Here’s when government data may come back

Economic data releases that have lagged during the government shutdown likely will take some time to get rolling again once Congress is back in business.

The reopening could happen as soon as the end of this week once final votes take place and President Donald Trump signs a stop-gap spending bill into law.

From there, though, it will take the various agencies, primarily in the departments of Labor and Commerce, to get up and rolling again as it regards data collection and releases. That means likely having to play catch-up for key reports like nonfarm payrolls, the consumer price index, retail sales, spending and income, and a variety of other metrics.

“The shutdown of the federal government has delayed nearly all federal economic data releases for September and October,” Goldman Sachs economists Elsie Peng and Ronnie Walker said in a client note. “While the shutdown appears to be nearing its end, it will take time for the statistical agencies to work through the backlog of releases.”

Assuming the government reopens before the end of the week, Goldman figures the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics will put out an updated schedule of releases in the early part of next week.

The BLS is in charge of the payrolls report as well as the CPI and the producer price index, both of which were scheduled for release this week. Other reports from the bureau include import and export prices, the employment cost index, and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

Goldman’s economists expect the October jobs report to be released soon after the reopening, possibly next Tuesday or Wednesday. “But apart from that, we expect other major data releases to be delayed,” they said.

That means the November payrolls and inflation reports could be delayed by “at least a week,” Goldman said.

For Commerce, among the more relevant reports are personal spending and income, which also includes the Federal Reserve’s key inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index. Outside of that, there’s retail sales, durable goods and the quarterly gross domestic product reading.

When the data freeze ends, the reports are likely to show more of the same as far as the economy goes — a slowing labor market, inflation still holding above the Fed’s comfort level and broader growth positive but also not gangbusters.

Fed officials have noted the inconvenience of not having regular data reports. But Chair Jerome Powell said recently that alternative data shows the central bank really hasn’t missed much in terms of the macro picture.

“Although some important federal government data have been delayed due to the shutdown, the public- and private-sector data that have remained available suggest that the outlook for employment and inflation has not changed much since our meeting in September,” Powell said at an Oct. 29 news conference. “Conditions in the labor market appear to be gradually cooling, and inflation remains somewhat elevated.”

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting the October nonfarm payrolls report to show a loss of 60,000 jobs. While Goldman puts the decline at 50,000, the general tenor of data for the month points to a slowdown.

Powell said Fed estimates put the key inflation rate at 2.8% for September, which is still considerably above the central bank’s 2% target but expected to decelerate gradually through 2026. The official PCE report is scheduled to drop Nov. 26, and it is unknown whether that will be the case.

As for the broader economy, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker of incoming data puts third-quarter growth at a 4% rate. Goldman projects fourth-quarter growth of 1.3%, an upward revision of 0.3 percentage point from the prior forecast, putting the full year on pace for a 2% annualized gain.