Why Aren’t We Seeing Mortgage Rate Relief Yet?

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In This Article

If you’ve been watching the markets and wondering why mortgage rates remain stubbornly high—despite whispers of economic softening—you’re not alone. It’s mid-April and many expected mortgage rate relief by now. After all, inflation has cooled, and there’s been talk of eventual interest rate cuts.

And yet here we are. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate continues to hover near 6.5% to 7%, remaining well above where many anticipated it would be by spring. It’s tempting to point to President Trump’s tariffs as the primary driver, but is that really the full story?

Even before yesterday’s Treasury sell-off, upward pressure on 10-year yields was already building. The events of April 9 simply accelerated a trend that was already underway.

It turns out that part of the answer may lie in the intricate—and risky—world of hedge fund trading, specifically a strategy known as the basis trade. While this might sound like something pulled from an episode of Billions, it has very real consequences for real estate investors like you.

Let’s break down what’s happening and how you can navigate the uncertainty.

The Scene: Hedge Funds, Leverage, and the Basis Trade

Imagine a hedge fund borrows billions through the repo market—a short-term lending market backed by securities—to buy U.S. Treasury bonds. Simultaneously, they sell Treasury futures to lock in a small price differential. The idea? Pocket the difference between the cash bond and the futures contract.

But here’s the catch: These trades are highly leveraged, often by a factor of 15 to 20. According to the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC), as cited in ZeroHedge’s April 8, 2025, article “Absolutely Spectacular Meltdown,” “20x appears to be a good approximation of leverage typically used in these trades.”

When markets are calm, this can generate modest gains. But when things shift? Losses are magnified. That’s what happened in early April, when the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, after dipping to a low of 3.89% on April 6, 2025, at 7:30 p.m., reversed course and spiked sharply higher, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED Series DGS10).

Act One: Bond Dump Sparks Rate Surge

In just two days, the 10-year Treasury yield surged from 3.89% to 4.38%—a 49-basis-point swing. This rapid rise in yields triggered significant losses on these basis trades. Since bond prices move inversely to yields, leveraged hedge funds were suddenly underwater. To meet margin calls, many began liquidating large positions in Treasuries, creating further selling pressure.

That’s where real estate investors start to feel the pain.

Mortgage rates are closely tied to the 10-year Treasury yield, typically with a spread of about 1.5 to 2 percentage points. With yields above 4.3%, mortgage rates remain elevated. Instead of dropping toward 5%—which many hoped would improve affordability and stimulate activity—we remain locked in at levels that continue to sideline potential buyers.

According to Altos Research’s April 4, 2025, Weekly Market Report, the national median list price sits at $449,000, up 5% year over year. But homes are lingering on the market longer—averaging 111 days, a 4% increase from last year. Elevated mortgage rates are a key reason buyers are hesitant to pull the trigger.

Act Two: Sentiment Slips and Price Cuts Rise

The market doesn’t like surprises—especially when headlines reference “Investors Fear Another Big Blowup of Basis Trade as Treasuries Lose Haven Status.” As hedge funds rush to unload Treasuries and trading liquidity dries up, buyer confidence in the housing market can take a hit.

Per the same Altos report, inventory has grown to 691,171 active listings, a 39% increase year over year. Pending sales are up 23% YoY, totaling 72,191.

But the real signal of hesitation? Price cuts. Roughly 35% of listings have seen reductions—17% more than this time last year.

Uncertainty breeds caution. Buyers see volatility in financial markets and take a wait-and-see approach. For you as an investor, this could mean longer holding times, fewer offers, and increased competition among sellers. It’s not a collapse—it’s a cooling-off period, with some investors considering strategy adjustments.

Will the Fed Step In?

This isn’t the first time a basis trade shakeout has disrupted the market. We saw similar episodes in 2019 and 2020, which prompted the Federal Reserve to intervene through emergency lending and market stabilization tools. The April 8 ZeroHedge article suggests the scale of the current situation—estimated at $1.8 trillion to $1.9 trillion in leveraged positions—could justify another round of support, possibly via the Standing Repo Facility or a variation of Operation Twist.

But until that happens, Treasury yields—and, by extension, mortgage rates—may remain elevated. For real estate investors, that means staying alert and data-driven.

What Can You Do as a Real Estate Investor?

In a market shaped by forces beyond the usual supply-and-demand dynamics, self-directed investors must stay informed and agile. Here are a few steps you can take.

Track key indicators daily

Keep an eye on the 10-year Treasury yield (FRED DGS10) and SOFR swap spreads (available via the New York Fed or trusted financial data providers). These offer real-time insights into rate movement and market liquidity.

Leverage real estate market data

Altos Research shows inventory is up, and price cuts are becoming more common. That could be an opportunity to find motivated sellers, negotiate better terms, and enter the market in a stronger position.

Explore tax-advantaged strategies like 1031 exchanges

If you’re navigating today’s market with appreciated property, you may consider a 1031 exchange to defer capital gains taxes and reallocate into income-producing real estate. Equity Trust Company, a leading self-directed IRA custodian, has resources to help you understand options for your broader investment goals. You can learn more at GetEquity1031.com or through trusted sources like BiggerPockets.

Final Thoughts

Mortgage rates haven’t come down because real-world hedge fund activity—particularly the unwinding of risky basis trades—is driving Treasury yields higher than economic conditions alone would suggest. What looked like a small drop to 3.89% on April 6 quickly reversed, due in large part to aggressive bond sales in a fragile market.

But as an investor, you’re not powerless. By staying informed, you can continue building your portfolio—even amid volatility.

Here’s to navigating wisely, investing intentionally, and staying ready for opportunity—no matter what Wall Street throws your way.

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