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Home Market Research Market Analysis

Markets Stall as JOLTS Miss and Treasury Rally Send Mixed Macro Signals

by TheAdviserMagazine
3 months ago
in Market Analysis
Reading Time: 2 mins read
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Markets Stall as JOLTS Miss and Treasury Rally Send Mixed Macro Signals
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data came in weaker than expected today, though that shouldn’t have been a surprise following May’s sharp increase. The JOLTS figures continue to track closely with Indeed data, suggesting that last month’s surge in job openings didn’t carry over into June.Still, the JOLTS data, combined with a strong 7-year , pushed rates lower across the curve, sending the 10-year yield down nearly 8 bps. However, the 10-year remains just above critical support at 4.33%, a level that has held firm for several weeks.

10-Year Treasury Yield Daily Chart It didn’t stop the from rising for a fourth consecutive day. The index faces considerable resistance around 99, suggesting we might see a day or two of consolidation ahead. However, the RSI indicates that the DXY likely has further room to climb.

USD/JPY vs 5-Year Yield Spread Meanwhile, the divergence between the US 5-year and Japan 5-year rate spread versus continues to widen. The rate spread is currently testing key support, raising questions about how much longer USDJPY can sustain its opposing move. The last notable divergence of this magnitude occurred in August of last year.S&P 500 vs High-Yield Credit SpreadsAnother notable divergence is occurring between the 10-year Treasury rate and the 1-year inflation swap—a scenario that’s relatively uncommon historically.S&P 500 vs HYG ETF ChartAlso notable is the divergence between the S&P 500 and high-yield credit spreads. Interestingly, the HY CDX Index hasn’t confirmed the recent highs in the S&P 500 and has, in fact, been moving in the opposite direction lately.S&P 500 vs NYSE Advance-Decline LineThere are numerous mixed signals in the market right now, with various indicators hovering at critical inflection points. As it stands, nothing appears to be breaking decisively or giving a clear signal—leaving us stuck in a holding pattern. By most accounts, rates should be higher, spreads wider, and stocks lower—yet here we are, with no meaningful moves.

It’s unclear what exactly the market is collectively waiting for at this stage.

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Tags: JOLTSmacromarketsmixedRallysendSignalsStallTreasury
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