No Result
View All Result
SUBMIT YOUR ARTICLES
  • Login
Sunday, October 26, 2025
TheAdviserMagazine.com
  • Home
  • Financial Planning
    • Financial Planning
    • Personal Finance
  • Market Research
    • Business
    • Investing
    • Money
    • Economy
    • Markets
    • Stocks
    • Trading
  • 401k Plans
  • College
  • IRS & Taxes
  • Estate Plans
  • Social Security
  • Medicare
  • Legal
  • Home
  • Financial Planning
    • Financial Planning
    • Personal Finance
  • Market Research
    • Business
    • Investing
    • Money
    • Economy
    • Markets
    • Stocks
    • Trading
  • 401k Plans
  • College
  • IRS & Taxes
  • Estate Plans
  • Social Security
  • Medicare
  • Legal
No Result
View All Result
TheAdviserMagazine.com
No Result
View All Result
Home Market Research Market Analysis

AUD/USD and ASX 200 Surge Into RBA With Guidance in the Crosshairs

by TheAdviserMagazine
5 months ago
in Market Analysis
Reading Time: 3 mins read
A A
AUD/USD and ASX 200 Surge Into RBA With Guidance in the Crosshairs
Share on FacebookShare on TwitterShare on LInkedIn


Wall Street bounce boosts AUD and ASX 200
RBA cut fully priced, focus shifts to guidance
Hawkish tone could lift AUD, weigh on equities
AUD/USD testing key 200DMA with bullish signals
ASX 200 momentum remains strong, 8400 key resistance

A sharp decline in US Treasury yields, reversing earlier gains, helped spark a recovery in risk appetite on Wall Street, delivering strong tailwinds for cyclical assets like the and .

With a 25 basis point rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) fully priced for later today, whether those gains are sustained, extended or unwound may hinge on the guidance the bank offers on the rate outlook. On that front, a hawkish tone relative to market pricing looks the more likely outcome.

RBA Forecasts Key for AUD, ASX

As seen in the Bloomberg graphic below, which shows implied probabilities from AUD swaps markets, a 25bp cut is about as close to locked in as it gets without being fully priced. With 97.7% probability assigned and no major shocks expected, market reaction will likely centre on the tone of the RBA’s policy statement and updated forecasts.

Source: Bloomberg

The RBA’s last set of forecasts, released in February, is shown below. For , the bank’s 2% year-ended growth call for June 2025 may be revised slightly lower following soft household consumption in Q1. With the holding steady at 4.1% last month, there’s likely little need for near-term tweaks to labour market forecasts.

RBA SOMP Forecasts Q1 2025

Source: RBA

Given the RBA’s dual mandate of full employment and low and stable inflation, the greatest interest may come from its updated trimmed mean inflation profile. Back in February, when the easing cycle began, the bank’s inflation forecasts didn’t show a return to the midpoint of the 2–3% target band, warning that too many cuts were priced for it to hit its mandate.AU Curve May 20 2025

Source: TradingView

Fast forward to today, and even more easing is priced in than when those forecasts were made, suggesting that rather than being revised lower, the bank’s inflation projections may stay unchanged—or even edge higher. Yes, uncertainty remains high and prices have dropped further than expected, but don’t be surprised if the RBA pushes back on current pricing, which sees two additional cuts beyond today.

If that materialises, it could lift the Australian dollar while taking some heat out of the ASX 200.

AUD/USD Battle at 200DMA ResumesAUD/USD-Daily Chart

Source: TradingView

AUD/USD finds itself testing the key 200DMA early in the Asian session, a level it’s failed to break convincingly above in May. While Monday’s three-candle morning star pattern hints at upside, the signal is weaker given the lack of a sustained downtrend beforehand.

