. But we can see enough to say the old assumptions are weakening. Alliances are less automatic. Energy is more strategic. Financial pressure is more global.
In that environment, physical precious metals deserve consideration not because they promise certainty, but because they’re outside the political and financial systems creating so much uncertainty in the first place. If you haven’t seriously considered diversifying your savings with physical gold and silver, I respectfully suggest you do so sooner rather than later. Like the grasshopper in the fable, you have all the time in the world – until it’s too late.
