Shares of Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: LW) were down 1% on Tuesday. The stock has dropped 18% year-to-date. The frozen potato products maker is scheduled to report its earnings results for the first quarter of 2026 on Tuesday, September 30, before market open. Here’s a look at what to expect from the earnings report:
Revenue
Analysts are projecting revenue of $1.62 billion for Lamb Weston in the first quarter of 2026, which indicates a decline of over 2% from the same period a year ago. In the fourth quarter of 2025, net sales increased 4% year-over-year to $1.67 billion.
Earnings
The consensus target for earnings per share in Q1 2026 is $0.53, which implies a 27% drop from the prior-year quarter. In Q4 2025, adjusted EPS rose 12% YoY to $0.87.
Points to note
Lamb Weston is seeing strong global demand for French fries. It also sees opportunities for innovation with growth in food delivery, expansion of QSR, or quick-service restaurants, formats, and the increasing usage of air fryers in at-home cooking. LW expects its category to continue to see strong demand in fiscal year 2026, with customers prioritizing French fries as a menu and at-home item.
Lamb Weston’s business gained momentum in the second half of fiscal year 2025 helped by customer wins and retention. In Q4, the company saw volume growth helped by contract wins across all channels and geographies. However softness in global restaurant traffic trends remained a headwind.
In Q4, restaurant traffic declined in the low-single-digits in the US and UK, which are LW’s biggest markets. QSR traffic was down 1% in the US, with traffic at QSR chains specializing in hamburgers was down 2%. Restaurant traffic was down 3% in the UK, and relatively flat in other key international markets during the fourth quarter.
The company does not expect to see an improvement in global restaurant traffic trends in FY2026 compared to FY2025 levels, but it anticipates customer momentum that started in the latter half of FY2025 to continue. LW expects the carryover pricing actions taken last year to have a negative impact on sales in the first half of FY2026. This may be reflected in the Q1 results.
Lamb Weston can be expected to benefit from the actions it is taking under its Focus to Win strategy. These include focusing investments on priority global markets and segments, strengthening customer partnerships, reducing costs and focusing on innovation.
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