Still, with RSI (14) and MACD indicators turning higher, this test of the 200DMA may have more legs. Zooming out, AUD/USD also appears to be forming a bull pennant—a continuation pattern that warns of an eventual resumption of the prior bullish trend

Above the 200DMA, resistance sits between .6500 and .6515, with .6550 the next level of note if cleared. Below, watch for support to emerge under .6400 and at .6356, the latter a level that held repeatedly earlier this month. The 50DMA is another key downside level to monitor.

ASX 200 SPI Futures Deliver Bullish SignalASX 200-Daily Chart

Source: TradingView

The rally in off the April lows remains relentless, with another downside break of uptrend support failing in the overnight session, producing a bullish engulfing candle that warns of further upside if sustained during Tuesday’s day session.

8400 is the key near-term resistance, having capped the index last week. A sustained break above could invite more bulls to chase a retest of the former record highs at 8581. On the downside, 8280 remains critical support. A break and close below would increase the risk of a return to the 200DMA.

Given the price action and momentum backdrop, dip buying may continue to be more rewarding than fading the broader rally.

Original Post



Source link

Tags: ASXAUDUSDcrosshairsguidanceRBAsurge
ShareTweetShare
Previous Post

Moody’s US Downgrade AAA To AA1

Next Post

Gold Price Prediction: Gold prices off Rs 6,500 from peak. Time to buy now?

Related Posts

edit post
Where We Go Next After NY Climate Week

Where We Go Next After NY Climate Week

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 24, 2025
0

The 2025 New York climate week spurred discussions. What stood out for us was that everyone’s takeaways were rooted in...

edit post
What I’ve Found So Far

What I’ve Found So Far

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 24, 2025
0

Since July, I’ve attended the Hubspot Inbound, Oracle AI World, and SupportLogic’s Enterprise AI for CX conferences. I’ve also been...

edit post
California’s TFAIA Act Revives Conversation On AI Regulations

California’s TFAIA Act Revives Conversation On AI Regulations

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 24, 2025
0

Defying the odds and lobbying pressure, California’s SB 53, known as the Transparency in Frontier Artificial Intelligence Act (TFAIA), is...

edit post
Risk Lessons From The Louvre

Risk Lessons From The Louvre

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 24, 2025
0

On a Sunday morning in Paris, a small crew arrived outside the Louvre’s Galerie d’Apollon in a truck equipped with...

edit post
Bitcoin: 2,000 Level Emerges as Key Resistance for Next Leg Higher

Bitcoin: $112,000 Level Emerges as Key Resistance for Next Leg Higher

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 24, 2025
0

Bitcoin holds above $106,000 support, showing signs of recovery within its price channel. A close above $115,000 could confirm a...

edit post
CPI Preview: Inflation Data Looms Amid Shutdown With Fed Decision on the Horizon

CPI Preview: Inflation Data Looms Amid Shutdown With Fed Decision on the Horizon

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 24, 2025
0

As markets await the September (CPI) report, set for release Friday at 8:30 AM ET, investors and policymakers face a...

Next Post
edit post
Gold Price Prediction: Gold prices off Rs 6,500 from peak. Time to buy now?

Gold Price Prediction: Gold prices off Rs 6,500 from peak. Time to buy now?

edit post
long-term investment strategies: Are fertilizer and QSR stocks poised for a comeback? Neeraj Dewan answers

long-term investment strategies: Are fertilizer and QSR stocks poised for a comeback? Neeraj Dewan answers

  • Trending
  • Comments
  • Latest
edit post
77-year-old popular furniture retailer closes store locations

77-year-old popular furniture retailer closes store locations

October 18, 2025
edit post
Pennsylvania House of Representatives Rejects Update to Child Custody Laws

Pennsylvania House of Representatives Rejects Update to Child Custody Laws

October 7, 2025
edit post
What to Do When a Loved One Dies in North Carolina

What to Do When a Loved One Dies in North Carolina

October 8, 2025
edit post
Another Violent Outburst – Democrats Inciting Civil Unrest

Another Violent Outburst – Democrats Inciting Civil Unrest

October 24, 2025
edit post
Probate vs. Non-Probate Assets: What’s the Difference?

