No Result
View All Result
SUBMIT YOUR ARTICLES
  • Login
Saturday, October 25, 2025
TheAdviserMagazine.com
  • Home
  • Financial Planning
    • Financial Planning
    • Personal Finance
  • Market Research
    • Business
    • Investing
    • Money
    • Economy
    • Markets
    • Stocks
    • Trading
  • 401k Plans
  • College
  • IRS & Taxes
  • Estate Plans
  • Social Security
  • Medicare
  • Legal
  • Home
  • Financial Planning
    • Financial Planning
    • Personal Finance
  • Market Research
    • Business
    • Investing
    • Money
    • Economy
    • Markets
    • Stocks
    • Trading
  • 401k Plans
  • College
  • IRS & Taxes
  • Estate Plans
  • Social Security
  • Medicare
  • Legal
No Result
View All Result
TheAdviserMagazine.com
No Result
View All Result
Home Market Research Markets

Tariffs may raise much less than White House projects, economists say

by TheAdviserMagazine
7 months ago
in Markets
Reading Time: 5 mins read
A A
Tariffs may raise much less than White House projects, economists say
Share on FacebookShare on TwitterShare on LInkedIn


President Donald Trump speaks before signing executive orders in the Oval Office on March 6, 2025.

Alex Wong | Getty Images

President Donald Trump says that tariffs will make the U.S. “rich.” But those riches will likely be far less than the White House expects, economists said.

The ultimate sum could have big ramifications for the U.S. economy, the nation’s debt and legislative negotiations over a tax-cut package, economists said.

White House trade adviser Peter Navarro on Sunday estimated tariffs would raise about $600 billion a year and $6 trillion over a decade. Auto tariffs would add another $100 billion a year, he said on “Fox News Sunday.”

Navarro made the projection as the U.S. plans to announce more tariffs against U.S. trading partners on Wednesday.

Economists expect the Trump administration’s tariff policy would generate a much lower amount of revenue than Navarro claims. Some project the total revenue would be less than half.

Roughly $600 billion to $700 billion a year “is not even in the realm of possibility,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s. “If you get to $100 billion to $200 billion, you’ll be pretty lucky.”

The White House declined to respond to a request for comment from CNBC about tariff revenue.

The ‘mental math’ behind tariff revenue

There are big question marks over the scope of the tariffs, including details like amount, duration, and products and countries affected — all of which have a significant bearing on the revenue total.

The White House is considering a 20% tariff on most imports, The Washington Post reported on Tuesday. President Trump floated this idea on the campaign trail. The Trump administration may ultimately opt for a different policy, like country-by-country tariffs based on each nation’s respective trade and non-trade barriers.

But a 20% tariff rate seems to align with Navarro’s revenue projections, economists said.

The U.S. imported about $3.3 trillion of goods in 2024. Applying a 20% tariff rate to all these imports would yield about $660 billion of annual revenue.

“That is almost certainly the mental math Peter Navarro is doing — and that mental math skips some crucial steps,” said Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Yale Budget Lab and former chief economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisers during the Biden administration.

Trade advisor to U.S. President Donald Trump Peter Navarro speaks to press outside of the White House on March 12, 2025 in Washington, DC. 

Kayla Bartkowski | Getty Images

That’s because an accurate revenue estimate must account for the many economic impacts of tariffs in the U.S. and around the world, economists said. Those effects combine to reduce revenue, they said.

A 20% broad tariff would raise about $250 billion a year (or $2.5 trillion over a decade) when taking those effects into account, according to Tedeschi, citing a Yale Budget Lab analysis published Monday.  

There are ways to raise larger sums — but they would involve higher tariff rates, economists said. For example, a 50% across-the-board tariff would raise about $780 billion per year, according to economists at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Even that is an optimistic assessment: It doesn’t account for lower U.S. economic growth due to retaliation or the negative growth effects from the tariffs themselves, they wrote.

Why revenue would be lower than expected

Tariffs generally raise prices for consumers. A 20% broad tariff would cost the average consumer $3,400 to $4,200 a year, according to the Yale Budget Lab.

Consumers would naturally buy fewer imported goods if they cost more, economists said. Lower demand means fewer imports and less tariff revenue from those imports, they said.

Tariffs are also expected to trigger “reduced economic activity,” said Robert McClelland, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.

