No Result
View All Result
SUBMIT YOUR ARTICLES
  • Login
Friday, October 24, 2025
TheAdviserMagazine.com
  • Home
  • Financial Planning
    • Financial Planning
    • Personal Finance
  • Market Research
    • Business
    • Investing
    • Money
    • Economy
    • Markets
    • Stocks
    • Trading
  • 401k Plans
  • College
  • IRS & Taxes
  • Estate Plans
  • Social Security
  • Medicare
  • Legal
  • Home
  • Financial Planning
    • Financial Planning
    • Personal Finance
  • Market Research
    • Business
    • Investing
    • Money
    • Economy
    • Markets
    • Stocks
    • Trading
  • 401k Plans
  • College
  • IRS & Taxes
  • Estate Plans
  • Social Security
  • Medicare
  • Legal
No Result
View All Result
TheAdviserMagazine.com
No Result
View All Result
Home Market Research Market Analysis

The Bond Market ‘Paradigm Shift’: Why Yield Control Is Far From Over

by TheAdviserMagazine
5 months ago
in Market Analysis
Reading Time: 4 mins read
A A
The Bond Market ‘Paradigm Shift’: Why Yield Control Is Far From Over
Share on FacebookShare on TwitterShare on LInkedIn


Some bearish bond investors in Japan and the US appear to believe that a paradigm shift is underway in the sovereign bond markets. To wit, consider the following statement from Jim Bianco on Thoughtful Money:  “If these deficits are really going to kick in and cause problems, these rates are going to go much higher than this.” The bond market paradigm shift we observe is that some people believe the governments and central banks of the largest nations are no longer managing interest rates. For those who believe in this paradigm shift, we ask a simple question: Why Would They Stop Now?

The governments and central banks of developed countries have long-standing policies that keep high levels of public and private debt serviceable. Moreover, these same policies aim to incentivize further debt accumulation. The bearish voices in the bond market, claiming a paradigm shift is underway, show a disregard for history. Bond bulls and bears can all agree that global fiscal debt trends are not sustainable. However, do you think the governments are now willing to pay the price for such malfeasance?

Two years ago, the Japanese government uncapped its interest rates, and not surprisingly, they have surged higher. However, with their approaching 3%, they announced that they are considering adjusting their debt issuance patterns. As shown below, its 30-year bond fell 35 basis points after the announcement. Bond yields in the US and around the world fell in sympathy. Governments around the world will preserve their debt-driven financial systems and economies by keeping a lid on interest rates. Again, ponder the one simple question if you believe in the paradigm shift: why would the governments and central banks stop manipulating the bond market now?

What To Watch Today

Earnings

No earnings releases today.

Economy

Economic Calendar

Market Trading Update

How this seems to be an “unstoppable” bull market. However, that doesn’t mean markets won’t pause before attempting to move higher. As we noted last week, the consolidation was expected.

“Even with Bessent’s comments, that market remains overbought in the short term, and a further consolidation process is likely to occur next week. At the end of this week, we removed our short-market hedge, added to bonds, and reduced equity exposure. If the market is going to consolidate, we can allow cash to act as the primary hedge. However, if the 200-DMA is violated, the 50-DMA will become the next critical support. From a bullish perspective, the 20 and 50-DMAs are now sloping positively, which should provide rising support levels. Overall, we suspect that the market will stabilize. Of course, there are always risks to be aware of, so increased cash levels are essential now.”

Most notably, this past week was the successful test of the 200-DMA. The pullback to that previous broken resistance level and subsequent bounce highly suggests that the April correction is complete and that market control returns to the Bulls. As such, there is very little resistance between current levels and all-time highs. However, as noted last week, with the markets still overbought on a momentum basis, further consolidation will be unsurprising before an advance to new highs occurs. With the MACD sell signal triggered and money flows declining, another test of the 200-DMA next week would be unsurprising.S&P 500-Daily Chart

Interestingly, the old saying “April Showers Bring May Flowers ” seems apropos, as the tariff-driven sell-off in April sprouted a very strong May advance. Notably, the had its best month of May since 1990.Rebound in May

However, as noted above, with the market short-term overbought and very bullish, we should expect the market to “struggle” somewhat in June as corporate share buybacks subside and companies go into blackout before Q2 earnings season begins. Furthermore, we have often stated that earnings remain overly optimistic, which concerns markets moving forward.

