© Reuters. Morgan Stanley sees Eli Lilly’s (LLY) Donanemab achieving higher rate of ARIA
By Sam Boughedda
Eli Lilly (NYSE:) is a catalyst-driven idea at Morgan Stanley, analysts said in a note Friday, based on Topline Ph3 data for the company’s Alzheimer’s drug Donanemab, which is expected in the second quarter.
“Eli Lilly plans to report topline 18-month donanemab Ph3 TRAILBLAZER-2 results in 2Q23. This will be the third Ph3 Alzheimer’s readout following positive Biogen/Eisai lecanemab CLARITY AD results and negative Roche gantenerumab GRADUATE I/II results,” explained analysts.
The analysts outlined six potential scenarios that could play out, including:
Donanemab achieves better efficacy and a similar/lower rate of ARIA.
Donanemab has better efficacy and a higher rate of ARIA.
Donanemab performs at a comparable efficacy and similar/lower rate of ARIA.
Donanemab achieves a comparable efficacy and a higher rate of ARIA.
Donanemab has lower efficacy, but the results are statistically significant.
or the Donanemab study fails.
Morgan Stanley’s base case is scenario four which would see Donanemab have a comparable efficacy and higher rate of ARIA.
Overall, analysts said the firm is focused on cognitive improvement and rates of symptomatic ARIA as key criteria to compare Dmab to lecanemab.