This week, I wrote about the importance of Retail and Semiconductors.
These monthly charts will guide you on equities, especially after trump’s announcements yesterday.
Now, I want to cover my trifecta of inflation, beginning with the to ratio.
The ratio chart favors gold. 92.28 times greater price than silver shows no inflation.
What it does show is that gold is still a flight-to-safety investment.
It is historically high which means silver has room to catch up. And it must if we are to think more inflation is on the way, or stagflation. And not recession.
Should the ratio break down under 87, that could be a sign for more inflation pain and a great trade for silver.
Next is the . A precipitous decline would be noteworthy and most likely spur silver.
To date, the is weak, but not critical.
Under 103, that could be the start of a bigger move down.
And while we still consider oil an X factor, you should watch that too. Over $80 that would also be disruptive and inflationary.
However, the 3rd in my trifecta is .
Sugar is our 3rd inflation indicator as it is a global food staple.
It is tied to oil as well. But its true nature comes out when sugar is in shortage during stressful economic times.
It measures both social and political distress. Folks will fight over the last pound of sugar in a supermarket. They do not do that with eggs.
It also measures the balance between supply and demand.
Looking at the chart, sugar through 20 cents a pound is notable.
After Covid sugar peaked at 28 cents a pound. That is the number to watch.
Looking at the trifecta, we have potential to see much higher inflation, but right now, it is mixed with no major concerns at this time.
ETF Summary
(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)
S&P 500 (SPY) Made a new yearly low and bounced-real? 575 still sits overhead
Russell 2000 (IWM) 200 pivotal
Dow (DIA) 417 support
Nasdaq (QQQ) 480 next to clear
Regional banks (KRE) 55-60 the trading range to watch
Semiconductors (SMH) 205 monthly support held
Transportation (IYT) 63 support 67 resistance
Biotechnology (IBB) 130 has to clear
Retail (XRT) 70 pivotal 72 resistance
