The stock, still up 21% over the past week and 45% in 2025, has faced sharp profit booking after a split-driven liquidity surge. Adani Power turned ex-split this week, a move aimed at making its shares more affordable to retail investors, and jumped 20% on Monday before cooling off.
“Adani Power has delivered a sharp move post its stock split, rising nearly 30% in a week and over 55% year-to-date, but the near-term setup looks stretched,” said Harshal Dasani, Business Head at INVasset PMS. Dasani highlighted the RSI near 87 as “deep overbought territory,” adding that while momentum remains bullish, “volatility will remain elevated.”
Technical indicators flash warnings
The stock is trading just below its all-time high and remains above all key moving averages, with the MACD still signaling bullish momentum, but the RSI at 76.6 points to overbought conditions. “Immediate resistance is placed around Rs 183–Rs 185,” Dasani said. “A close above this level could extend the rally towards Rs 190–Rs 195, with Rs 200 as a potential stretch target if momentum persists. On the downside, today’s low around Rs 160 acts as the first line of support, followed by a stronger base near Rs 150.”
Amruta Shinde, Research Analyst at Choice Broking, noted the stock has formed a rounding bottom pattern and is trading comfortably above its 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs. “Immediate support is seen at Rs 150, with a protective follow up around Rs 145, while a sustained move above the key resistance of Rs 180 could open further upside toward the Rs 200–220 range in the near term,” Shinde said.Both analysts cautioned that while the stock split has boosted retail participation, trading volumes, and sentiment, much of the optimism may already be priced in. “The stock’s 20% spike on the ex-split date and subsequent profit booking highlight how crowded positioning has become,” Dasani said. “With YTD gains already substantial, the risk-reward is more favorable for disciplined traders to buy on dips rather than chase fresh breakouts.”
Brokerages back long-term growth
Investor excitement has also been stoked by Morgan Stanley’s recent initiation of coverage on Adani Power with an ‘Overweight’ rating and a price target of Rs 818, projecting revenue of Rs 70,000 crore by FY28 and EBITDA nearly tripling by FY33. The brokerage cited the company’s plan to lift capacity from 18.15 GW today to 41.9 GW by FY32, lifting its coal-based market share from 8% to 15%.
Dasani cautioned, however, that execution risks are significant. “Building capacity at this scale requires synchronized environmental clearances, land acquisition, PPA tie-ups, fuel linkages, and supporting evacuation infrastructure,” he said, warning that regulatory delays, discom stress, or rising renewables could cap utilization levels.
Valuation premium leaves little room for error
The stock has re-rated sharply following Sebi’s dismissal of U.S. short-seller Hindenburg Research’s allegations of stock manipulation. “At current levels, valuations are richer than historic averages and trade at a premium to most peers,” Dasani said. “This premium reflects market confidence in Adani Power’s growth trajectory, but it also means the stock now embeds an execution premium that leaves little margin for error.”
Shinde said the near-term outlook remains constructive, supported by momentum and structural benefits from the split. Still, Dasani urged caution and said “For investors, accumulating on corrections closer to support levels around Rs 160–Rs 165 may offer a more balanced entry than chasing the stock near resistance while technicals remain overheated.”
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