No Result
View All Result
SUBMIT YOUR ARTICLES
  • Login
Thursday, October 30, 2025
TheAdviserMagazine.com
  • Home
  • Financial Planning
    • Financial Planning
    • Personal Finance
  • Market Research
    • Business
    • Investing
    • Money
    • Economy
    • Markets
    • Stocks
    • Trading
  • 401k Plans
  • College
  • IRS & Taxes
  • Estate Plans
  • Social Security
  • Medicare
  • Legal
  • Home
  • Financial Planning
    • Financial Planning
    • Personal Finance
  • Market Research
    • Business
    • Investing
    • Money
    • Economy
    • Markets
    • Stocks
    • Trading
  • 401k Plans
  • College
  • IRS & Taxes
  • Estate Plans
  • Social Security
  • Medicare
  • Legal
No Result
View All Result
TheAdviserMagazine.com
No Result
View All Result
Home Market Research Markets

The Fed meets with uncertainty permeating the air. Here’s what to expect

by TheAdviserMagazine
6 months ago
in Markets
Reading Time: 4 mins read
A A
The Fed meets with uncertainty permeating the air. Here’s what to expect
Share on FacebookShare on TwitterShare on LInkedIn


US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the Economic Club of Chicago in Chicago, Illinois, on April 16, 2025.

Kamil Krzaczynski | Afp | Getty Images

The Federal Reserve heads into its closely watched policy decision Wednesday with a strong incentive to do absolutely nothing.

Faced with unresolved questions over President Donald Trump’s tariffs and an economy that is signaling both significant strengths and weaknesses, central bank policymakers can do little for now except sit and wait as events unfold.

“It’s going to be awkward at this meeting. The Fed doesn’t have a forecast to convey anything about the next couple meetings,” said Vincent Reinhart, a former long-time Fed official and now chief economist at BNY Investments. “The Fed’s got to wait for two things: It’s to see that the policy actually goes into place … But then, when it’s demonstrated, it’s got to see how inflation expectations react. So that’s why the Fed’s got to delay, then go slow.”

Indeed, futures market pricing is implying almost no chance of an interest rate cut at this week’s meeting, and only about a 1-in-3 probability of a move at the June 17-18 session, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge.

Market expectations have shifted over the past week in response both to mixed economic signals as well as signs that President Donald Trump is getting at least a bit less aggressive in his tariff approach. The White House has signaled that several trade deals are nearing completion, though none have been announced yet.

Reinhart said his firm has two cuts plugged in for this year, a bit tighter of a path than the market expectations for three reductions starting in July. A week ago, markets were betting on as many as four cuts, starting in June.

Direction from Powell

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be left at his post-meeting news conference to explain the thinking from him and his colleagues on where they see policy heading.

“The other unsatisfying part is they don’t know what they’re going to do in June,” Reinhart said. “So he’s going to have to say everything’s on the table. He always says it, but this time, he’s going to have to mean it.”

Powell, though, is sure to face questioning about how policymakers see the recent barrage of data, which has painted a picture of economy loaded with pessimism from consumers and business executives that has yet to feed into hard numbers such as spending and employment.

While gross domestic product fell at a 0.3% annualized rate in the first quarter, it was largely the product of a surge in imports ahead of Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement. The April nonfarm payrolls report showed that hiring continued at a solid pace, with the economy adding a better-than-expected 177,000 jobs for the month.

At the same time, manufacturing and service sector surveys show deep concern about inflation and supply impacts from tariffs. Also, consumer optimism is at multi-year lows while inflation expectations are at multi-decade highs.

It all adds up to a tightrope for Powell and Co. to walk at least through the June meeting.

No ‘dot plot’ this time

“The Fed is going to project in their statement, in their press conference, patience. Wait to see more data,” said Tony Rodriguez, head of fixed income strategy at Nuveen. “Too much uncertainty to act right now, but prepare to act if they begin to see weakness in the employment market.”

Nuveen also expects just two cuts this year and two more next year as the Fed navigates slowing growth and tariff-fueled price increases.

