No Result
View All Result
SUBMIT YOUR ARTICLES
  • Login
Thursday, October 23, 2025
TheAdviserMagazine.com
  • Home
  • Financial Planning
    • Financial Planning
    • Personal Finance
  • Market Research
    • Business
    • Investing
    • Money
    • Economy
    • Markets
    • Stocks
    • Trading
  • 401k Plans
  • College
  • IRS & Taxes
  • Estate Plans
  • Social Security
  • Medicare
  • Legal
  • Home
  • Financial Planning
    • Financial Planning
    • Personal Finance
  • Market Research
    • Business
    • Investing
    • Money
    • Economy
    • Markets
    • Stocks
    • Trading
  • 401k Plans
  • College
  • IRS & Taxes
  • Estate Plans
  • Social Security
  • Medicare
  • Legal
No Result
View All Result
TheAdviserMagazine.com
No Result
View All Result
Home Market Research Business

Markets might be celebrating but every single portfolio manager is trying to figure out how long the roller coaster will last

by TheAdviserMagazine
7 months ago
in Business
Reading Time: 4 mins read
A A
Markets might be celebrating but every single portfolio manager is trying to figure out how long the roller coaster will last
Share on FacebookShare on TwitterShare on LInkedIn



President Trump smashed the pause button on some of his tariffs before big banks careened into a head-to-head with analysts about their earnings guidance on Friday. The president’s announcement on social media had an immediate impact on markets, with the Nasdaq ending the day up 12%, while the S&P 500 rose more than 9%. Individual stocks climbed: Delta Air Lines lifted 23%, Nvidia rose more than 18%, and Apple, which saw more than $770 billion in value evaporate after concerns about the retail price of iPhones, closed the day up 15%.

Stock markets erupted with a torrential surge of optimism following President Donald Trump’s post on Truth Social pausing some of his tariffs, and comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reassuring the world that the U.S. is not embroiled in a trade war. 

Despite the brief respite from the carnage of the week, though, a chilling uncertainty looms over the next 90 days. 

“Every portfolio manager is trying to figure out whether you can draw a straight line to future negotiations,’” said Jake Schurmeier, portfolio manager at Harbor Capital and a former member of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Markets Group. “We get another 90 days before we have to do this song and dance again.”

To level set: President Trump announced a bevy of tariffs during a Rose Garden address last week that had been telegraphed since his campaign. Investors had priced in tariffs and the subsequent impact on trade policy, but the extent of the tariffs was greater than expected. Markets plummeted in the trading days after Trump’s announcement. The word “recession”—typically avoided at all costs—became a talking point, and the chances of the U.S. stumbling headlong into one rose, according to JPMorgan Chase, whose CEO Jamie Dimon announced publicly that a recession was a “likely outcome” after the tariff tumult. Trump said Dimon’s comments factored into his decision to issue the partial pause on Wednesday.  

Following Trump’s announcement, markets staged a gravity-defying rally, with the Nasdaq ending the day up 12%, while the S&P 500 rose more than 9%. 

Michael Orlando, executive director in the J.P. Morgan Center for Commodities and Energy Management at the University of Colorado Denver, told Fortune the tariff pause is a relief, mostly from uncertainty, which had continued to weigh on equity prices. But the bigger development, which emerged over the weekend, was that U.S. Treasuries “stopped looking like a safe harbor in a time of uncertainty and started looking like a risky bet, themselves,” Orlando said. 

“I think this tariff ‘cooling off’ period did a lot to dispel concerns that maybe the President doesn’t understand the idea of gains from trade,” Orlando added.

But the question remains: What happens next?

‘Ample Air Cover’

First, there’s the consideration as to whether the damage from tariffs will be lasting, along with the cost of pervasive economic uncertainty, said Schurmeier. All the planning around capital expenditures and major strategic moves just got tossed out the window because there is no certainty, he said. 

The portfolio manager noted there will be critical signs to look out for during earnings calls between major companies and analysts this week, particularly regarding how CEOs and CFOs plan to grapple with questions about tariffs—and anything else that might cause disruptions.

“This provides ample air cover to drop any bad news,” said Schurmeier. “Any bad news you have, get it out this quarter.”

