Crypto traders are increasing their bets on former Trump advisor Judy Shelton even as the Fed chair race continues to tighten. This comes amid a drop in Kevin Hassett’s odds, although he remains the favorite to replace Jerome Powell.
Judy Shelton’s Fed Chair Odds Rise as Market Awaits Trump’s Decision
Kalshi data shows that crypto traders are increasing their bets on Judy Shelton replacing Powell, with her odds rising to 5%. Meanwhile, Hassett has seen his odds drop to 38%, from a high of around 85% at the start of December last year.
Shelton’s odds of becoming the next Fed chair have also risen on the prediction platform Polymarket. There is currently a 3% chance that she gets the nod from Trump, according to Polymarket data.
The Fed chair race continues to tighten ahead of Trump’s nomination. Kevin Warsh and Chris Waller are also in contention, with odds of 36% and 13%, respectively. Interestingly, Shelton and BlackRock’s Rick Rieder both have a 5% chance of becoming the next chair, despite the shortlist containing only Rieder, Hassett, Warsh, and Waller.
CoinGape reported that Trump was going to interview Rieder in the last week of 2025, having already interviewed Warsh and Waller beforehand. Neither Trump nor the White House has provided an update on the interview. The U.S. president has also been notably silent on his potential pick in recent weeks, after he said he was leaning towards Hassett or Warsh for the Fed chair role.
However, Trump recently suggested that he would love to fire Powell, while also alluding to the renovation costs that put the Fed chair in the spotlight last year. He also mentioned that he might file a lawsuit against Powell for “gross incompetence.”
Trump To Announce His Nomination This Month
Crypto traders are still betting that Trump will announce his nomination for Fed chair this month. Kalshi data show an 82% chance that the U.S. president will announce Powell’s successor by February 1.
Polymarket data shows a 79% chance that Trump announces the next Fed chair by January 31. It is worth mentioning that this announcement could potentially come before the January FOMC meeting on the 28th.
Besides Trump’s nomination, the market is also watching Powell’s next move on whether he will remain on the Fed board or resign once his term as chair ends in May. This is significant as Powell’s resignation could give Trump a majority on the Fed board, which could help boost his push for far lower interest rates.
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