“Our expectation is you’re going to see nothing at this meeting,” Rodriguez said. “They just need to see more hard data, which we don’t think will become really clear until call it June or July. I would think of the September meeting as being the first cut.”

The Fed at this meeting does not update its economic projections nor its “dot plot” of individual member expectations for interest rates. That will come in June. So the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee will be left to tweaks in the post-meeting statement and Powell’s news conference to drop any possible hints of its collective thinking.

“We think it will take a couple of months for enough hard data evidence to accumulate to make the case for a cut,” Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle said in a note. Goldman expects the Fed to cut in July, September and October in an effort to head off economic weakness, which the firm expects to take priority over inflation concerns.

One wild card in the equation: Trump, as he did during his first term, has been urging the Fed to cut rates as inflation edges closer to the central bank’s 2% objective.

However, Reinhart, the BNY economist, does not see the Fed bending to Trump’s will nor breaking ranks despite public statements from some members showing division on policy.

“The White House has done Jay Powell a favor in keeping his committee together. Because generally, when a family is criticized from from the outside, it’s less willing to criticize each other,” Reinhart said. “Do you criticize Jay Powell now and line yourself up the president? Probably not, if you worked your whole life in the Federal Reserve system.”



Source link

Tags: airExpectFedHeresMeetspermeatingUncertainty
ShareTweetShare
Previous Post

Trump Tariffs Threaten to Offset Trump Tax Cuts: Analysis

Next Post

Omeros gets FDA acceptance for narsoplimab BLA resubmission

Related Posts

edit post
Chart of the Week: The Fed’s AI Singularity Wake-Up Call

Chart of the Week: The Fed’s AI Singularity Wake-Up Call

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 30, 2025
0

It’s one thing when I talk about a coming AI-driven singularity. But when the Federal Reserve starts talking about it, you...

edit post
How Millions of Retirees Get Honest Answers to Medicare Questions — for Free

How Millions of Retirees Get Honest Answers to Medicare Questions — for Free

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 30, 2025
0

RossHelen / Shutterstock.comIt’s that time of year again: Medicare’s open enrollment period started Oct. 15 and runs through Dec. 7....

edit post
Best and Worst Housing Markets of 2026

Best and Worst Housing Markets of 2026

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 30, 2025
0

Dave:We are in a housing correction, at least on a national level, but everyone knows real estate and real estate...

edit post
China says it’s willing to work with U.S. on TikTok

China says it’s willing to work with U.S. on TikTok

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 30, 2025
0

Beijing will work with Washington to "properly resolve" issues around the divestiture of the U.S. operations of TikTok, China's Commerce...

edit post
Reducing This Type of Cholesterol May Lower Dementia Risk by 80%. Have You Even Heard of It?

Reducing This Type of Cholesterol May Lower Dementia Risk by 80%. Have You Even Heard of It?

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 29, 2025
0

PeopleImages / Shutterstock.comKeeping cholesterol levels low may protect your brain as well as your heart, according to a recent study....

edit post
Here are the five key takeaways from the Fed meeting and Powell news conference

Here are the five key takeaways from the Fed meeting and Powell news conference

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 29, 2025
0

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference after the Fed cut interest rates by quarter of a...

Next Post
edit post
Omeros gets FDA acceptance for narsoplimab BLA resubmission

Omeros gets FDA acceptance for narsoplimab BLA resubmission

edit post
Small investors rushed into Berkshire shares during dip even after their hero Buffett set exit

Small investors rushed into Berkshire shares during dip even after their hero Buffett set exit

  • Trending
  • Comments
  • Latest
edit post
77-year-old popular furniture retailer closes store locations

77-year-old popular furniture retailer closes store locations

October 18, 2025
edit post
Pennsylvania House of Representatives Rejects Update to Child Custody Laws

Pennsylvania House of Representatives Rejects Update to Child Custody Laws

October 7, 2025
edit post
What to Do When a Loved One Dies in North Carolina

What to Do When a Loved One Dies in North Carolina

October 8, 2025
edit post
Another Violent Outburst – Democrats Inciting Civil Unrest

Another Violent Outburst – Democrats Inciting Civil Unrest

October 24, 2025
edit post
Probate vs. Non-Probate Assets: What’s the Difference?

