U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran may have increased its weapons stockpile “a little bit” during the two-week ceasefire, but added that U.S. forces could neutralize it within a day.
Crude oil price on April 24
Brent crude futures climbed $1.23, or 1.17%, to $106.3 per barrel by 0107 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate rose $1.07, or 1.12%, to $96.92. Both benchmarks had already settled more than 3% higher on Thursday, surging nearly $5 a barrel after reports of air defence activity over Tehran and indications of a power struggle within Iran between hardliners and moderates.The standoff has increasingly taken the form of competing naval pressures, with both the U.S. and Iran seeking economic leverage to strengthen their negotiating positions.
Iran continues to insist that vessels obtain its permission before passing through the strait, while Trump claimed the U.S. has “total control” over the waterway. At the same time, the U.S. Navy has maintained a blockade targeting Iranian ports and vessels.Separately, Israel’s defence minister said Jerusalem is awaiting U.S. approval to resume military action against Iran and “complete the elimination of the Khamenei dynasty.” Trump also stated in a social media post that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to extend their ceasefire by three weeks following a high-level meeting at the White House.
Where are prices headed?
A Haitong Futures note cited by Reuters said that the ceasefire phase increasingly appears to be a buildup toward further conflict. It added that if U.S.-Iran negotiations fail to make meaningful progress by the end of April and hostilities resume, oil prices could hit new highs for the year.
Macquarie estimates that crude prices could remain supported in the $85 to $90 range in the near term, with a gradual rise towards $110 as supply conditions improve. It also cautioned that prolonged disruptions through April could push Brent prices as high as $150 per barrel.
Nuvama Institutional Equities added that an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries around 20 million barrels per day, could drive crude prices into the $110 to $150 range.
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