fails at 200DMA again, back to .6430
Aussie jobs data in focus, but unemployment rate is key
Gold breaks $3200 with bearish momentum building
US PPI, retail sales due—tariffs may distort signals
The reversed earlier losses on Wednesday following a Bloomberg report suggesting the Trump administration isn’t seeking currency pledges in trade negotiations, easing fears it’s quietly targeting a weaker greenback. Still, sharp gains in Asian currencies hint at lingering market doubts.
Gold, on the other hand, has fallen beneath $3200 amid rising real yields and easing geopolitical tensions. US and loom as the next major test.
Gold Slides as Fundamental Headwinds Build
Source: TradingView
’s slide beneath $3200 came as stronger US data, rising real yields, and Trump’s efforts to calm Middle East tensions pressured the metal. With momentum indicators leaning bearish, rallies may be sold, though a real test for bears sits at the 50DMA and December 2023 uptrend. A break of those could open the door to $3057.50. Near-term resistance sits at $3200 and $3270.
Later in the session, attention turns to US and retail sales. Both may carry tariff-related noise, but the —especially core components—will be watched closely given their influence on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the . If tariffs are lifting prices, that’s likely where it shows up first.
Media Report Rescues USD
The US dollar rebounded on Wednesday after Bloomberg reported the Trump administration isn’t pursuing currency commitments in trade negotiations, helping to ease concerns the White House may be quietly targeting a weaker greenback. According to the piece, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is handling all FX matters directly, with no intention of allowing others to engage in currency policy discussions.
Still, recent outsized moves in Asian currencies—including the and —signal lingering market scepticism. Both nations are in active talks with Washington, and the rapid appreciation in their currencies suggests traders suspect concessions may be made to help secure trade deals.
The broader FX picture also tells a story—despite repeated attempts, the dollar’s been unable to hold onto bounces, hinting at deeper mistrust around fiscal credibility and the longevity of the strong dollar policy, especially as long-end Treasury yields push back towards April highs.
AUD/USD Fails at 200DMA Again
Source: TradingView
AUD/USD is one pair to watch. Price once again failed to break above the 200 DMA, triggering another sharp reversal. Sellers continue to fade strength above 0.6500, with the pair now back near the 50% retracement of the September–April downtrend at 0.6430—an area that’s acted as both support and resistance in recent months.
While bullish momentum has eased, the broader rebound from April lows remains intact, though the setup marginally favours selling into strength.
Source: TradingView
Original Post