Probate vs. Non-Probate Assets: What’s the Difference?

October 17, 2025
edit post
California Attorney Pleads Guilty For Role In 2M Ponzi Scheme

California Attorney Pleads Guilty For Role In $912M Ponzi Scheme

October 15, 2025
edit post
The Factor Mirage: How Quant Models Go Wrong

The Factor Mirage: How Quant Models Go Wrong

0
edit post
Trump cuts fentanyl tariffs on China to 10% as Beijing delays rare earth curbs

Trump cuts fentanyl tariffs on China to 10% as Beijing delays rare earth curbs

0
edit post
Flutterwave, Polygon Team Up on Africa Stablecoin Payments

Flutterwave, Polygon Team Up on Africa Stablecoin Payments

0
edit post
Russian Oil Tanker Turns Back Under U.S. Sanctions Threat

Russian Oil Tanker Turns Back Under U.S. Sanctions Threat

0
edit post
Young Canadians sue CPP Investments over climate risks

Young Canadians sue CPP Investments over climate risks

0
edit post
Johnson & Johnson: Defensiver Basiswert mit Innovationshebel korrigiert zum EMA-50!

Johnson & Johnson: Defensiver Basiswert mit Innovationshebel korrigiert zum EMA-50!

0
edit post
Trump cuts fentanyl tariffs on China to 10% as Beijing delays rare earth curbs

Trump cuts fentanyl tariffs on China to 10% as Beijing delays rare earth curbs

October 30, 2025
edit post
Flutterwave, Polygon Team Up on Africa Stablecoin Payments

Flutterwave, Polygon Team Up on Africa Stablecoin Payments

October 30, 2025
edit post
How advisors are using AI tools for prospecting and growth

How advisors are using AI tools for prospecting and growth

October 30, 2025
edit post
Chart of the Week: The Fed’s AI Singularity Wake-Up Call

Chart of the Week: The Fed’s AI Singularity Wake-Up Call

October 30, 2025
edit post
Johnson & Johnson: Defensiver Basiswert mit Innovationshebel korrigiert zum EMA-50!

Johnson & Johnson: Defensiver Basiswert mit Innovationshebel korrigiert zum EMA-50!

October 30, 2025
edit post
AI capex boosts from tech giants should benefit Credo, Micron, others: BNP Baripas

AI capex boosts from tech giants should benefit Credo, Micron, others: BNP Baripas

October 30, 2025
The Adviser Magazine

The first and only national digital and print magazine that connects individuals, families, and businesses to Fee-Only financial advisers, accountants, attorneys and college guidance counselors.

CATEGORIES

  • 401k Plans
  • Business
  • College
  • Cryptocurrency
  • Economy
  • Estate Plans
  • Financial Planning
  • Investing
  • IRS & Taxes
  • Legal
  • Market Analysis
  • Markets
  • Medicare
  • Money
  • Personal Finance
  • Social Security
  • Startups
  • Stock Market
  • Trading

LATEST UPDATES

  • Trump cuts fentanyl tariffs on China to 10% as Beijing delays rare earth curbs
  • Flutterwave, Polygon Team Up on Africa Stablecoin Payments
  • How advisors are using AI tools for prospecting and growth
  • Our Great Privacy Policy
  • Terms of Use, Legal Notices & Disclosures
  • Contact us
  • About Us

© Copyright 2024 All Rights Reserved
See articles for original source and related links to external sites.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Financial Planning
    • Financial Planning
    • Personal Finance
  • Market Research
    • Business
    • Investing
    • Money
    • Economy
    • Markets
    • Stocks
    • Trading
  • 401k Plans
  • College
  • IRS & Taxes
  • Estate Plans
  • Social Security
  • Medicare
  • Legal

© Copyright 2024 All Rights Reserved
See articles for original source and related links to external sites.