As September looms, is Ethereum due a seasonable pullback?

With September just around the corner, Ethereum bulls are jittery, since the ninth month of the calendar year has typically been associated with weakness by the number-two coin. With an average loss of -6.42% since 2016, September is the single worst-performing month for Ethereum over most cycles.

Ethereum has been on a tear, fueled by institutions

Ethereum has been on a tear lately, closing in on all-time highs and breathing new life into the ETH community and beyond. As of mid-August 2025, ETH is trading above $4,700, up roughly 76% year-to-date and about 25% just since the start of August, marking its best price performance since the 2021 bull run.

Institutional inflows have been a major driver of Ethereum’s rally, as spot ETH ETFs attracted nearly $3 billion in net inflows throughout August, propelling prices higher and revealing new trends among institutional buyers.

Corporate treasury adoption is also ballooning, with companies collectively amassing over $17 billion in ETH reserves this year alone, locking up supply and intensifying price momentum.

Fundstrat co-founder and current chairman of BitMINE Immersion Technologies, Tom Lee, has made headlines this year with his company’s strategic pivot to Ethereum.

In just over a month, BitMINE accumulated the world’s largest corporate Ethereum treasury, boasting over $6.6 billion in ETH to become the largest ETH holder, surpassing even major investment and tech firms, such as ConsenSys.

Macro conditions have remained favorable as well, as dovish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve and improving global risk sentiment contributed to deeper institutional interest.

On-chain factors like DeFi activity, and protocol upgrades like Pectra have further reduced liquid supply and incentivized longer-term holding, creating powerful tailwinds for ETH’s price performance.

ETH’s notorious September weakness, bull run over?

However, as September approaches, portfolio rebalancing after summer runs, and tax-related selling could serve to damper the flames of a hot summer. Bitcoin and crypto trader Crypto Rover questioned Ethereum’s curious seasonality, posting:

“SEPTEMBER IS USUALLY A BEARISH MONTH FOR $ETH

Not just in general, but especially in post-halving years.2017: -21.65%2021: -12.55%2025: ???What’s your prediction?”

ETH’s price history reveals a persistent and often brutal September pattern. Since 2016, ETH gains in August are regularly wiped out in September. In 2017, ETH rallied 92% in August, then dropped -21.65% in September, after China announced a ban on ICOs.

In 2020, the Eth price was up around 25%, followed by a 17% pullback in September, and in August 2021, ETH found itself up some 35% only to retrace by 12% in September.

Not everyone is bearish on Eth

Despite the undeniable pattern, not all analysts are bearish. Standard Chartered Bank recently forecast ETH price to reach $7,500 by year-end 2025, with a longer-term target of $12,000 in 2026 and $18,000 by 2027.

On August 13, 2025, Tom Lee told CNBC that he expects Ethereum to “keep charging ahead” with upside propelled by ETF inflows and institutional adoption pushing the price above $7,000 a coin.

While the data suggests ETH faces a seasonal headwind in September, especially after a strong August, if ETH can buck its September curse, a bullish Q4 awaits.

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