Chart of the Week: Import Ocean TEUs Volume Index – USA SONAR: IOTI.USA
Booking volumes for container imports, as measured by the Inbound Ocean TEUs Volume Index (IOTI), appear to have peaked in early July—about a month ahead of the typical peak shipping season. While “typical” has become a relative term in recent years due to shifting and increasingly normalized shipping behaviors, this early peak offers valuable insight into what transportation markets might expect for the remainder of 2025.
The IOTI is a 14-day moving average index that tracks twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) containers arriving at U.S. ports from around the world. While it generally follows stable seasonal patterns, 2025 has seen significant disruption due to an emerging trade war initiated by the current administration in an effort to rebalance U.S. trade and support domestic manufacturing.
The IOTI reached a multi-year high of 2,356 following the Fourth of July—roughly 4% higher than last year’s peak of 2,273, which occurred on August 5, 2024.
However, this does not necessarily indicate stronger goods demand compared to last year. A portion of this volume increase likely reflects a recovery from lost time earlier in the year when cost-prohibitive tariffs on Chinese imports, enacted in April and early May, temporarily froze activity. Many importers halted purchases from the U.S.’s largest overseas trading partner due to skyrocketing costs, which led to a 15% drop in the IOTI during May.
When the tariffs were paused (currently set to expire in August), shippers quickly resumed ordering—both to make up for delayed shipments and to ensure sufficient inventory ahead of potential demand spikes.
This situation presents a double-edged sword for many companies. On one hand, tariffs increase direct import costs; on the other, they contribute to broader economic uncertainty and could suppress consumer demand. The extent to which this trade war will impact the broader economy remains unclear.
So far, it has clearly rattled sentiment, as seen in multiple consumer and business confidence indexes. While the jobs market appears healthy on the surface, deeper analysis reveals underlying weakness. According to ADP, private-sector hiring stalled in June, leading to a net loss of jobs. Retail sales also softened in May, prompting many economists to forecast further weakening in the second half of the year as the full impact of tariffs begins to filter into prices.
Although government employment figures showed gains—thanks largely to state and local hiring—that trend may be overstated, as a growing number of people have exited the labor force in recent months.
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