By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Bird Song of the Day
Eastern Meadowlark (Eastern), Kissimmee Prairie Preserve, Okeechobee, Florida, United States. “Song.” I think I hear a propeller airplane in the background? Plus many insects and other birds….
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In Case You Might Miss…
(1) New Trump’s New York trial starts to wrap up.
(2) Biden’s path to victory interviewed.
(3) A method for decrapifying Google search.
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Politics
“So many of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in fact a rational management of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
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Biden Administration
“Top US drug agency a notable holdout in Biden’s push to loosen federal marijuana restrictions” [Associated Press]. “‘DEA has not yet made a determination as to its views of the appropriate schedule for marijuana,’ reads a sentence tucked 13 pages into Garland’s 92-page order last Thursday outlining the Biden administration proposal to shift pot from its current Schedule I alongside heroin and LSD to the less tightly regulated Schedule III with such drugs as ketamine and some anabolic steroids. Internal records accompanying the order indicate the DEA sent a memo to the Justice Department in late January seeking additional scientific input to determine whether marijuana has an accepted medical use, a key requirement for reclassification. But those concerns were overruled by Justice Department attorneys, who deemed the DEA’s criteria ‘impermissibly narrow.’ Several current and former DEA officials told the AP they believe politics may be at play, contending the Justice Department is moving forward with the marijuana reclassification because President Joe Biden wants to use the issue to woo voters in his re-election campaign and wasn’t willing to give the DEA time for more studies that likely would have dragged beyond Election Day. Those officials also noted that while the Controlled Substances Act grants the attorney general responsibility for regulating the sale of dangerous drugs, federal law still delegates the authority to classify drugs to the DEA administrator. ‘It’s crystal clear to me that the Justice Department hijacked the rescheduling process, placing politics above public safety,’ said Derek Maltz, a retired agent who once headed the DEA’s Special Operations Division. ‘If there’s scientific evidence to support this decision, then so be it. But you’ve got to let the scientists evaluate it.’ Former DEA Administrator Tim Shea said the striking absence of Milgram’s sign-off suggests she was backing ‘the DEA professionals.’”
2024
Less than a half a year to go!
RCP Poll Averages, May 10:
National results static, but most of the Swing States (more here) are incrementally, but steadily, moving Trump’s way. Pennsylvania leans more Trump this week than last. Of course, it goes without saying that these are all state polls, therefore bad, and most of the results are within the margin of error. Now, if either candidate starts breaking away in points, instead of tenths of a point…. NOTE I changed the notation: Up and down arrows for increases or decreases over last week, circles for no change. Red = Trump. Blue would be Biden if he were leading anywhere, but he isn’t.
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Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan) “Prosecutors rest their case in Trump’s hush money trial” [Politico]. “It’s not clear how long the presentation of Trump’s defense will last, but the judge presiding over the case, Justice Juan Merchan, said he expects closing arguments to take place next Tuesday, after Memorial Day weekend. Then the jury will begin deliberating.”
Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan) “Live updates: Defense rests without Trump testifying in hush money case” [Associated Press]. “Court will resume at 2:15 p.m. ET [today], when prosecutors and the defense will discuss the instructions that will be given to jurors before they start deliberating. Deliberations are expected as early as next Wednesday…. The charging conference is an opportunity for prosecutors and the defense to weigh in on how they want the jury to be instructed in the law and what the verdict sheet will look like. At the conference, the parties may discuss how the charges are organized and the elements of a crime — spelled out in the law — that the prosecution needs to prove beyond a reasonable doubt to achieve a conviction. They’ll provide the judge with their versions of instructions and the verdict sheet — a form the jury fills out listing each charge and the possible verdicts — but it’ll ultimately be up to Judge Merchan to decide how to instruct the jury. Jury instructions are a roadmap to the sometimes complex legalities involved in the case. They aren’t designed to sway the jury one way or another, but rather to ensure jurors have a good understanding of the charges they’re weighing and the laws involved.”
Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “Brad Smith: What I would have told the Trump jury” [Washington Examiner]. “The goal of his hoped-for testimony, Smith said, was ‘to lay out the ways the law [FECA] has been interpreted in ways that might not be obvious.’ As an example, Smith cited the phrase ‘for the purpose of influencing an election,’ which has been heard during much analysis of the trial. ‘You read the law and it says that anything intended for the purpose of influencing an election is a contribution or an expenditure,’ Smith explained. ‘But that’s not in fact the entirety of the law. There is the obscure, and separate from the definitional part, idea of personal use, which is a separate part of the law that says you can’t divert campaign funds to personal use. That has a number of specific prohibitions, like you can’t buy a country club membership, you can’t normally pay yourself a salary or living expenses, you can’t go on vacation — all these kinds of things. And then it includes a broader, general prohibition that says you can’t divert [campaign funds] to any obligation that would exist even if you were not running for office.’ … ‘[W]e would have talked about ‘for the purpose of influencing an election’ is not a subjective test, like ‘What was my intention?’ — it’s an objective test. So hiring campaign staff is for the purpose of influencing an election…. ‘Go back to 1999. Hillary Clinton buys a house in New York. She bought it clearly to influence the election — I mean absolutely, right? — because she had to have a residence in New York. It is totally indisputable — that is a reason why she bought it. But it’s not a campaign expenditure.” • A thread from Smith:
Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan) “People v. Trump” [Politico]. “Blanche asked if Cohen has a financial interest in the outcome of the trial. Cohen conceded that he did, but disputed Blanche’s suggestion that Cohen would benefit more from Trump being convicted. ‘It’s better if he’s not, for me, because it gives me more to talk about in the future,’ Cohen said.” • I hardly think so. If Trump is convicted, we have the spectacle of Maddow fawning over Cohen to look forward to. A whole new market!
Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan) “Highlights from day 19 of Donald Trump’s hush money trial: Prosecution rests” [Associated Press]. After Blanche asks for a dismissal: “‘Trump attorney Blanche beseeched the judge to ‘not let this case go to the jury relying on Mr. Cohen’s testimony,’ arguing Cohen had not only lied repeatedly under oath in the past, but again while testifying in this trial. But Judge Merchan appeared unmoved by the argument, asking the defense attorney whether he believed that ‘as a matter of law, this person’s so not worthy of belief that it shouldn’t even be considered by the jury?’ Blanche said that he did. ‘You said his lies are irrefutable,’ the judge replied. ‘But you think he’s going to fool 12 New Yorkers into believing this lie?‘” • Depends on whether the Trump defense team kept the “Blue No Matter Who” types off the jury, I would say.
Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “5 big takeaways from Day 19 of Trump’s hush money trial” [ABC]. “Robert Costello, a former attorney for Cohen, had spent less than 15 minutes on the witness stand when Judge Juan Merchan sustained a string of the state’s objections. After one such interjection, Costello was heard muttering under his breath, ‘Jeez.’ That extracurricular musing prompted Merchan to dismiss jurors and issue Costello a stern rebuke, ordering him to uphold “proper decorum in my courtroom.’… The matter appeared settled. But seconds later, Merchan barked: ‘Are you staring me down?’ With that, Merchan took the extraordinary step of clearing reporters from the courtroom. After a few minutes, reporters and jurors returned and Merchan resumed proceedings without addressing the matter.”
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Trump (R) “Georgia focus group voter on Trump trials: ‘We need an answer’” [Axios]. “Most Georgia swing voters say they are skeptical that former President Trump would face serious punishment over his criminal indictments, even if he’s convicted, according to our latest Engagious/Sago focus groups. These voters, who voted for President Biden in 2020 after voting for Trump in 2016, said they think the ex-president is getting special treatment over his four criminal indictments. It’s a sign of the broad distrust among voters of the criminal justice system, particularly when dealing with one of the most famous politicians in the world…. ‘Any other regular person would still be in jail or house arrest or something,’ said Marquetta F….. 11 participants out of 14 said they think that Trump is not being treated like other criminal defendants. Five are registered Democrats, three are Republicans, and six are independents…. While most Georgia swing voters say the ongoing New York criminal case is not changing their views of Trump, they still would like his trials to be resolved before the election, although that is looking increasingly unlikely. ‘If we’re going to hold him accountable, it needs to be before he has the opportunity to possibly get the highest office in the land back, we need an answer, yes or no,’ said Joel M.” • If the voters think Trump is getting special treatment, that cuts against Trump’s narrative. Hmm.
