The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.24%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.09%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.24%. March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are down -0.28%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are down -0.27%.
Stock indexes are moving lower today, led by losses in megacap technology stocks. Also, today’s plunge in metals prices is weighing on mining stocks. Lower bond yields are supportive of stocks, with the 10-year T-note yield falling to a 1-week low of 4.10% today.
Silver and platinum fell sharply from fresh record highs today amid profit-taking following their parabolic rallies. The recent surge in both metals has taken prices to overbought levels, sparking technical selling. Also, the CME today raised margin levels for precious metals trading, which has sparked some long liquidation pressure.
Crude oil prices are up by more than +2% today, lifting energy producers and limiting losses in the broader market, as advanced peace talks over the weekend to end the Ukraine-Russian war failed to yield a breakthrough. Geopolitical tensions from Venezuela to Nigeria are also supporting crude prices. In addition, crude prices rose after China’s Ministry of Finance on Sunday pledged to broaden its fiscal spending base next year, signaling government support to drive economic growth.
Seasonal factors are bullish for stocks. According to data from Citadel Securities, since 1928, the S&P 500 has risen 75% of the time in the last two weeks of December, climbing 1.3% on average.
Market attention this holiday-shortened week will focus on US economic news. Later today, Nov pending home sales are expected to climb +1.0% m/m. On Tuesday, the Dec MNI Chicago PMI is expected to rise by +3.5 points to 39.8. Also, the minutes of the December 9-10 FOMC meeting will be released. On Wednesday, initial weekly unemployment claims are expected to increase by 1,000 to 215,000. On Friday, the Dec S&P manufacturing PMI is expected to remain unrevised at 51.8.
The markets are discounting the odds at 19% for a -25 bp rate cut at the FOMC’s next meeting on January 27-28.
Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 is up +0.17%. China’s Shanghai Composite climbed to a 6-week high and closed up +0.04% for the ninth consecutive daily gain. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -0.44%.
Interest Rates
March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) today are up by +4 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -1.6 bp to 4.112%. Mar T-notes rose to a 1-week high today, and the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 1-week low of 4.102%. Today’s stock market weakness is boosting safe-haven demand for T-notes. Also, geopolitical risks in Venezuela and Nigeria have added to the safe-haven appeal of T-notes.
European government bond yields are moving lower today. The 10-year German bund yield fell to a 1.5-week low of 2.836% and is down -1.4 bp at 2.848%. The 10-year UK gilt yield dropped to a 1-week low of 4.459% and is down -0.7 bp to 4.500%.
Swaps are discounting a 2% chance of a +25 bp rate hike by the ECB at its next policy meeting on February 5.
US Stock Movers
The Magnificent Seven stocks are mostly lower today, pressuring the broader market. Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) are down more than -1%. Also, Meta Platforms (META) is down -0.82%, Alphabet (GOOGL) is down -0.40%, Amazon.com (AMZN) is down -0.23%, and Microsoft (MSFT) is down -0.02%. Bucking the trend, Apple (AAPL) is up +0.15%.
Mining companies are weaker today, with gold prices down more than -3% and silver prices plunged more than -7% after initially climbing to a new record high. Hecla Mining (HL) is down more than -6%, and Newmont (NEM) is down more than -5% to lead losers in the S&P 500. Also, Coeur Mining (CDE) is down more than -4%, and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is down more than -2%.
Energy companies are moving higher today, with WTI crude up more than +2%. Devon Energy (DVN), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Halliburton (HAL), APA Corp (APA), Diamondback Energy (FANG), ConocoPhillips (COP), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) are up more than +1%. Also, Chevron (CVX) is up +0.63% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials.
Praxis Precision Medicine (PRAX) s is up more than +14% after getting a breakthrough therapy designation from the FDA for its ulixacaltamide for the treatment of patients with essential tremor.
DigitalBridge Group (DBRG) is up by more than +9% after SoftBank Group acquired the company for about $4 billion, or $16 a share.
Coupang (CPNG) is up more than +1% after offering compensation worth more than $1 billion to all customers affected by a data breach.
Earnings Reports(12/29/2025)
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On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
