Geopolitical Change: Investors Should Focus on the Long Term

In our interconnected world, geopolitical events — ranging from trade disputes and regulatory shifts to conflicts and pandemics — capture headlines and influence market sentiments. As investment professionals, it’s crucial for us to understand these dynamics without losing sight of long-term client objectives.

At CFA Institute, our role is clear: we educate financial professionals. We do not take positions on geopolitical matters. Rather, we focus our work through the lens of investment outcomes and improving the financial system for the benefit of all market participants.

Since our founding in 1947 — the post–World War II era — every decade has been marked by significant strife and economic disruption. The Cold War defined geopolitics for decades. Borders shifted in Eastern Europe and were drawn and redrawn over time. The 1960s brought massive cultural and governmental changes to many parts of the world. The 1970s saw significant inflation, high interest rates, and oil-supply shocks.

I could go on, but the point should be clear: every epoch poses unique sets of challenges for investors. As financial professionals, we must serve client needs and remain focused on our mandate to improve investor outcomes. We must not allow news alerts or our own personal views on the issues of the day to distract us from the work of fundamental analysis and our fiduciary duty to clients. And at CFA Institute, we must focus on our mission: “To lead the investment profession globally by promoting the highest standards of ethics, education, and professional excellence for the ultimate benefit of society.”

Recognizing the significance of geopolitical factors, the CFA® Program curriculum contains comprehensive content on this subject. In Level I, candidates explore the “Introduction to Geopolitics,” which examines how geography influences politics and international relations, and how these, in turn, impact global economies and investment markets. This content is also available to our members as a refresher reading.

We don’t “teach” positions on these matters. We focus on the core: what does it mean for investors? This inclusion of geopolitics in the curriculum underscores our commitment to equipping members and candidates with the tools to assess and navigate geopolitical risks effectively.

Taking a long-term perspective stands the test of time. Historical data indicates that while geopolitical events can cause short-term market disruptions, the long-term impact on returns is often limited. Markets tend to absorb ebbs and flows over time, with prices ultimately realigning when underlying economic fundamentals normalize.

The challenge, therefore, is identifying secular trends that may indeed have enduring consequences: what is episodic vs. a realignment of the status quo.

Overall, maintaining a long-term perspective remains essential in the face of geopolitical uncertainties. Short-term market movements, driven by immediate reactions to geopolitical events, can tempt investors to make hasty decisions that may not align with their strategic objectives. By focusing on long-term goals and adhering to a well-crafted investment plan, investors can better navigate the volatility associated with geopolitical events.

As we all know, diversification remains a cornerstone of investing; it is essential to mitigating the impact of geopolitical risks. By allocating investments across various asset classes, sectors, and geographical regions, advisors can help cushion clients’ portfolios against disruptions and strive for more stable long-term returns.

Geopolitical events will remain an inherent aspect of the global investment environment. Our role as investment professionals is to navigate these complexities with a balanced and informed perspective, always aligning the advice we provide with the long-term goals of our clients and stakeholders. And our role here at CFA Institute for the past 75-plus years has been to educate. When we do advocate, it is for a distinct purpose: to seek improvements in the investment ecosystem.

Our Research and Policy Center contains a library of resources on geopolitics. Our Future State of the Investment Industry report includes a whole section on “Diverging Worlds,” exploring deglobalization, geopolitical tensions, demographic disruption, and more.

By leveraging the insights from the CFA Program curriculum, our deep body of research, and adhering to principles of diversification and disciplined investing, we can effectively manage geopolitical risks and continue to uphold the highest standards of professionalism in our industry — all without getting dragged into the raging debates of the day.