According to MRB Partners, the Q1 earnings season is expected to be the peak for the earnings growth cycle. Given the high correlation between forward earnings estimates and market returns, this commentary should not be readily dismissed.S&P 500 Trailing 4-Quarter Earnings Growth

That said, investors must be most careful of “market narratives.”  These narratives can potentially be far more harmful than helpful to investors who get swept up in the emotions generated by headline-grabbing rationalizations. Such is the topic for this week’s #BullBearReport

The Week Ahead And PCE Prices

The trend of lower-than-expected inflation data continued on Friday with PCE prices. The monthly and price indexes rose by 0.1% following a similar increase last month. The is now down to 2.1% on a year-over-year basis. Importantly, the supercore PCE, which measures core services excluding housing, is negative for the first time since the pandemic began. The Fed has frequently noted this as a critical inflation indicator. To wit is the following quote regarding the supercore PCE from Jerome Powell in 2022:

This may be the most important category for understanding the future evolution of core inflation

With inflation running below expectations for several months, the Fed’s concerns about tariff inflation may subside. If so, the labor market will likely be their key data point to assess when and how much to by. Accordingly, the labor market has generally been good. This week, the report on Tuesday, the report on Wednesday, and the BLS on Friday will further inform the Fed about the labor market. Also of interest will be the and surveys. In particular, traders will focus on the employment, new orders, and prices sub-indices.Supercore-PCE MoM

Tweet of the Day

Lance Roberts Tweet



Source link

Tags: bondControlmarketParadigmshiftYield
ShareTweetShare
Previous Post

CPB Earnings: Key quarterly highlights from Campbell’s Company’s Q3 2025 financial results

Next Post

Old Navy Women’s High-Waisted CloudComfy Skort only $15, plus more!

Related Posts

edit post
Comprehensive Sodium-Ion Battery Market Analysis: Demand Forecast

Comprehensive Sodium-Ion Battery Market Analysis: Demand Forecast

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 24, 2025
0

The Sodium-Ion Battery Market is gaining momentum as industries seek sustainable, cost-effective, and resource-abundant alternatives to lithium-ion technology. With sodium...

edit post
10 Bargain Dividend Stocks Ready to Shine in a Falling-Interest-Rate Environment

10 Bargain Dividend Stocks Ready to Shine in a Falling-Interest-Rate Environment

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 23, 2025
0

With a Fed rate cut all but certain, dividend stocks are back in focus. Lower yields on cash and bonds...

edit post
Predictions 2026: Automation At The Crossroads

Predictions 2026: Automation At The Crossroads

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 23, 2025
0

The race towards cognitive automation is well underway. For years, deterministic automation has been the backbone of reliability and compliance....

edit post
Transform Your Organization With Strategic Operating Model Change

Transform Your Organization With Strategic Operating Model Change

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 22, 2025
0

Operating model transformation represents one of the most critical challenges that technology leaders face today. The complexity requires continuous efforts to...

edit post
3 High-Growth Tech Stocks Poised to Crush Earnings and Fuel Further Rallies

3 High-Growth Tech Stocks Poised to Crush Earnings and Fuel Further Rallies

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 22, 2025
0

As the tech sector continues its relentless climb, investors are eyeing select companies with upcoming earnings reports that could ignite...

edit post
Interventional Ultrasound Market Analysis: Key Drivers and Challenges

Interventional Ultrasound Market Analysis: Key Drivers and Challenges

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 22, 2025
0

The Interventional Ultrasound Market is witnessing rapid growth, driven by the rising demand for minimally invasive procedures and the increasing...

Next Post
edit post
Old Navy Women’s High-Waisted CloudComfy Skort only , plus more!

