On microfinance, which has seen renewed interest amid regulatory changes, Maheshwari said the recent state-level legislation signals both the sector’s importance and its structural challenges. “This is a very interesting thing brought in by a state. It shows how important microfinance is in the states,” he said, adding that the industry plays a key role in the MSME and lower-ticket economy. However, he flagged the issue of over-lending: “There are huge issues as far as multiple loans are concerned… people are giving more loans to the same borrowers and they in turn default.” The move to restrict borrowers to two loans, he believes, could help stabilise the system. “Some issues are getting sorted and this will help the industry overall,” he noted, describing the legislation as beneficial “for both sides.”
On banking, Maheshwari maintained that PSU lenders continue to hold an edge over private peers. “PSUs continue to outshine… valuations are much cheaper,” he said, pointing out that growth and asset quality are now comparable. He also linked volatility to foreign investor flows. “FIIs have been major holders in IT and banks, and that is where we are seeing the selling.”
Metals, in his view, demand agility rather than long-term conviction. “One year is too long a call on the metal sector… you have to play quarter by quarter,” he said, citing global volatility. While non-ferrous stocks have largely played out, “for the moment ferrous looks interesting,” he added, suggesting steel may offer better near-term opportunities.
On commercial vehicles, Maheshwari acknowledged early signs of recovery but urged caution on capex trends. “CV seems to be in a good spot,” he said, though private capex remains subdued. Replacement demand, however, could drive the cycle. “The five-year fleet renewal is coming up… replacement demand is going to be very strong,” he said, adding, “I am positive on the CV cycle.”
In the energy space, he sees a tactical opportunity in upstream PSUs amid geopolitical risks. “Upstream guys like Oil India, ONGC could be a good trading play,” he said, while suggesting a cautious stance on OMCs “for the moment.”Maheshwari was blunt on so-called value retailers. “I do not know how you call them value because they are hugely overvalued,” he remarked, citing high multiples and moderating growth. “Anywhere the PEG is two or three, so nothing catches my focus in the sector.”On power, he differentiated between product and service plays. “Product-wise, there is nothing cheap out there… people are discounting well ahead two-three years of growth,” he said. However, “T&D players are reasonably priced,” making services a relatively better bet. He also highlighted data centres as a structural demand driver with “strong visibility for the next three to five years.”
Autos remain a relative outperformer. “One of the bright spots in the overall gloomy market… autos would be the top bet at the moment,” he said.
On defence, however, he advised restraint. “The outlook is very good but it is already getting priced in… prices are marked to perfection,” he cautioned, adding that while existing investors can hold, “I do not see any reason to buy it fresh.”
