No Result
View All Result
SUBMIT YOUR ARTICLES
  • Login
Monday, October 27, 2025
TheAdviserMagazine.com
  • Home
  • Financial Planning
    • Financial Planning
    • Personal Finance
  • Market Research
    • Business
    • Investing
    • Money
    • Economy
    • Markets
    • Stocks
    • Trading
  • 401k Plans
  • College
  • IRS & Taxes
  • Estate Plans
  • Social Security
  • Medicare
  • Legal
  • Home
  • Financial Planning
    • Financial Planning
    • Personal Finance
  • Market Research
    • Business
    • Investing
    • Money
    • Economy
    • Markets
    • Stocks
    • Trading
  • 401k Plans
  • College
  • IRS & Taxes
  • Estate Plans
  • Social Security
  • Medicare
  • Legal
No Result
View All Result
TheAdviserMagazine.com
No Result
View All Result
Home Market Research Market Analysis

US Dollar: Stagflation Fears, Trade Uncertainty to Keep Bearish Momentum Intact

by TheAdviserMagazine
7 months ago
in Market Analysis
Reading Time: 5 mins read
A A
US Dollar: Stagflation Fears, Trade Uncertainty to Keep Bearish Momentum Intact
Share on FacebookShare on TwitterShare on LInkedIn


Tariff uncertainty and weak inflation data continue to weigh on the dollar’s short-term outlook.
DXY struggles to hold 100 level; technical signals suggest risk of further downward move.
Fed policy direction remains unclear amid stagflation concerns and conflicting economic signals.
Looking for actionable trade ideas to navigate the current market volatility? Subscribe here to unlock access to InvestingPro’s AI-selected stock winners.

The continues to be under pressure due to President Donald Trump’s protectionist trade policies, especially his aggressive rhetoric and frequently changing stance on tariffs. Trump’s announcement that there will be no exceptions to tariffs on electronic products creates uncertainty in global markets and continues to undermine investor confidence.

The dollar started the new week at 100 after dropping to 99 last week. But early trades showed another decline, and it moved back toward the 99 level.

This means the dollar is now at its lowest level in three years. The dollar’s losses are especially noticeable against the and the . The exchange rate also started testing the 1.14 level, showing that the dollar is losing its image as a safe investment.

Looking at macroeconomic data, the decline in both headline and core and data released in the US signaled a temporary weakening in inflationary pressures. This has increased expectations for an cut by . While the markets are pricing a 25 basis point rate cut in May at 20% probability, this rate rises to 80% in June.

Markets expect a total rate cut of 80 basis points in the US this year, which could keep the dollar under pressure.

However, the European Central Bank (ECB) is also expected to cut by 25 basis points at its meeting on Thursday. This may limit the euro’s gains against the dollar. The ECB is now focusing more on supporting growth than fighting inflation, showing a dovish approach. This could slow down the euro’s rise in the short term and help the dollar find some balance.

Trade War Undermines Dollar’s Safe-Haven Status

US President Trump’s mixed messages on tariffs—being tough one day and pulling back the next—are hurting investor trust in US economic policy. This loss of confidence is causing short-term market swings and even raising doubts about the dollar’s role as the world’s main reserve currency.

The recent tax exemption debate on electronic products is another sign of the ongoing uncertainty. President Trump said there would be no exemptions, which conflicted with earlier reports that some tech products might be spared. These contradictions make it hard for the market to understand or follow his policies.

At the same time, Trump’s unclear trade stance with China and his aggressive trade moves are putting pressure on the US economy’s growth outlook. If inflation rises while growth slows, it could lead to stagflation—a risky situation with both inflation and weak growth.

This makes it very hard to set the right course for monetary policy. The Fed needs to cut interest rates to support the economy, but it might also need to raise rates if inflation picks up. These opposite needs could leave monetary policy tools stretched thin.

Still, some members of the Federal Reserve are trying to calm markets, saying the bank has other tools beyond interest rates to manage the economy.

Falling Inflation Provides Temporary Relief

The decline in CPI and PPI data released last week led to further pressure on the dollar. The decline in headline and core inflation on an annual basis has eased the pressure on the Fed, at least for now. This led to the repricing of interest rate cut expectations and paved the way for the to fall below the 100 level. However, market professionals are not sure whether this decline is permanent. Because a “stagflation” scenario, in which growth will slow down due to the impact of trade wars and this slowdown may simultaneously increase inflation, is being increasingly pronounced.

