Retail Sales Miss, US Indices Slip from Highs as Risk Sentiment Weakens

Global indices have opened the week with a resilient performance, recovering most of last week’s late-session tumble.

Over the past few years, several risk-off events have briefly triggered market panic, only for prices to swiftly return to their prior trends and sentiment to rebound rapidly, with panic often contained to one or two sessions.

Yesterday’s session suggested a similar pattern, but today’s pre-open sentiment appears somewhat unsettled. Global equity indices have traded in the red mostly on the session, with and the down about -0.80%.

The US report just released with -0.9% vs -0.7% expected, a sour headline number though the previous months base is strong with US Consumers having front-ran their purchases to avoid tariffs.

The Control Group stat was however stronger than expected, mitigating the miss (+0.4% vs +0.3%), one of the best indicators within the Data.

With the biggest data of the day already out, traders may still expect an agitated session

As the G7 meeting is underway in Kananaskis, Alberta, where world leaders are discussing the current state of affairs, significant new updates, specifically on the Israel-Iran conflict from the summit have been sparse.

Notably, President Trump has reportedly departed the meeting early to return to Washington, presumably to address the escalating developments in the Middle East.

In the energy sector, are consolidating, trading approximately $3 to $5 below their recent highs in the $71-$73 range, while still gaining over 2.30% on the session. Markets will likely interpret rising oil prices as directly correlated to increasing anxiety surrounding the conflict; it is, therefore, crucial to closely monitor these correlations.

Let’s take a look at short timeframe charts ahead of US Equity Markets open.

Intra-Day Charts for Nasdaq, S&P and the Dow

Both the and have yesterday recovered to their Thursday pre-sell off highs though it seems that buyers have taken their feet off the pedal, as we approach tomorrow’s and more war headlines are expected.

The has been struggling more than its peers to hold the positive sentiment. My hunch tells me this is the one to look for pursued anxiety and Nasdaq for a return of positive sentiment.

Watch for any particular divergence between the indices and if one starts to lead the others in a fall or another meteoric rise.