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Trump (R): “Donald Trump deletes video post on Truth Social referencing ‘unified Reich’” [New York Post]. “The video appeared to use an online template, titled ‘Newspaper Vintage History Headlines Promo,’ to highlight the potential effects of a Trump victory…. Another reference in the Trump video appeared to be taken directly from a Wikipedia entry on World War I stating that ‘German industrial strength and production had significantly increased after 1871, driven by the creation of a unified Reich.’” • First Reich: Holy Roman Empire. Second Reich: Imperial Germany. Third Reich: The Nazis. 1871 refers to the Second. Still, who gave this nimrod staffer access to Trump’s account? I don’t think Susie Wiles is happy right now, given the Democrat pearl-clutching.
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Biden (D): “‘Never Trump?’ ‘Never Biden’ voters might loom larger” [WaPo]. “While much has been made of “Never Trump” Republicans, “Never Biden” voters appear to loom even larger — at least for now…. [In 2020], at least 50 percent of voters said not only that they weren’t voting for Trump, but that there was no chance they would. At most, just 4 in 10 said the same of Biden. That’s now flipped. The most recent poll to show this is Monday’s New York Times-Siena College poll of six key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Across those states, 46 percent of registered voters said there was no chance they’d vote for Trump, while 52 percent said the same of Biden. That’s the biggest gap to date, including an earlier Times poll and CNN polling as recently as last month. But even with smaller gaps, every such poll in recent months has shown more ‘Never Biden’ voters than ‘Never Trump’ ones. And in 3 of 4 such polls since November, it’s been a majority of voters who say they’ll never vote for Biden — just as it was with Trump in 2020.” • Hmm.
Biden (D): “Alarmed Democrats flee Biden’s ailing brand in battleground states” [The Hill]. “‘If you go out there and do a focus group, the focus groups all say, ‘He’s 200 years old. You got to be kidding me.’ And the worst part about it is for unaffiliated voters or people that haven’t made up their mind, they look at this and say: ‘You have to be kidding us. These are our choices?’ And they indict us for not taking it seriously,’ said a Democratic senator who requested anonymity to discuss the alarm sparked by Biden’s weak poll numbers in battleground states. Polls have shown that 40 percent of registered voters in battleground states were not too satisfied or not at all satisfied with the candidates in the presidential election. The senator said Democratic colleagues ‘know this is a problem’ but also realize it’s too late to do anything about it and that ‘this is the ticket we have to get behind and we have to win with this ticket.’ ‘We’ll see how much gravity we can defy,’ the lawmaker said of senators in tough races who are polling better than Biden.” Lots of good detail for each state. And then this: “‘People keep saying, ‘Why didn’t he take a pass, he’s just so tired?” the senator said of constituents who are baffled over Biden’s decision to run for a second term. ‘That is such a prevalent feeling.’” • On “tired,” I wonder if voters are projecting, and if they, too, would like to “take a pass.”
Biden (D): “How can Biden save America from Trump’s return to the White House? Drop out of the race” [USA Today]. “If Democrats were to nominate Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, he’d beat Trump like LeBron James posting up Kevin Hart. There are many others, including Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey. Trump would look old and unhinged next to their youthful competence and sober characters. And while Vice President Kamala Harris, who polls worse against Trump than Biden does, would have been a serious threat to take the nomination in open primaries, there is no chance a convention of Biden delegates would select her. They want to beat Trump too badly to take that risk.” • First trial balloon for Josh Shapiro….
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Kennedy (I): “RFK Jr. lists voting address at Westchester home — that’s in foreclosure and where neighbors have never seen him” [New York Post]. “Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. lists his residence to vote as a tony Westchester County address — which is in foreclosure proceedings for non-payment, court records show. The independent candidate claims his voting address is 84 Croton Lake Road In Katonah, though he is not the owner of the million-dollar, in-arrears property, does not show up in resident searches for it, and some longtime neighbors — and even local authorities — were shocked at the notion it’s his home. ‘No … he doesn’t live here,’ a local cop insisted Sunday…. The Kennedy campaign insisted in a Sunday night statement that the home is RFK Jr.’s ‘official address.’ ‘He receives mail there. His driver’s license is registered there. His automobile is registered there. His voting registration is from there. His hunting, fishing, falconry, and wildlife rehabilitation licenses are from there. He pays rent to the owner,’ the campaign said.