This week, markets will focus on the US , Eurozone and ECB interest decision. In the Eurozone, headline inflation is expected to fall to 2.2% and remain stable at 2.4%. Over the weekend, US and European markets will be open for 4 days due to the Easter holiday, which may increase volatility.

Technical Outlook on DXY

From a technical perspective, the Dollar Index (DXY) dropped sharply after losing support in the 103–104 range earlier this month. It quickly fell to the key psychological level of 100, which may continue to act as an important short-term support.

On the daily chart, both the short-term moving averages and the Stochastic RSI are still showing bearish signals. The dollar’s recovery attempts at 100 are weakening, suggesting that if the index fails to hold above this level in the coming days, the downward move could continue toward the Fibonacci expansion zone between 94 and 97.

If Federal Reserve Chair Powell makes hawkish comments on interest rates this week, it could help support the dollar, triggering buying interest and possibly pushing the DXY back above 100. In such a scenario, we might see a move up to the 101.5–102 range. Additionally, any signals from the European Central Bank (ECB) could also influence short-term dollar movements.

However, the current environment still points to a downward trend for the dollar in the near term. The direction will largely depend on how Trump handles tariff issues, the progress of US-China trade talks, and the Fed’s communication.

Looking at the latest developments, pressure on the dollar is likely to continue in the short term. For a lasting recovery, a pause in the trade war and greater political stability in the US will be necessary.

****

Be sure to check out InvestingPro to stay in sync with the market trend and what it means for your trading. Whether you’re a novice investor or a seasoned trader, leveraging InvestingPro can unlock a world of investment opportunities while minimizing risks amid the challenging market backdrop.

Subscribe now and instantly unlock access to several market-beating features, including:

ProPicks AI: AI-selected stock winners with proven track record.
InvestingPro Fair Value: Instantly find out if a stock is underpriced or overvalued.
Advanced Stock Screener: Search for the best stocks based on hundreds of selected filters, and criteria.
Top Ideas: See what stocks billionaire investors such as Warren Buffett, Michael Burry, and George Soros are buying.ProPicks AI

Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk belongs to the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services.



Source link

Tags: bearishdollarfearsIntactmomentumStagflationtradeUncertainty
ShareTweetShare
Previous Post

Goldman sees glittering future for gold. Boosts year-end target to $3,700

Next Post

Navratnas of the market: 9 investing mantras from Devina Mehra’s new book

Related Posts

edit post
1 Stock to Buy, 1 Stock to Sell This Week: Meta Platforms, Starbucks

1 Stock to Buy, 1 Stock to Sell This Week: Meta Platforms, Starbucks

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 26, 2025
0

Fed policy decision, ‘Mag 7’ earnings, and Trump-Xi meeting will be in focus this week. Meta is expected to report...

edit post
Where We Go Next After NY Climate Week

Where We Go Next After NY Climate Week

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 24, 2025
0

The 2025 New York climate week spurred discussions. What stood out for us was that everyone’s takeaways were rooted in...

edit post
What I’ve Found So Far

What I’ve Found So Far

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 24, 2025
0

Since July, I’ve attended the Hubspot Inbound, Oracle AI World, and SupportLogic’s Enterprise AI for CX conferences. I’ve also been...

edit post
California’s TFAIA Act Revives Conversation On AI Regulations

California’s TFAIA Act Revives Conversation On AI Regulations

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 24, 2025
0

Defying the odds and lobbying pressure, California’s SB 53, known as the Transparency in Frontier Artificial Intelligence Act (TFAIA), is...

edit post
Risk Lessons From The Louvre

Risk Lessons From The Louvre

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 24, 2025
0

On a Sunday morning in Paris, a small crew arrived outside the Louvre’s Galerie d’Apollon in a truck equipped with...

edit post
Retailers: Holiday 2025 Is Here!

Retailers: Holiday 2025 Is Here!

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 24, 2025
0

To help retailers and brands prepare for the 2025 end-of-year shopping season, we recently published our annual guide to the...