Old Navy Women’s High-Waisted CloudComfy Skort only $15, plus more!

edit post
UK Legal Sector Showcases AI and Lawtech Innovation in the US

UK Legal Sector Showcases AI and Lawtech Innovation in the US

  • Trending
  • Comments
  • Latest
edit post
77-year-old popular furniture retailer closes store locations

77-year-old popular furniture retailer closes store locations

October 18, 2025
edit post
Pennsylvania House of Representatives Rejects Update to Child Custody Laws

Pennsylvania House of Representatives Rejects Update to Child Custody Laws

October 7, 2025
edit post
What to Do When a Loved One Dies in North Carolina

What to Do When a Loved One Dies in North Carolina

October 8, 2025
edit post
Probate vs. Non-Probate Assets: What’s the Difference?

Probate vs. Non-Probate Assets: What’s the Difference?

October 17, 2025
edit post
California Attorney Pleads Guilty For Role In 2M Ponzi Scheme

California Attorney Pleads Guilty For Role In $912M Ponzi Scheme

October 15, 2025
edit post
Baby Boomers Are Flocking to This Florida Town — but Not for the Weather

Baby Boomers Are Flocking to This Florida Town — but Not for the Weather

October 9, 2025
edit post
Claiming Girlfriend or Boyfriend as a Dependent on Taxes

Claiming Girlfriend or Boyfriend as a Dependent on Taxes

0
edit post
Avihai Stolero, Themis buy mineral water co Mey Eden

Avihai Stolero, Themis buy mineral water co Mey Eden

0
edit post
EconLog Price Theory: Pricing Plumbing

EconLog Price Theory: Pricing Plumbing

0
edit post
Harmony Gold Mining completes MAC Copper acquisition

Harmony Gold Mining completes MAC Copper acquisition

0
edit post
China’s Baidu to test robotaxis in Switzerland in race for Europe

China’s Baidu to test robotaxis in Switzerland in race for Europe

0
edit post
U.S. CPI Comes In Lower Than Expectations, Bitcoin Rises

U.S. CPI Comes In Lower Than Expectations, Bitcoin Rises

0
edit post
Harmony Gold Mining completes MAC Copper acquisition

Harmony Gold Mining completes MAC Copper acquisition

October 24, 2025
edit post
How Men and Women Perceive Fairness in the Workplace As Parents

How Men and Women Perceive Fairness in the Workplace As Parents

October 24, 2025
edit post
U.S. CPI Comes In Lower Than Expectations, Bitcoin Rises

U.S. CPI Comes In Lower Than Expectations, Bitcoin Rises

October 24, 2025
edit post
The Myth of the “Robber Barons”: James Hill versus the Crony Competitors

The Myth of the “Robber Barons”: James Hill versus the Crony Competitors

October 24, 2025
edit post
EconLog Price Theory: Pricing Plumbing

EconLog Price Theory: Pricing Plumbing

October 24, 2025
edit post
If tokenized gold is just a “trust-me-bro” IOU, what’s really on-chain?

If tokenized gold is just a “trust-me-bro” IOU, what’s really on-chain?

October 24, 2025
The Adviser Magazine

The first and only national digital and print magazine that connects individuals, families, and businesses to Fee-Only financial advisers, accountants, attorneys and college guidance counselors.

CATEGORIES

  • 401k Plans
  • Business
  • College
  • Cryptocurrency
  • Economy
  • Estate Plans
  • Financial Planning
  • Investing
  • IRS & Taxes
  • Legal
  • Market Analysis
  • Markets
  • Medicare
  • Money
  • Personal Finance
  • Social Security
  • Startups
  • Stock Market
  • Trading

LATEST UPDATES

  • Harmony Gold Mining completes MAC Copper acquisition
  • How Men and Women Perceive Fairness in the Workplace As Parents
  • U.S. CPI Comes In Lower Than Expectations, Bitcoin Rises
  • Our Great Privacy Policy
  • Terms of Use, Legal Notices & Disclosures
  • Contact us
  • About Us

© Copyright 2024 All Rights Reserved
See articles for original source and related links to external sites.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Financial Planning
    • Financial Planning
    • Personal Finance
  • Market Research
    • Business
    • Investing
    • Money
    • Economy
    • Markets
    • Stocks
    • Trading
  • 401k Plans
  • College
  • IRS & Taxes
  • Estate Plans
  • Social Security
  • Medicare
  • Legal

© Copyright 2024 All Rights Reserved
See articles for original source and related links to external sites.