Money managers will also be watching to see how big bank leaders, such as Dimon, talk about how their clients are responding, perspective on M&A activity, and guidance about their willingness to provide credit, Schurmeier added. Right now, it’s too early to talk about potential loan losses, but other topics will be indicative about whether there’s stronger business sentiment. 

“Whatever they say will be pretty instructive,” said Schurmeier. 

China: From 104% to 125%

The other major looming issue is China. 

The next few weeks are likely to zero in on the impact of possible further retaliation after China pledged to “fight to end” even before Trump raised tariffs on the country to 125%. Trump countered with no pause on China tariffs, and instead hiked them because of China’s “lack of respect,” the president wrote on social media. 

Idanna Appio, a portfolio manager at First Eagle Investments and former deputy head of the global economic analysis department at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said the situation with China is extremely serious, from tariff levels to the potential for a broken trading relationship between the world’s two largest economies. 

It’s unclear if Trump’s latest move will push China toward negotiation on tariffs or if economic tensions will reach such a level that China becomes more confrontational in the geopolitical sphere, Appio said. 

“Given the sharp escalation and the economic friction between the U.S. and China, which is obviously not good for the global economy, does that spillover to the geopolitical side?” she said. “If they feel they have nothing left to lose…does China start to push into other domains? I hope the answer to that is, ‘No.’”

Economic Outlook: ‘Very Tenuous’ 

Beyond what might happen with China, the U.S. economy remains in a “very tenuous place,” Appio said. 

She put a recession into her forecast but Appio said she isn’t sure if she’s removing it at this stage because of looming uncertainty even if tariffs aren’t as large as those initially announced last week. Plus, there’s still room for further tariff action and few uncertainties have been truly eliminated at this stage. 

“One fear I have is that we wind up repeating this whole exercise in 90 days,” said Appio. “It’s been a roller coaster ride, to say the least.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com



Source link

Tags: CelebratingcoasterfigureLongmanagermarketsPortfoliorollerSingle
ShareTweetShare
Previous Post

Vermont State Income Tax Guide

Next Post

US Senate Confirms Pro-Crypto Paul Atkins As SEC Chair

Related Posts

edit post
Israel Aerospace unveils new armed drone

Israel Aerospace unveils new armed drone

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 23, 2025
0

Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), which has earned a worldwide reputation for satellites, the Heron series drones, and the conversion...

edit post
Japan says it plans to tell Trump it will build up military, upgrade security strategy

Japan says it plans to tell Trump it will build up military, upgrade security strategy

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 23, 2025
0

Japan's new foreign minister said on Wednesday his country plans to show its determination to further build up its defence...

edit post
High-end housing segment remains hot this Diwali even as overall sales cool off, says Samir Jasuja

High-end housing segment remains hot this Diwali even as overall sales cool off, says Samir Jasuja

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 22, 2025
0

Despite signs of moderation in overall housing sales and new project launches across major Indian cities, the luxury housing segment...

edit post
Tesla targets 3M vehicle production within 24 months as full self-driving expansion accelerates (NASDAQ:TSLA)

Tesla targets 3M vehicle production within 24 months as full self-driving expansion accelerates (NASDAQ:TSLA)

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 22, 2025
0

Seeking Alpha's Disclaimer: The earnings call insights are compilations of earnings call transcripts and other content available on the Seeking...

edit post
YXT regains compliance with Nasdaq’s minimum bid price requirement (YXT:NASDAQ)

YXT regains compliance with Nasdaq’s minimum bid price requirement (YXT:NASDAQ)

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 22, 2025
0

YXT.com Group Holding Ltd. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:YXT) said on Wednesday it has regained compliance with Nasdaq’s minimum bid price requirement after...

edit post
Tesla reports record sales, record storage—but profit slips as tax-credit rush pulls demand forward

Tesla reports record sales, record storage—but profit slips as tax-credit rush pulls demand forward

by TheAdviserMagazine
October 22, 2025
0

Tesla’s Q3 2025 update reports record vehicle deliveries and record energy storage deployments, alongside higher revenue, but earnings pressure persisted...