Next Post
edit post
Navratnas of the market: 9 investing mantras from Devina Mehra’s new book

Navratnas of the market: 9 investing mantras from Devina Mehra’s new book

edit post
French investors buy 2 Tel Aviv apartments for NIS 27.5m

French investors buy 2 Tel Aviv apartments for NIS 27.5m

  • Trending
  • Comments
  • Latest
edit post
77-year-old popular furniture retailer closes store locations

77-year-old popular furniture retailer closes store locations

October 18, 2025
edit post
Pennsylvania House of Representatives Rejects Update to Child Custody Laws

Pennsylvania House of Representatives Rejects Update to Child Custody Laws

October 7, 2025
edit post
What to Do When a Loved One Dies in North Carolina

What to Do When a Loved One Dies in North Carolina

October 8, 2025
edit post
Another Violent Outburst – Democrats Inciting Civil Unrest

Another Violent Outburst – Democrats Inciting Civil Unrest

October 24, 2025
edit post
Probate vs. Non-Probate Assets: What’s the Difference?

Probate vs. Non-Probate Assets: What’s the Difference?

October 17, 2025
edit post
California Attorney Pleads Guilty For Role In 2M Ponzi Scheme

California Attorney Pleads Guilty For Role In $912M Ponzi Scheme

October 15, 2025
edit post
Asked on Reddit: Should I Pay Off Loans or Save?

Asked on Reddit: Should I Pay Off Loans or Save?

0
edit post
Accel and Prosus team up to back early-stage Indian startups

Accel and Prosus team up to back early-stage Indian startups

0
edit post
EUR/USD Teeters Near Key Fibonacci Level Ahead of This Week’s US CPI Test

EUR/USD Teeters Near Key Fibonacci Level Ahead of This Week’s US CPI Test

0
edit post
Key metrics from American Airlines’ (AAL) Q3 2025 earnings results

Key metrics from American Airlines’ (AAL) Q3 2025 earnings results

0
edit post
Bed Bath & Beyond Q3 2025 Earnings Preview (BBBY:NYSE)

Bed Bath & Beyond Q3 2025 Earnings Preview (BBBY:NYSE)

0
edit post
OBBB Limits Tax Credits for ITIN Filers Without SSNs

OBBB Limits Tax Credits for ITIN Filers Without SSNs

0
edit post
Milei’s party on track to win Argentina election in big comeback

Milei’s party on track to win Argentina election in big comeback

October 26, 2025
edit post
HSBC to recognize .1 billion in provision after court ruling in Madoff case

HSBC to recognize $1.1 billion in provision after court ruling in Madoff case

October 26, 2025
edit post
Accel and Prosus team up to back early-stage Indian startups

Accel and Prosus team up to back early-stage Indian startups

October 26, 2025
edit post
What Saudi Arabia and Bangladesh can teach Silicon Valley

What Saudi Arabia and Bangladesh can teach Silicon Valley

October 26, 2025
edit post
US And China Signal Progress In Kuala Lumpur; Crypto Traders Take Notice

US And China Signal Progress In Kuala Lumpur; Crypto Traders Take Notice

October 26, 2025
edit post
Here are the major earnings before the open Monday

Here are the major earnings before the open Monday

October 26, 2025
The Adviser Magazine

The first and only national digital and print magazine that connects individuals, families, and businesses to Fee-Only financial advisers, accountants, attorneys and college guidance counselors.

CATEGORIES

  • 401k Plans
  • Business
  • College
  • Cryptocurrency
  • Economy
  • Estate Plans
  • Financial Planning
  • Investing
  • IRS & Taxes
  • Legal
  • Market Analysis
  • Markets
  • Medicare
  • Money
  • Personal Finance
  • Social Security
  • Startups
  • Stock Market
  • Trading

LATEST UPDATES

  • Milei’s party on track to win Argentina election in big comeback
  • HSBC to recognize $1.1 billion in provision after court ruling in Madoff case
  • Accel and Prosus team up to back early-stage Indian startups
  • Our Great Privacy Policy
  • Terms of Use, Legal Notices & Disclosures
  • Contact us
  • About Us

© Copyright 2024 All Rights Reserved
See articles for original source and related links to external sites.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Financial Planning
    • Financial Planning
    • Personal Finance
  • Market Research
    • Business
    • Investing
    • Money
    • Economy
    • Markets
    • Stocks
    • Trading
  • 401k Plans
  • College
  • IRS & Taxes
  • Estate Plans
  • Social Security
  • Medicare
  • Legal

© Copyright 2024 All Rights Reserved
See articles for original source and related links to external sites.