QUESTION: Do you see any possibility that Iran can win?
Jeb
ANSWER: NO, in the conventional sense. The strategy of Iran is completely different from that of the US. It understands that Trump thinks he will be able to overthrow the regime and this will be short and sweet. They know they cannot win against the United States in that sense. They cannot send balistic missiles to attack NYC or LA. The greatest threat here is that they try to hurt the West by attacking the oil facilities in the Middle East. They know Trump has midterms and scandals to deal with like Epstein. They also know that Americans do not support a prolonged Neocon war. This most likely translates into dragging things out knowing that Trump may have bit off more than he can chew listening to the Neocons.
Iran is not a flat piece of land like Iraq. It is mountainous. They also know that a ground assault will be challenging and perhaps more costly in lives than Iraq. Iran mentality is not the same insofar as victory. It is more about surviving, which to them would be a victory.
Attacking the oil facilities of the other Middle Eastern states will have a great impact on the West than attacking Israel which they also do not expect to defeat. If they can create enough chaos so that ships stay in ports, that also would be a victory to Iran. What you don’t want to see happen is damaging the railway for oil to China. China is the largest oil importer. That would then threaten their national security.