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“Trump vs. Biden Polls: Joe May Need a Rust Belt Sweep” [Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine]. Best of breed on the Swing State genre, so far; detail, polling. Well worth a read. “It’s the battleground-state polling that should be most alarming to Team Biden for the simple reason that he is consistently trailing in three Sun Belt states (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada) that were crucial to his 2020 win. If they (along with another competitive southern state, North Carolina) appear out of reach for the incumbent later in the campaign season, his path to victory may depend on a sweep in three highly competitive Rust Belt states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin…. For now, a Biden sweep of Rust Belt battleground states seems a likelier bet. In Michigan, Trump leads in the RCP head-to-head averages by 0.3 percent, while Biden leads by 0.3 percent in a five-way race. In Pennsylvania, it’s Trump by two points in both a two-way and five-way contest. And in Wisconsin, Trump leads by 0.6 percent in a head-to-head race and by 1.2 percent with minor candidates added in. A Biden Rust Belt sweep (assuming Biden picks off an electoral vote in Nebraska and Trump counteracts that with an electoral vote in Maine) would give the president the smallest possible majority of 270 electoral votes. That would come, of course, with a guaranteed challenge of the outcome by Team Trump, but that’s a virtual certainty in any case short of a Biden landslide. At this point, the president’s team would take any sort of win with joy and relief, even if they have to fight Trump and his mobs for a couple more months to make it stick. All in all, the path to a second Biden term is dangerously narrow.” • Yep. And Kennedy is a wild card.
“Biden and Trump Hunt for Breakthrough Moment in Stagnant Election” [Wall Street Journal]. “For many Americans, the race between two universally known but widely disliked candidates has had the low drone of background noise. Many have rushed to their political camps, pretty much sure of how they will vote this fall despite their displeasure with the choice before them. But the campaigns are eager to make sure their core supporters are fully engaged and committed to voting—and they want to move sooner rather than later to reach the approximately one-third of voters who remain persuadable and up for grabs…. Biden’s aides and allies have long argued that many Americans aren’t fully dialed into the race and that when they recognize that it is a choice between Biden and Trump, the incumbent’s approval ratings will rise. … Trump sees an upside and has been openly calling on Biden to debate him for months. His team thinks that putting the two on stage together will remind voters of Biden’s age—a significant vulnerability, according to Trump’s advisers—and that Trump will benefit from that contrast.”
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“Why election polls were so wrong in 2016 and 2020 — and what’s changing to fix that” [CNBC]. “Heading into the 2024 rematch between Trump and President Joe Biden, pollsters are trying a variety of strategies to avoid repeating history and to accurately capture the elusive Trump vote. For one, pollsters have adjusted their approach to “weighting,” a method that assigns a multiplier to each respondent to change how much their answer sways the overall poll outcome. Pollsters have always used weighting to construct survey samples that accurately reflect the electorate in terms of gender, age, race or income. But after 2016, they are taking particular care to weight education.” A proxy for class. More: “‘Some people will start a poll, they’ll tell you who they’re going to vote for and then they say, ‘I’m done. I don’t want to talk to you anymore. Goodbye,’” Don Levy, director of the Siena College Research Institute, which helps conduct polls for the New York Times, told CNBC. ‘In 2020 and 2022, we didn’t count those people.’ But this time around, Levy says they are counting the ‘drop-offs.’ They found that if they had counted those impatient respondents in 2020 and 2022, their poll results would have moved ‘about a point and a quarter in the Trump direction,’ Levy said, eliminating roughly 40% of their error. Levy added that SCRI is also taking an extra step to target Trump voters by modeling their sample to include a higher survey quota for people who are considered ‘high-probability Trump voters in rural areas.’”
“Senate Democrats don’t believe Biden’s bad polls, either” [Axios]. • But there’s literally no analysis explaining why they don’t.
