Pakistan: Caught in the Iran-Israel-US Crossfire?

How Pakistani citizens perceive and are experiencing the Iran–Israel–U.S. conflict

Pakistan occupies a unique position in the Iran–Israel–U.S. conflict. As Iran’s immediate neighbour, a nuclear-armed state, a major recipient of Chinese investment through CPEC, and a long-standing U.S. security partner, it sits at the intersection of every fault line this conflict has exposed. In early March 2026, GeoPoll surveyed 626 Pakistani citizens as part of a broader six-country study. The results reveal the most polarised and consistently intense responses of any country in the dataset.

Who Is to Blame for the Conflict? Israel, Overwhelmingly

Sixty-three percent of Pakistani respondents hold Israel most responsible for the conflict – the highest figure for any country in the survey and nearly double the six-country average (38%). A further 20% blame the United States, while only 5% point to Iran. The framing is clear: for most Pakistanis, this is a war waged by Israel and the U.S., not against them.

63%

of Pakistanis blame Israel: the highest of any country surveyed

Sympathy Tilts Sharply Toward Iran

Related to the finding above, Pakistan registers the strongest pro-Iran sympathy in the dataset at 82% – nearly double the overall average of 43% and the single highest figure for any question-country combination in the study. Just 3% express sympathy for Israel. This reflects deep religious and cultural affinity, shared borders, and decades of people-to-people ties. It is also consistent with Pakistan’s diplomatic positioning, which has historically sought to balance its Western security partnerships with its identity as a Muslim-majority state.

Fear of Escalation Is Acute

Eighty-six percent of Pakistani respondents believe the conflict could lead to a wider global war, which is not abstract anxiety. Pakistan shares a border with Iran, has its own nuclear arsenal, and is acutely aware that regional escalation could draw it in directly. The nuclear dimension resonates deeply, with 70% of respondents across all six countries view nuclear weapons use as likely, and Pakistan’s own nuclear status makes this fear personal rather than theoretical.

86%

fear the conflict could escalate into a global war

Pakistan is Experiencing the Worst Economic Pain

Pakistan reports the most severe economic impact of any country surveyed. Eighty-five percent say the conflict has significantly affected fuel prices, consistent with the government’s historic Rs 55 per liter fuel price hike on 6 March 2026, directly attributed to regional supply disruptions. Fifty percent cite inflation and cost of living as the single most significant economic consequence, the highest of any country.

Nearly three-quarters (73%) of Pakistani respondents report some form of personal impact from the conflict, far exceeding any other country. As one respondent put it: “It’s worrisome as we are in alliance with the States so we could be hit next.”

A Geopolitical Realignment: China Up, U.S. Complicated

Pakistan’s relationship with global powers is shifting. Forty-four percent now view China more favourably as a result of the conflict – the largest positive shift of any country – and 49% trust China most to act in Pakistan’s and the world’s interests. This is more than double any other country-body combination except Kenya’s and Nigeria’s trust in the UN.

Views of the U.S. are more nuanced than might be expected. While 33% view the U.S. less favourably, an equal 33% say their view is unchanged, and 20% actually view the U.S. more favourably. Pakistan is the only country where a significant share (39%) believes the U.S. is primarily serving Israel’s interests rather than its own.

Russia also benefits: 33% of Pakistanis view Russia more favourably, the highest positive shift for Russia in the dataset. China’s non-interventionist positioning and its deep economic ties through CPEC are clearly paying reputational dividends.

What Pakistani Citizens Want: Peace – and Support for Iran

Pakistan is the only country in the survey where a large share (42%) explicitly wants their government to support Iran, nearly equalling the 44% who call for peace negotiations. In every other country, peace negotiations command a clear majority. This split reflects the depth of religious and geopolitical solidarity with Iran, and suggests that any Pakistani government response perceived as neutral or Western-aligned could face significant public backlash.

On institutional trust, 35% look to the UN and 31% to China as most capable of resolving the conflict. Only 9% trust the United States. As one respondent noted: “Our country Pakistan is still sitting silent and foreign policy support is neutral.”

When asked which country or international body they trust most to act in the best interests of Pakistan and the world, China was, interestingly, overwhelmingly the most trusted (49%) – over twice that of even the United Nations.

Why This Matters

Pakistan’s profile in this data is the most extreme and internally consistent of any country surveyed. The combination of overwhelming blame on Israel, near-universal sympathy for Iran, the highest economic pain, the strongest China alignment, and the most acute fears of global escalation paints a picture of a population that feels deeply, personally affected by a conflict in which it has no formal role.

For policymakers and international organizations, the implications are clear. Pakistan’s public opinion is not a passive backdrop – it is a force that shapes the government’s room to maneuver on foreign policy, alliance decisions, and economic stabilization. Any diplomatic strategy that ignores this sentiment risks misreading one of the most consequential populations in the conflict’s broader orbit.

Methodology

This report draws on data from GeoPoll’s multi-country online survey conducted in the first week of March 2026, during a period of active military escalation in the Middle East following the launch of U.S.-Israeli Operation Epic Fury on 28 February 2026.

The survey collected 3,754 responses across six countries: Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa. The Pakistan subsample comprises 626 respondents. Respondents were recruited through GeoPoll’s online panel and surveyed via a structured questionnaire covering conflict awareness, attribution, sympathy, escalation concerns, economic impact, views on global powers, institutional trust, media consumption, personal security, and preferred government responses. GeoPoll administered the questionnaire in both English and Urdu in Pakistan.

All percentage figures are rounded to the nearest whole number. Country-level breakdowns are unweighted.

Read the full 37-page report

This is a sub-report of GeoPoll’s report, “Caught in the Crossfire?“ A Six-Country Citizen Perceptions Study on the Iran–Israel–U.S. Conflict.

To read the full 37-page report, including detailed cross-country comparisons, verbatim citizen voices, and policy recommendations, visit: www.geopoll.com/blog/iran-israel-us-conflict-report

For enquiries about country-specific data, custom analysis, or partnership opportunities, contact [email protected]