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Shares of Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) are changing hands for 1.5% less than a week ago, underperforming the Nasdaq. CEO R.J. Scaringe has warned that traditional automakers would lose significant EV market share by the early 2030s, but that Chinese EVs pose an “existential threat.” The share price is still 31.6% higher than a year ago.
Shares of EV manufacturer Rivian have been on a rollercoaster this year, surging and then falling after its first-quarter report. They have recovered somewhat since the second-quarter report. In the latest results, revenue was up slightly year over year and sequentially to $1.3 billion. However, the company also posted a wider-than-expected loss and widened its full-year loss projection due to tariffs and the loss of EV tax credits. This reflected a 90% decline from its November 2021 IPO high. Some Wall Street analysts decreased their price targets after the report.
Still, the stock is 27.4% higher since its year-to-date low in April, despite facing challenges from reduced delivery targets and tariff pressures. However, it is countering those headwinds with cost efficiencies, strategic partnerships, and the anticipated R2 SUV launch next year. 24/7 Wall St. conducted some analysis to give investors a better idea of where they can expect the stock to be in a year. Let’s take a look at whether Rivian can overcome its hurdles and return to growth.
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Rivian is grappling with significant obstacles. Second-quarter deliveries totaled 10,661 vehicles, down 22.7% year over year. This decline in deliveries comes as Rivian prepares for the launch of its 2026 model year vehicles. The company reaffirmed its 2025 delivery guidance of 40,000 to 46,000 vehicles. It cited softening demand due to economic uncertainties and shifting consumer sentiment, as well as tariffs that are increasing manufacturing costs.
Rivian is still losing a lot of money on every car it builds, even though it was able to reduce the per-share vehicle losses from $43,000 in Q4 to $38,798 in Q1. Moreover, car buyers likely accelerated their purchases into the first quarter to avoid potential tariffs. As a result, sales for the current quarter could be weak as well.
Still, a $5.8 billion joint venture with Volkswagen, with $1 billion turned over in June 2025, bolsters Rivian’s $7.2 billion in cash, equivalents, and short-term investments. The R2, a $45,000 midsize SUV set for 2026 production in Illinois, targets broader appeal, while plant upgrades—including a planned month-long shutdown in the second half of 2025—aim to boost efficiency by 30%.
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Further, the EV market is expected to grow at a 32% CAGR through 2030, though Rivian projects full-year 2025 revenue of $4.7 billion to $4.9 billion, which at the midpoint is down from $4.97 billion last year. The hope is that the new R2 release and fleet sales could boost revenue further.
For its part, Rivian has now seen consecutive quarters of positive gross profit. The EV maker just completed a 1.2 million sq. ft. manufacturing facility in Normal, Illinois, with plans for another facility in Georgia underway. That second facility could add an additional 400,000 units of annual capacity. As of the end of the second quarter, the company reported $7.5 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments.
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In its most recent earnings call, Rivian reported $206 million of gross profit, making it the second consecutive quarter the company has seen positive gross profit figures. To address some challenges, the company also announced capex guidance of $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion to help it address issues about its lagging deliverables.
More recently, the company said it aims to raise $1.25 billion through a private bond sale to refinance 2026 debt. It also said it would invest nearly $120 million in a new facility in Illinois to fortify its supply chain and increase production capacity for R1 and R2 models.
There are lingering concerns about how much tariffs will affect Rivian, though. Material costs are expected to be elevated, equating to a few thousand dollars of impact per unit produced in 2025. Additionally, the company—despite seeing positive gross profit—has recorded adjusted EBITDA losses of $329 million, which it attributes to ongoing investment in R2 and key technologies.
Although the company manufactures 100% of its vehicles in the United States, tariff uncertainty presents a challenge to near-term growth prospects. However, Rivian is not focusing strictly on individual consumers. In its first quarter, the company announced a partnership with HelloFresh, which has incorporated 70 Rivian Commercial Vans into its fleet. This marks the first major fleet customer for the EV maker since van sales opened more broadly earlier in 2025.
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Since its 2021 IPO, Rivian’s stock has been volatile, soaring to $180 before crashing by 90%. After hitting a year-to-date low of $10.36 in April, it rebounded in May, supported by first-quarter gross profit and Volkswagen funding. However, the share price is down 90.0% since going public.
Wall Street sentiment remains cautious, with a consensus Hold rating from 25 analysts. Their average price target has ticked up to $14.35 per share, which is almost 9% higher than the current share price. Targets range from $10.00 to $21.00 per share.
After the earnings report, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives reiterated his Outperform rating. He acknowledged the near-term headwinds but cited the strategic importance of the Volkswagen partnership and the R2’s future growth trajectory. However, he also lowered his price target. Canaccord Genuity has the high target price, but Mizuho just downgraded the shares to Underperform with a $10 target.
Institutional investors hold 44.5% of the company’s outstanding shares. Interestingly, the largest holder of Rivian stock is not Vanguard, BlackRock, or another financial services firm. It is Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), which holds more than 158 million shares.
Estimate
Price Target
Change From Current Price
Low
$10.00
−24.2%
Median
$14.35
8.7%
High
$21.00
59.1%
Rivian’s cost efficiencies, gross profit milestone, and R2 launch position it for growth. Yet, tariff uncertainties and demand softness require investor caution. With 32% projected EV market growth and strategic partnerships, Rivian could achieve modest delivery gains in 2025. Its cash buffer and Volkswagen deal offer some stability, but execution risks remain. Rivian should only be considered a speculative buy for risk-tolerant investors betting on its long-term EV market role.
24/7 Wall St.’s year-end price target for Rivian Automotive is bearish at $11.88 per share. That represents 10.0% downside potential from the stock’s current price. That target is based on Rivian facing existing weakness in the EV market due to the elimination of the federal tax credit. We see projected growth rates allowing revenue to rise from $4.8 billion in 2025 to $9.6 billion in 2030, alongside net losses improving from $4.69 per share in 2025 to break even by 2030.
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