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Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
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Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
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Airborne Transmission
Another good review for NuKit:
Our review of the Nukit Tempest is live:
💨 It cleaned our 728 cubic ft. test room in 31 minutes — faster than the Airmega 150, Alen Flex, Mila and Core 300.
🔈 It generated just 41.8 dB
⚡ It pulled only 8.8 watts
Outstanding work by @NukitToBeSure!https://t.co/LvEHRzYHse
— HouseFresh (@ThisHouseFresh) May 20, 2024
Transmission: H5N1
“Let them eat Viruses” [Anthony J. Leonardi, The Easy Chair]. “I can’t tell if it’s a race to the bottom with standards, or that we like feasting on viruses and swimming in sewage to prove our own vigour. It seems we cut corners on safety in order to make nutrition more affordable. If it ends up sparking another pandemic, however, we will all bear the cost. I guess that’s what is meant by privatizing gains and nationalizing losses. In my opinion, bird flu is now endemic in cattle. Meaning, there are even more opportunities for it to cross into humans. Furthermore, the virus is poorly adapted to human receptors, and can refine. It may refine to facilitate human to human spread and see its lethality rise as a consequence of better adaptation. Unfortunately, because of what we are willing to accept as far as the risk of viruses goes, it is quite possible that there will be a human H5N1 pandemic. I recommend, as I have always done, preparation. This entails a stock of N95, a plan with family and friends, and a safe harbour.” • The “safe harbour” part is not so easy. One has a “go bag,” but where to go?
Maskstravaganza
“Some NC House Republicans oppose anti-mask bill” [WRAL]. “Rep. Erin Pare, the only Republican from Wake County in the state legislature, said that now that the bill is in the House, she’ll fight for the public health exception to be added back in — while also still supporting another provision in the bill, to increase criminal penalties for people who commit crimes while wearing masks…. She’s not alone in voicing concerns from the right. Rep. John Torbett, R-Gaston, also wrote that he’d support adding back in the language allowing people to wear masks for public health reasons. Torbett is technically listed as the bill’s lead sponsor, but that’s only because the Senate took a bill he had sponsored, with the goal of increasing criminal penalties for people who wear masks to commit crimes, and rewrote it to also get rid of the public health exception for mask-wearing. ‘I will try to put back redundant language to clarify the medical use being OK,’ Torbett said.” • A hopeful sign. The bill has not yet passed, and seems to be stalled, for now (“engrossed“).
“Doctors rail against proposed ban against public masking” [North Carolina Health News]. “Banning masks, even for medical purposes, is likely to generate lawsuits, some say. Tara Muller, a policy attorney with Disability Rights North Carolina, sent a letter to state senators last week contending that the bill [HB237], if passed, would lead to violations of the NC Persons with Disabilities Protection Act, the Americans With Disabilities Act, and the Individuals With Disabilities in Education Act, or IDEA. ‘These disability rights laws guarantee people with disabilities equal access to public spaces and the right to be reasonably accommodated as needed for equal access,’ Muller said in her letter. ‘When people with disabilities are denied access to their communities, institutionalization and segregation from the community is a real possibility and one which violates their rights pursuant to the Olmstead decision to live in the most integrated settings.’”
Caption: “A face mask sported by DHHS Sec. Mandy Cohen and NC Emergency Manager Mike Sprayberry at the Emergency Operations Center on May 19, 2020 during the COVID pandemic. Photo credit: NC Dept of Public Safety”
Life’s little ironies…. (Of course, the mask is cloth, presumably so the logo could be embroidered onto it, so even then Mandy was prioritizing public relations over health, let alone modeling good behavior. Nevertheless.)
Testing and Tracking: H5N1
“Move over, wastewater. Store-bought milk could be another way to track the bird flu outbreak in cows” [STAT]. “Scientists from the University of Washington and the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center have managed to generate a full genetic sequence of H5N1 virus from milk, a development they suggest means commercially purchased milk products could be used to monitor the progress of the bird flu outbreak in dairy cattle and to check for important changes in the virus over time. With dairy farmers still reluctant to allow testing of their cattle, scientists trying to assess whether the outbreak is increasing or waning are in the dark. Likewise, their surveillance for important changes in the viruses — changes that would signal the virus is evolving to be better able to infect mammals — has been hampered by the limited data being shared by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.” • If and when H5N1 mutates, and the (human) pansyndemic hits, hat tip to the dairy farmers, a hearty “well done” to CDC, and big ups to the (captured) USDA.
