The coalition’s win — 202 seats out of 243, backed by a 46.6% vote share — has surprised even the most optimistic exit polls. What stands out, according to Motilal Oswal, is that this mandate comes despite a rising opposition challenger, a new political entrant and the drag of four-term anti-incumbency. The firm believes the scale of the verdict signals a shift in Bihar’s political landscape toward a more development-driven and governance-focused discourse.
For the markets, the brokerage notes that this result reinforces the strength of the ruling coalition at a time when investors had been watchful of political cohesion after the 2024 general elections. Those concerns, Motilal Oswal points out, were already easing after strong NDA performances in Maharashtra, Haryana and Delhi. Now, the emphatic Bihar verdict adds another layer of stability, and it arrives just as several supporting macro and policy factors converge.
Motilal Oswal highlights a series of concurrent tailwinds: ongoing reforms and growth-oriented measures from the RBI and government, an improving earnings backdrop, a policy push to stimulate demand, and a period of more than a year in which Indian equities have underperformed global peers. Nifty has slipped 1% since September 2024, against a 20% rise in MSCI EM, alongside a sharp FII outflow of $27.7 billion. Against this setting, the brokerage believes the Bihar result forms part of a broader mix that could support a more sustained market uptrend.
While acknowledging that the socio-economic impact of the mandate will unfold over time, Motilal Oswal says the immediate takeaway for investors is the continuity of policy direction and the greater operational flexibility for the Centre and the state, a combination it describes as the “double-engine” framework. The short-term market reaction, it adds, will eventually give way to the next set of trackers: the durability of the GST 2.0-led consumption boost, upcoming RBI actions, macro readings and, above all, the trajectory of corporate earnings.
On earnings, Motilal Oswal notes that the just-concluded 2QFY26 season delivered an encouraging improvement. Across its coverage universe, profit after tax was 3% above estimates and sales 2% higher. The beats were broad-based, with largecaps exceeding expectations by 2% and midcaps by 8%, though smallcaps lagged with an 8% miss. The brokerage indicates that the pickup in positive surprises may be an early sign of more stable earnings momentum, supported by an improving demand environment driven by GST 2.0 rate cuts, lower interest rates and tax savings for middle-income consumers.Motilal Oswal reiterates its constructive stance on Indian equities, backed by what it calls improving earnings momentum, reasonable valuations, with the Nifty trading at 21.1 times, only slightly above long-period averages, and a policy environment committed to doing “whatever it takes.” With supportive macro indicators and the possibility of FII selling tapering, the brokerage views the Bihar mandate as another factor reinforcing policy stability and market confidence.In Motilal Oswal’s assessment, the NDA’s Bihar landslide strengthens the government’s ability to maintain its current policy path and adapt it to evolving economic requirements, a continuity that markets, for now, are likely to welcome.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