Next Post
edit post
US Senate Confirms Pro-Crypto Paul Atkins As SEC Chair

US Senate Confirms Pro-Crypto Paul Atkins As SEC Chair

edit post
Wyoming Income Tax Guide – Intuit TurboTax Blog

Wyoming Income Tax Guide - Intuit TurboTax Blog

  • Trending
  • Comments
  • Latest
edit post
77-year-old popular furniture retailer closes store locations

77-year-old popular furniture retailer closes store locations

October 18, 2025
edit post
Pennsylvania House of Representatives Rejects Update to Child Custody Laws

Pennsylvania House of Representatives Rejects Update to Child Custody Laws

October 7, 2025
edit post
What to Do When a Loved One Dies in North Carolina

What to Do When a Loved One Dies in North Carolina

October 8, 2025
edit post
Probate vs. Non-Probate Assets: What’s the Difference?

Probate vs. Non-Probate Assets: What’s the Difference?

October 17, 2025
edit post
California Attorney Pleads Guilty For Role In 2M Ponzi Scheme

California Attorney Pleads Guilty For Role In $912M Ponzi Scheme

October 15, 2025
edit post
Baby Boomers Are Flocking to This Florida Town — but Not for the Weather

Baby Boomers Are Flocking to This Florida Town — but Not for the Weather

October 9, 2025
edit post
Why RIAs fire a client or turn new business away

Why RIAs fire a client or turn new business away

0
edit post
How the U.S. Government Shutdown is Impacting Real Estate Across the Country

How the U.S. Government Shutdown is Impacting Real Estate Across the Country

0
edit post
2025 Spanish Regional Tax Competitiveness Index

2025 Spanish Regional Tax Competitiveness Index

0
edit post
Lodgerin launches Abroad – the software redefining global mobility

Lodgerin launches Abroad – the software redefining global mobility

0
edit post
Israel Aerospace unveils new armed drone

Israel Aerospace unveils new armed drone

0
edit post
Corn Faces Tuesday Losses

Corn Faces Tuesday Losses

0
edit post
Israel Aerospace unveils new armed drone

Israel Aerospace unveils new armed drone

October 23, 2025
edit post
Why .2B prediction markets’ major league sports backing is huge blow to legacy betting

Why $8.2B prediction markets’ major league sports backing is huge blow to legacy betting

October 23, 2025
edit post
Japan says it plans to tell Trump it will build up military, upgrade security strategy

Japan says it plans to tell Trump it will build up military, upgrade security strategy

October 23, 2025
edit post
2025 Spanish Regional Tax Competitiveness Index

2025 Spanish Regional Tax Competitiveness Index

October 23, 2025
edit post
High-end housing segment remains hot this Diwali even as overall sales cool off, says Samir Jasuja

High-end housing segment remains hot this Diwali even as overall sales cool off, says Samir Jasuja

October 22, 2025
edit post
Bitcoin’s Next Bull Phase Could Be Near As BTC-Stablecoin Ratio Plummets

Bitcoin’s Next Bull Phase Could Be Near As BTC-Stablecoin Ratio Plummets

October 22, 2025
The Adviser Magazine

The first and only national digital and print magazine that connects individuals, families, and businesses to Fee-Only financial advisers, accountants, attorneys and college guidance counselors.

CATEGORIES

  • 401k Plans
  • Business
  • College
  • Cryptocurrency
  • Economy
  • Estate Plans
  • Financial Planning
  • Investing
  • IRS & Taxes
  • Legal
  • Market Analysis
  • Markets
  • Medicare
  • Money
  • Personal Finance
  • Social Security
  • Startups
  • Stock Market
  • Trading

LATEST UPDATES

  • Israel Aerospace unveils new armed drone
  • Why $8.2B prediction markets’ major league sports backing is huge blow to legacy betting
  • Japan says it plans to tell Trump it will build up military, upgrade security strategy
  • Our Great Privacy Policy
  • Terms of Use, Legal Notices & Disclosures
  • Contact us
  • About Us

© Copyright 2024 All Rights Reserved
See articles for original source and related links to external sites.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Financial Planning
    • Financial Planning
    • Personal Finance
  • Market Research
    • Business
    • Investing
    • Money
    • Economy
    • Markets
    • Stocks
    • Trading
  • 401k Plans
  • College
  • IRS & Taxes
  • Estate Plans
  • Social Security
  • Medicare
  • Legal

© Copyright 2024 All Rights Reserved
See articles for original source and related links to external sites.