Transmission: H5N1
“HPAI dairy herd infection case report” [Dairy Extension, Michigan State University]. “This report is what was known and reported on day 15 of the HPAI infection in a herd of approximately 500 lactating cows. … It began in a barn with two pens of cattle that had three water fountains, the center one being shared. They wanted to try to confine the disease to a single group or at least a single barn. They changed their wash cycle in milking so that it washed after this group of cows. Regardless of their efforts*, HPAI spread to all groups of lactating cattle on the farm. …. Based on the number of cows with elevated temperatures and subtracting out the normal rate, they believe 40% of the lactating herd was infected… Clearly, by day 15, the full impact of the disease has not yet been felt. However, the farmer did some cost estimations. He has spent $5,000 – $7,500 in extra medical supplies. Even though the costs of these common medications are low, the volume needed has been quite high. There has been the loss of milk, loss of quality premium, increased labor and loss of a few pregnancies resulting in culling animals. He estimates the cost for this herd of approximately 500 cows at $30,000 – $40,000. The owner of the farm in this case report understands that this does not include the potential longer-term costs. Another farmer said that some herds are seeing symptoms for four to six weeks. Additional negative impacts include increased culls of animals that do not recover significantly and increased weight gain of late lactation cows that recover feed intake but not milk output. ‘It has been a lot of work, stressful on the cows and frankly overwhelming,’ the farmer said. As required by law, this farmer reported the disease to the Michigan Department of Agriculture and Rural Development (MDARD). He believes it is important for the industry to understand the disease.” NOTE * Perhaps because H5N1 is airborne?
“Michigan reports 3 more H5N1 outbreaks in dairy herds” [Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy]. “The Michigan Department of Agriculture and Rural Development (MDRAD) today reported three more H5N1 avian flu outbreaks in dairy herds… In a statement, the MDARD said the three newly affected dairy herds are in Clinton, Gratiot, and Ionia counties, all of which were affected in recent outbreaks. … According to the MDARD’s line list, Michigan has now reported 18 outbreaks in dairy cows in nine counties, the most of any state.” • Hmm. Michigan is a swing state….
“The Bird-Flu Host We Should Worry About” [Katherine Wu, The Atlantic]. “[T]]he virus does not seem to have acquired what Webby considers the most crucial modification, one that would help it more efficiently enter human-airway cells in the first place. To do that, H5N1 would need to adjust its ability to latch on to particular sugars on cell surfaces, which effectively serve as locks to the cell’s interior. For decades, though, the virus has preferred the version of those sugars that’s most commonly found in the gastrointestinal tract of birds, and still seems to. Experts would really start to worry, [WHO’s Richard] Webby said, if it started glomming very tightly instead onto the ones most commonly found in human airways. That said, the difference between those sugars is architecturally quite small. And although scientists might colloquially call some bird receptors and others human receptors, mammals can produce bird receptors, and vice versa. (Humans, for instance, have bird receptors in their eyes, which likely explains why the farm worker who appears to have caught H5N1 from a dairy cow developed only conjunctivitis.) The right animal host could encourage the virus to switch its preference from birds to humans—and pigs fit that bill. They just so happen to harbor both bird receptors and human receptors in their respiratory tract, giving the flu viruses that infect them plenty of opportunity to transform.” • Something to watch…
Sequelae: Covid
“When Cells Turn Against Us: The Ferroptosis Link in COVID-19 Lung Destruction” [SciTech Daily]. “In severe COVID-19 cases, the lungs can suffer extensive damage, leading to life-threatening conditions such as pneumonia, inflammation, and acute respiratory distress syndrome. Until recently, the underlying cause of these wide-ranging lung reactions had not been clearly understood. Researchers at Columbia and the Columbia University Irving Medical Center have shed light on this mystery in new research published in Nature Communications. The study found that ferroptosis, a form of cell death first named and identified at Columbia in 2012, is the major cell death mechanism that underlies COVID-19 lung disease. The finding indicates that deliberately halting ferroptosis with therapeutic drug candidates could improve COVID-19 outcomes.” And: “Ferroptosis was first reported by Professor Stockwell in 2012. Ferroptosis is an unusual form of cell death in which certain cells die because their outer fat layers collapse. It differs from the most common kind of cell death, which occurs both in disease contexts and in normal processes like aging and involves cells chopping up the molecules in their interior.”