More from Personal Finance:Economists say ‘value-added taxes’ aren’t a trade barrierTariffs are ‘lose-lose’ for U.S. jobs and industryWhy uncertainty makes the stock market go haywire

For example, U.S. companies that don’t pass tariff costs on to consumers via higher prices would likely see profits suffer (and their income taxes fall), economists said. Consumers might pull back on spending, further denting company profits and tax revenues, economists said. Companies that take a financial hit might lay off workers, they said.

Foreign nations are also expected to retaliate with their own tariffs on U.S. products, which would hurt companies that export products abroad. Other nations may experience an economic downturn, further reducing demand for U.S. products.

“If you get a 20% tariff rate, you’re going to get a rip-roaring recession, and that will undermine your fiscal situation,” Zandi said.

There’s also likely to be a certain level of non-compliance with tariff policy, and carve-outs for certain countries, industries or products, economists said. For instance, when the White House levied tariffs on China in February, it indefinitely exempted “de minimis” imports valued at $800 or less.

The Trump administration might also funnel some tariff revenue to paying certain parties aggrieved by a trade war, economists said.

President Trump did that in his first term: The government sent $61 billion in “relief” payments to American farmers who faced retaliatory tariffs, which was nearly all (92%) of the tariff revenue on Chinese goods from 2018 to 2020, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.

The tariffs will also likely have a short life span, diluting their potential revenue impact, economists said. They’re being issued by executive order and could be undone easily, whether by President Trump or a future president, they said.

“There’s zero probability these tariffs will last for 10 years,” Zandi said. “If they last until next year I’d be very surprised.”

Why this matters

The Trump administration has signaled that tariffs “will be one of the top-tier ways they’ll try to offset the cost” of passing a package of tax cuts, Tedeschi said.

Extending a 2017 tax cut law signed by President Trump would cost $4.5 trillion over a decade, according to the Tax Foundation. Trump has also called for other tax breaks like no taxes on tips, overtime pay or Social Security benefits, and a tax deduction for auto loan interest for American made cars.

If tariffs don’t cover the full cost of such a package, then Republican lawmakers would have to find cuts elsewhere or increase the nation’s debt, economists said.



Source link

Tags: economistsHouseProjectsraiseTariffswhite
ShareTweetShare
Previous Post

13 Aldi Products That Shoppers Love the Most

Next Post

CaaStle board confirms financial distress, furloughing employees

Related Posts

edit post
Popular investing strategy losing appeal with stocks at record finding

Popular investing strategy losing appeal with stocks at record finding

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 25, 2025
0

Passive investing through exchange-traded funds may be losing its appeal.Tidal Financial Group Chief Revenue Officer Gavin Filmore finds many of...

edit post
Starboard aims to unlock the value of Fluor’s investment in nuclear tech company NuScale

Starboard aims to unlock the value of Fluor’s investment in nuclear tech company NuScale

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 25, 2025
0

Company: Fluor Corp (FLR)Business: Fluor is a holding company that provides engineering, procurement, construction, fabrication and modularization, and project management...

edit post
Meta Platforms to report Q3 earnings on October 29. Here’s what to expect

Meta Platforms to report Q3 earnings on October 29. Here’s what to expect

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 24, 2025
0

When Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ: META) reports its third-quarter results, investors will be looking for updates on the trajectory of...

edit post
2 of the Best Aldi Finds Available Right Now (While They Last)

2 of the Best Aldi Finds Available Right Now (While They Last)

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 24, 2025
0

Sharkshock / Shutterstock.comLoyal Aldi shoppers know it well — the legendary “Aisle of Shame.” The affectionate nickname is a nod...

edit post
Estee Lauder (EL) Earnings Preview: Sales and earnings anticipated to see a pickup in Q1 2026

Estee Lauder (EL) Earnings Preview: Sales and earnings anticipated to see a pickup in Q1 2026

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 24, 2025
0

Shares of the Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (NYSE: EL) were up over 2% on Friday. The stock has gained 12%...

edit post
What Real Estate Investors Miss About Short-Term Capital

What Real Estate Investors Miss About Short-Term Capital

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 24, 2025
0

In This Article This article is presented by Connect Invest. Many real estate investors obsess over IRR and cap rates,...

