Bitcoin (BTC) erased much of its US-Iran war-driven gains this week, moving back in sync with the broader downtrend in risk assets, mainly US equities.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin’s positive flip in S&P 500 correlation has historically preceded average declines of around 50% since 2018.
BTC is exposed to a broader risk-asset sell-off due to rising macro pressure.
As of Sunday, BTC/USD had fallen 5.65% week-to-date to about $68,700, while the S&P 500 (SPX) closed the week down 1.90%.
That renewed correlation is now signaling a greater risk of further downside in the Bitcoin market.
BTC drops 50% on average when it starts following stocks
The bearish warning for Bitcoin comes from a weekly correlation metric comparing BTC and the S&P 500 (SPX), the US equity benchmark index.
As of Saturday, the 20-week rolling correlation between BTC and SPX was 0.13, up from its recent nadir of around -0.5.
Since 2018, such sharp recoveries in BTC-SPX correlation have been preceding broader Bitcoin market declines, averaging at about -50%.
“It is a warning sign that the stock market is going to collapse and take BTC with it,” said analyst Tony Severino.
A 50% drop from Bitcoin’s current price would imply a downside target of roughly $34,350 if the historical pattern repeats. Multiple analysts have projected Bitcoin to drop as low as $30,000–$40,000 in 2026.
In 2020 and 2022, Bitcoin’s declines lagged by several months, unfolding after classic “bull traps” in which BTC rallied alongside rising SPX correlation before reversing and wiping out those gains.
Related: Bitcoin options signal fear even as BTC ETF outflows remain relatively low
Macro conditions, such as elevated oil prices, inflation, and lower odds of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, support the bearish outlook for Bitcoin and equities over the coming months.
Strategy pause adds to cautious outlook
Bitcoin’s renewed correlation with equities is also coinciding with a pause in corporate accumulation.
Strategy (MSTR), one of the largest Bitcoin holders, hasn’t bought BTC via the sales of its STRC preferred stock this week, according to data resource STRC.LIVE.
Its last acquisition, announced March 16, added 22,337 BTC worth $1.57 billion, bringing total holdings to 761,068 BTC. Bitcoin rallied by around 10.50% in the same period, beating US stocks.
Strategy’s STRC-fueled buying helped support Bitcoin’s rally during the US–Iran war. With no fresh purchases this week, BTC is more exposed to the potential sell-off in stocks.
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