Elite Maleficence
“Too Many Deaths, Too Many Left Behind: A People’s External Review of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s COVID-19 Pandemic Response” [AJPM Focus] (AJPM Focus is the official open access journal of the Association for Prevention Teaching and Research and the American College of Preventive Medicine; Elsevier). From the Abstract: “The authors used a modified Delphi process to identify core pandemic management areas, which formed the basis for a survey and literature review. Their analysis yields 3 overarching shortcomings of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s pandemic management: (1) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention leadership downplays the serious impacts and aerosol transmission risks of COVID-19, (2) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention leadership has aligned public guidance with commercial and political interests over scientific evidence, and (3) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance focuses on individual choice rather than emphasizing prevention and equity. Instead, the agency must [oh?] partner with communities most impacted by the pandemic and encourage people to protect one another using layered protections to decrease COVID-19 transmission. Because emerging variants can already evade existing vaccines and treatments and Long COVID can be disabling and lacks definitive treatment, multifaceted, sustainable approaches to the COVID-19 pandemic are essential to protect people, the economy, and future generations.” • As we have been saying for quite some time. However, since CDC will do none of those things, it should be burned to the ground, the rubble plowed under, and the ground salted. (The authors include both Harvard Medical personnel and People’s CDC members. Interesting!)
“Long-COVID codes in health record may dramatically underestimate its prevalence” [Center for Disease Research and Policy]. “Long COVID is likely much more prevalent than indicated in electronic health record (EHR) diagnostic or referral codes, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine researchers report in eClinicalMedicine…. A total of 55,465 patients were flagged for long COVID, with 20,025 diagnostic codes and 35,440 referral codes. The incidence of new long COVID rose steadily in the records during 2021, peaking in January 2022 and then declining…. The authors said that validation of outcome measures is needed to better capture long-COVID cases. “National survey data suggests that many people in the UK suffer with long COVID, but relatively few cases are recorded in primary care,” they concluded. “We have shown that using EHR diagnostic or referral codes unfortunately has major limitations in identifying and ascertaining true cases and timing that severely limit its utility in shedding light on causal pathways to prevent or treat Long COVID.”
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Lambert here: Patient readers, I’m going to have to rethink this beautifully formatted table. Biobot data is gone, CDC variant data functions, ER visits are dead, CDC stopped mandatory hospital data collection, New York Times death data has stopped. (Note that the two metrics the hospital-centric CDC cared about, hospitalization and deaths, have both gone dark). Ideally I would replace hospitalization and death data, but I’m not sure how. I might also expand the wastewater section to include (yech) Verily data, H5N1 if I can get it. Suggestions and sources welcome. UPDATE I replaced the Times death data with CDC data. Amusingly, the URL doesn’t include parameters to construct the tables; one must reconstruct then manually each time. Caltrops abound.
TABLE 1: Daily Covid Charts
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new today; all others are not updated.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution image, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open image in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (Biobot) Dead.
[2] (Biobot) Dead.
[3] (CDC Variants) FWIW, given that the model completely missed KP.2.
[4] (ER) CDC seems to have killed this off, since the link is broken, I think in favor of this thing. I will try to confirm. UPDATE Yes, leave it to CDC to kill a page, and then announce it was archived a day later. And heaven forfend CDC should explain where to go to get equivalent data, if any. I liked the ER data, because it seemed really hard to game.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Tiny uptick, we’ll see if it’s a blip. I suppose to a tame epidemiologist it looks like “endemicity,” but to me it looks like another tranche of lethality.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Still down. “Maps, charts, and data provided by CDC, updates weekly for the previous MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Department Visits, Test Positivity) and weekly the following Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.