Next Post
edit post
CaaStle board confirms financial distress, furloughing employees

CaaStle board confirms financial distress, furloughing employees

edit post
CPP payment dates in 2025, and more to know about the Canada Pension Plan

CPP payment dates in 2025, and more to know about the Canada Pension Plan

  • Trending
  • Comments
  • Latest
edit post
77-year-old popular furniture retailer closes store locations

77-year-old popular furniture retailer closes store locations

October 18, 2025
edit post
Pennsylvania House of Representatives Rejects Update to Child Custody Laws

Pennsylvania House of Representatives Rejects Update to Child Custody Laws

October 7, 2025
edit post
What to Do When a Loved One Dies in North Carolina

What to Do When a Loved One Dies in North Carolina

October 8, 2025
edit post
Another Violent Outburst – Democrats Inciting Civil Unrest

Another Violent Outburst – Democrats Inciting Civil Unrest

October 24, 2025
edit post
Probate vs. Non-Probate Assets: What’s the Difference?

Probate vs. Non-Probate Assets: What’s the Difference?

October 17, 2025
edit post
California Attorney Pleads Guilty For Role In 2M Ponzi Scheme

California Attorney Pleads Guilty For Role In $912M Ponzi Scheme

October 15, 2025
edit post
Trump adds 10% tariff on Canada due to TV ad, but IEEPA doesn’t allow its use against ‘information’

Trump adds 10% tariff on Canada due to TV ad, but IEEPA doesn’t allow its use against ‘information’

0
edit post
Are You an Average Retiree? Find Out if You Are Richer, Poorer or Right on The Money Compared to the Typical American

Are You an Average Retiree? Find Out if You Are Richer, Poorer or Right on The Money Compared to the Typical American

0
edit post
One more regional airline files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

One more regional airline files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

0
edit post
Home Prices Could “Stall” for Years

Home Prices Could “Stall” for Years

0
edit post
How to Recognize Critical Race Theory

How to Recognize Critical Race Theory

0
edit post
US Representative reveals up to K Bitcoin exposure

US Representative reveals up to $30K Bitcoin exposure

0
edit post
Trump adds 10% tariff on Canada due to TV ad, but IEEPA doesn’t allow its use against ‘information’

Trump adds 10% tariff on Canada due to TV ad, but IEEPA doesn’t allow its use against ‘information’

October 25, 2025
edit post
One more regional airline files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

One more regional airline files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

October 25, 2025
edit post
Trump hits Canada with an extra 10% duty because anti-tariff ad didn’t come down immediately

Trump hits Canada with an extra 10% duty because anti-tariff ad didn’t come down immediately

October 25, 2025
edit post
Meet Heidi Hallmark: A Bookkeeper Helping Women Find Peace of Mind in Their Finances

Meet Heidi Hallmark: A Bookkeeper Helping Women Find Peace of Mind in Their Finances

October 25, 2025
edit post
Scale AI Veteran Bilal Abu-Ghazaleh Launches 1001 With  Million To Rebuild The Physical World Through Artificial Intelligence

Scale AI Veteran Bilal Abu-Ghazaleh Launches 1001 With $9 Million To Rebuild The Physical World Through Artificial Intelligence

October 25, 2025
edit post
Polymarket Confirms Token Airdrop, But US Launch Is Priority — Details

Polymarket Confirms Token Airdrop, But US Launch Is Priority — Details

October 25, 2025
The Adviser Magazine

The first and only national digital and print magazine that connects individuals, families, and businesses to Fee-Only financial advisers, accountants, attorneys and college guidance counselors.

CATEGORIES

  • 401k Plans
  • Business
  • College
  • Cryptocurrency
  • Economy
  • Estate Plans
  • Financial Planning
  • Investing
  • IRS & Taxes
  • Legal
  • Market Analysis
  • Markets
  • Medicare
  • Money
  • Personal Finance
  • Social Security
  • Startups
  • Stock Market
  • Trading

LATEST UPDATES

  • Trump adds 10% tariff on Canada due to TV ad, but IEEPA doesn’t allow its use against ‘information’
  • One more regional airline files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy
  • Trump hits Canada with an extra 10% duty because anti-tariff ad didn’t come down immediately
  • Our Great Privacy Policy
  • Terms of Use, Legal Notices & Disclosures
  • Contact us
  • About Us

© Copyright 2024 All Rights Reserved
See articles for original source and related links to external sites.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Financial Planning
    • Financial Planning
    • Personal Finance
  • Market Research
    • Business
    • Investing
    • Money
    • Economy
    • Markets
    • Stocks
    • Trading
  • 401k Plans
  • College
  • IRS & Taxes
  • Estate Plans
  • Social Security
  • Medicare
  • Legal

© Copyright 2024 All Rights Reserved
See articles for original source and related links to external sites.