Is the fall in gold hinting at weakness? Here’s why the recent slide may not mean what you think

Gold prices in India have eased from recent highs, but the decline is being viewed as a technical correction rather than a sign of weakening momentum. After climbing steadily over the past few months, MCX gold slipped toward the crucial Rs 1,21,800 support zone, prompting questions on whether the broader rally was losing steam.

However, analysts emphasise that the pullback is occurring within an established uptrend, with key structural levels still intact for the Indian market.

The recent movement in gold is being characterised as a retest of previously supportive zones, rather than a downturn driven by fundamental factors. Domestic and global charts continue to trade within a broader rising pattern, indicating that the larger trend remains upward.

Analysts note that even though interim dips appear sharp, the underlying setup for Indian gold prices remains constructive as long as major supports hold.

Sharing his outlook, Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said the recent correction is unfolding within a strong trend. According to him, “gold prices witnessed a healthy correction this week across both COMEX and MCX, yet the broader trend remains firmly upward.”

He observed that MCX gold has been supported near the Rs 1,21,800 zone, adding that “the October–November movement on MCX also shows a distinct curved pattern, indicating a cyclical pullback within a strong uptrend rather than any structural weakness.”He further noted that this decline is part of a technical process, stating that “this decline is essentially a technical retest of the rising trendline, an area where buyers have consistently returned over the past three months.”He added that “both domestic and global charts continue to trade inside an Ascending Broadening Wedge, a pattern where prices keep rising while volatility widens, signalling that the larger trend remains bullish even though interim dips may appear sharp.”

For the Indian market, the analyst highlighted important levels to watch. On MCX, “Rs 1,21,800 remains the first major support,” below which the next cushions lie at “Rs 1,19,250–Rs 1,17,600.” Resistance for the coming sessions is placed at “Rs 1,24,000–Rs 1,24,500.”

As long as gold holds above its immediate supports, Ponmudi R said the bullish framework stays intact. If stability emerges around the current zone, he added that gold can rebound toward Rs 1,25,500, Rs 1,27,200, and Rs 1,28,800 on MCX.

A breakout above these levels could potentially mark the next stage of the rally, with the report noting that this may push Indian prices toward “Rs 1,30,000+ in India, confirming a fresh momentum phase.”

On the downside, he cautioned that if MCX gold slips below its key support, “the market could enter a short-term cooling phase,” with the next supports resting at “Rs 1,20,800–Rs 1,19,500 domestically.” However, these still lie within the broader technical structure unless a further breakdown occurs.

Despite the recent dip, the medium-term tone remains supportive. Ponmudi R stated that “the medium-term outlook for gold remains positive,” citing several factors such as global currency trends, central bank accumulation, geopolitical tensions, and inflation expectations.

He concluded that “these factors reinforce the view that gold remains in a constructive phase, maintaining a bullish bias as long as key support levels hold firm.”

Also read: Gold plunges Rs 5,000/10 gram, silver tanks Rs 8,700/kg. 3 reasons for yellow metal’s sharpest intraday slide

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)