Last week, I wrote about the Genesis Mission — the new national AI program designed to keep the United States in the lead as artificial intelligence accelerates toward superintelligence (ASI).
Naturally, I’m excited about what this means for our future. But there’s another piece to this ASI race that makes me a little less optimistic.
Because even if we unleash our national labs to build the best models, and even if the Genesis Mission delivers everything it promises…
None of this matters if we don’t have enough power.
And that brings me to this week’s chart.
As you can see, it shows China’s electricity consumption from 2000 to today. And the curve isn’t just steep.
It’s nearly vertical.
In practical terms, China added the equivalent of an entire European Union’s worth of electricity demand in just six years.
Now, you could just chalk this up as economic growth. After all, China has had to rapidly increase its infrastructure over the last two decades to support its manufacturing boom.
But I also see this as strategic positioning.
China knows that AI, automation and advanced manufacturing will push global electricity demand to levels the West isn’t ready for. And rather than wait for the world to adapt, it has spent decades building generation, transmission lines and large-scale industrial capacity at a pace we haven’t matched.
Meanwhile, the U.S. is straining to keep up with its own needs.
Data centers are expanding faster than utilities can approve new generation. Grid operators are warning about supply gaps. And in several regions, new industrial projects are being delayed because there simply isn’t enough power to support them.
As I’ve said for the past year, I believe electricity will be an even bigger bottleneck for AI than chips in the near future.
And China has a massive lead in electricity production.
Here’s My Take
The race to ASI is also a race to build the energy infrastructure that can support it.
And when you look at China’s power curve, you see a country that clearly understands this.
That doesn’t mean the United States can’t close the gap. Our grid might be older, but when we put our minds to it, our innovation cycle can be incredibly fast.
And with the Genesis Mission now underway, we are finally treating power as part of a national strategy.
But we need to remain aware that electricity will become a deciding factor in which country can scale AI the fastest. And China’s explosive electricity growth gives it a head start.
If the United States wants to lead the race to superintelligence, upgrading our grid will be just as important as building new AI models.
We have the resources to close this energy gap.
We’ll find out soon enough if we have the urgency.
Regards,
Ian KingChief Strategist, Banyan Hill Publishing
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