Trump’s tariffs kicked in shortly after midnight, including 104 per cent on products from China, 20 per cent on the European Union, 24 per cent on Japan and 25 per cent on South Korea. Administration officials have tried to reassure voters, Republican lawmakers and CEOs that the rates are negotiable, but by their own admission that process could take months.
When a downturn appears on the horizon, investors typically crowd into US. Treasury notes as a safe haven, viewing the federal government as a source of stability. Not this time. Government bond prices are down, pushing up the interest rate on the 10-year US Treasury note to 4.45 per cent in a sign that the world is increasingly leery of Trump’s moves. “The market is highly nervous about foreign investors stepping away from the US Treasury debt, which is sending yields sharply higher,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US rates strategy at TD Securities. “Markets more broadly, not just the Treasury market, are looking for signs that a trade de-escalation is coming. Absent any de-escalation, it’s going to be difficult for markets to see stabilize.”
The Republican president was publicly defiant as the stock market recovered slightly, then sold off and then bounce back in morning trading. The S&P 500 stock index has fallen more than 18 per cent since February 18 as Trump’s tariff plans crystallised.
“THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!” he posted on Truth Social, his social media site. “BE COOL! Everything is going to work out well. The USA will be bigger and better than ever before!” Presidents often receive undue credit or blame for the state of the US economy as their time in the White House is subject to financial and geopolitical forces beyond their direct control. But by unilaterally imposing tariffs, Trump is exerting extraordinary influence over the flow of commerce, creating political risks that could prove difficult to avoid if his plans do not pan out. After early success in exerting control over American institutions, from law firms and universities to federal agencies and cultural organisations, he is now facing off with global markets that will not simply bend to his will.
JPMorgan Chase CEO and Chairman Jamie Dimon said there would “probably” be a recession, although he also deferred to his economists.
“I do think fixing these tariff issues and trade issues would be a good thing to do,” he said in an interview with Fox Business Network’s “Mornings with Maria.”
On CNBC, Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian said the administration was being less strategic than it was during Trump’s first term. His company had in January projected it would have its best financial year in history, only to scrap its expectations for 2025 due to the economic uncertainty.
“Trying to do it all at the same time has created chaos in terms of being able to make plans,” he said, noting that demand for air travel has weakened.
Economic forecasters say Trump’s return to the White House has had a series of negative and cascading impacts that could put the country into a downturn.
“Simultaneous shocks to consumer sentiment, corporate confidence, trade, financial markets as well as to prices, new orders and the labour market will tip the economy into recession in the current quarter,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at the consultancy RSM.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has previously said it could take months to strike deals with countries on tariff rates, and the administration has not been clear on whether the baseline 10 per cent tariffs imposed on most countries will stay in place. But in an appearance on “Mornings with Maria,” Bessent said the economy would “be back to firing on all cylinders” at a point in the “not too distant future.”
He said there has been an “overwhelming” response by “the countries who want to come and sit at the table rather than escalate.”
Bessent mentioned Japan, South Korea, and India. “I will note that they are all around China. We have Vietnam coming today,” he said.
Even as the administration has tried to calm the world, new risks are forming.
China imposed 84 per cent tariffs on goods from the United States. Canada now has auto tariffs to match the 25 per cent being charged by Washington. The EU approved new taxes on US goods after the 25 per cent steel and aluminum tariffs from Trump.
Trump is already calling for more tariffs, looking at copper, lumber and computer chips. In a Tuesday night speech, he said taxes on imported drugs would happen soon.