[7] (Walgreens) Slight uptick.
[8] (Cleveland) Leveling out.
[9] (Travelers: Posivitity) Up and down.
[10] (Travelers: Variants) KP.2 enters the chat, as does B.1.1.529 (with backward revision).
[11] CDC’s data and visualization, still being updated.
Stats Watch
There are no official statistics of interest today.
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Tech: “With JPMorgan, Mastercard on board in biometric ‘breakthrough’ year, you may soon start paying with your face” [CNBC]. “‘Our focus on biometrics as a secure way to verify identity, replacing the password with the person, is at the heart of our efforts in this area,’ said Dennis Gamiello, executive vice president of identity products and innovation at Mastercard. He added that based on positive feedback from the pilot and its research, the checkout technology will come to more new markets later this year… The consumer case is tied to the growing importance of loyalty programs. Most quick-service restaurants require consumers to provide their loyalty information to earn rewards — which means pulling out a phone, opening an app, finding the link to the loyalty QR code, and then presenting the QR code to the cashier or reader. For payment, consumers are typically choosing between pulling out their wallet, selecting a credit card, and then dipping or tapping the card or pulling out their phone, opening it with Face ID, and then presenting it to the reader. Miller says PopID simplifies this process by requiring just tapping an on-screen button, and then looking briefly at a camera for both loyalty check-in and payment.” • One more reason to eliminate cash, eh?
Tech: These fellas never stop coming up with great ideas:
Satya Nadella says Windows PCs will have a photographic memory feature called Recall that will remember and understand everything you do on your computer by taking constant screenshots pic.twitter.com/Gubi4DGHcs
— Tsarathustra (@tsarnick) May 20, 2024
Who will they sell the data to?
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Today’s Fear & Greed Index: 62 Greed (previous close: 64 Greed) [CNN]. One week ago: 56 (Greed). (0 is Extreme Fear; 100 is Extreme Greed). Last updated May 21 at 1:41:03 PM ET.
The Gallery
A less famous sunset:
Sunset by Monet pic.twitter.com/cQezU0c9g3
— Impressions (@impression_ists) May 16, 2024
News of the Wired
“Does One Line Fix Google?” [Tedium]. “Google quietly added something else to its results—a “Web” filter that presents what Google used to look like a decade ago, no extra junk….. It’s essentially Google, minus the crap. No parsing of the information in the results. No surfacing metadata like address or link info. No knowledge panels, but also, no ads. It looks like the Google we learned to love in the early 2000s, buried under the ‘More’ menu like lots of other old things Google once did more to emphasize, like Google Books…. It’s worth understanding the tradeoffs, though. My headline aside, a simplified view does not replace the declining quality of Google’s results, largely caused by decades of SEO optimization by website creators. The same overly optimized results are going to be there, like it or not. It is not Google circa 2001—it is a Google-circa-2001 presentation of Google circa 2024, a very different site…. [B]y adding a URL parameter to your search—in this case, ‘udm=14.’ • Intuitive! This article includes instructions for Vivaldi; here is a site with more browsers (but not Safari). It worked for me; I just added ‘udm=14’ to an existing Google search, and all the stuff I already know went away. Commentary:
What if the worst of humanity wasn’t in charge of everything for once https://t.co/P29bknAjIj
— Lauren McKenzie (@TheMcKenziest) May 20, 2024
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Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) find out how to send me a check if you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to find out how to send me images of plants. Vegetables are fine! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary plants! If you want your handle to appear as a credit, please place it at the start of your mail in parentheses: (thus). Otherwise, I will anonymize by using your initials. See the previous Water Cooler (with plant) here. From Amfortas:
Amfortas writes: “That’s the Bee Tree, a lil right of center.” The only reference to the bee tree I can find is from 2020:
northern texas hill country: i have pears and peaches starting to bud, more than a month earlier than last year(which was too early, it turned out: had to have burn barrels for a “late” freeze.)
bees in the bee tree are awake and wandering and hungry….and shampoo residue makes you smell like a flower, it seems… so i’ve been feeding them at the entrance to the new hive….again, a month earlier than i intended.
Perahps if there is a more current reference, Amfortas will qualify
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