Probate vs. Non-Probate Assets: What’s the Difference?

October 17, 2025
edit post
California Attorney Pleads Guilty For Role In 2M Ponzi Scheme

California Attorney Pleads Guilty For Role In $912M Ponzi Scheme

October 15, 2025
edit post
Did Radhakishan Damani dump Trent? Inside the retail king’s mysterious exit from Tata’s hottest stock

Did Radhakishan Damani dump Trent? Inside the retail king’s mysterious exit from Tata’s hottest stock

0
edit post
Neo-Luddite Hokum from Conservatives Strikes Again

Neo-Luddite Hokum from Conservatives Strikes Again

0
edit post
Top Wall Street analysts champion these 3 stocks for solid returns

Top Wall Street analysts champion these 3 stocks for solid returns

0
edit post
Crypto.com Applies for U.S. Bank Charter, Joining Coinbase, Ripple and Circle

Crypto.com Applies for U.S. Bank Charter, Joining Coinbase, Ripple and Circle

0
edit post
Here’s Why Walmart Doesn’t Allow You to Tap Your Credit or Debit Card for Payment

Here’s Why Walmart Doesn’t Allow You to Tap Your Credit or Debit Card for Payment

0
edit post
How Montenegro became the world’s fastest-growing hub for millionaires

How Montenegro became the world’s fastest-growing hub for millionaires

0
edit post
How Montenegro became the world’s fastest-growing hub for millionaires

How Montenegro became the world’s fastest-growing hub for millionaires

October 26, 2025
edit post
Gilat Satellite Networks hits four-year peak

Gilat Satellite Networks hits four-year peak

October 26, 2025
edit post
Did Radhakishan Damani dump Trent? Inside the retail king’s mysterious exit from Tata’s hottest stock

Did Radhakishan Damani dump Trent? Inside the retail king’s mysterious exit from Tata’s hottest stock

October 26, 2025
edit post
Top Wall Street analysts champion these 3 stocks for solid returns

Top Wall Street analysts champion these 3 stocks for solid returns

October 26, 2025
edit post
Links 10/26/2025 | naked capitalism

Links 10/26/2025 | naked capitalism

October 26, 2025
edit post
BEL, Solar Industries, PTC to see upside up to 46%, Goldman Sachs says amid Rs 790 billion defence push

BEL, Solar Industries, PTC to see upside up to 46%, Goldman Sachs says amid Rs 790 billion defence push

October 26, 2025
The Adviser Magazine

The first and only national digital and print magazine that connects individuals, families, and businesses to Fee-Only financial advisers, accountants, attorneys and college guidance counselors.

CATEGORIES

  • 401k Plans
  • Business
  • College
  • Cryptocurrency
  • Economy
  • Estate Plans
  • Financial Planning
  • Investing
  • IRS & Taxes
  • Legal
  • Market Analysis
  • Markets
  • Medicare
  • Money
  • Personal Finance
  • Social Security
  • Startups
  • Stock Market
  • Trading

LATEST UPDATES

  • How Montenegro became the world’s fastest-growing hub for millionaires
  • Gilat Satellite Networks hits four-year peak
  • Did Radhakishan Damani dump Trent? Inside the retail king’s mysterious exit from Tata’s hottest stock
  • Our Great Privacy Policy
  • Terms of Use, Legal Notices & Disclosures
  • Contact us
  • About Us

© Copyright 2024 All Rights Reserved
See articles for original source and related links to external sites.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Financial Planning
    • Financial Planning
    • Personal Finance
  • Market Research
    • Business
    • Investing
    • Money
    • Economy
    • Markets
    • Stocks
    • Trading
  • 401k Plans
  • College
  • IRS & Taxes
  • Estate Plans
  • Social Security
  • Medicare
  • Legal

© Copyright 2024 All Rights Reserved
See articles for original source and related links to external sites.