We recently compiled a list of the Top 15 Commodity Producers With the Highest Upside Potential. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE) stands against the other Commodity Producer stocks.
Commodity producer stocks are shares of publicly listed firms that produce, explore, or distribute commodities. These businesses are frequently interested in metals, mining, agriculture, and energy. Commodity producer stocks are chosen by investors to obtain exposure to both the equity and commodities markets, potentially profiting from heightened interest in either.
The commodity market is booming. According to a research report, the size of the global commodity services market was projected at $3.56 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.65% from 2025 to 2034, from $3.87 billion in 2025 to roughly $8.16 billion by 2034. Regionally, the commodity services industry is dominated by North America, while Asia Pacific is projected to grow at a quick pace.
However, the World Bank’s April 2025 Commodity Markets Outlook projects that global commodity prices will plummet, falling 12% in 2025 and further 5% in 2026 to their lowest level since 2020. The anticipated drop is being driven by slowing global economic growth and persistently high oil supply. This decline carries risks to economic growth in developing countries, with two-thirds likely to see setbacks, even though it may reduce short-term price pressures associated with rising trade barriers. Notwithstanding the drop, nominal prices will still be higher than they were before the pandemic.
Ayhan Kose, the World Bank Group’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group, stated:
“Commodity prices have whipsawed throughout the 2020s—plummeting with arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic, then surging to record highs after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and then sinking again,” said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank Group’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group. “In an era of geopolitical tensions, surging demand for critical minerals, and more frequent natural disasters, that could become the new normal. Successfully navigating through repeated commodity prices swings will require developing economies to build fiscal space, strengthen their institutions, and improve investment climates to facilitate job creation.”
On the other hand, Morgan Stanley, on February 21, highlighted that 2025 is anticipated to be a crucial year for commodity markets, influenced by supply fundamentals, inflation patterns, and dollar fluctuations. Inflation in the United States is still high, falling short of the Federal Reserve’s 2% target in December with headline CPI readings of 2.9% and core CPI readings of 3.2%. After the U.S. presidential election, policy changes—particularly related to immigration, deficits, and tariffs—have raised inflation expectations. According to data from the University of Michigan, they rose from 2.8% to 3.3% in just one month. Commodity prices have generally been supported by these conditions.
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Since late September, the U.S. dollar has risen by almost 8%, in part because of growing interest rates and policy expectations. Global demand for commodities is usually pressured by a strong dollar, but if the currency stabilizes or depreciates, it may eliminate a significant obstacle. Although recent contango suggests sufficient short-term supply, a yield-adjusted perspective reveals markets in backwardation at about 4%, showing ongoing physical tightness. This suggests that inventories for essential commodities remain low, making the market more susceptible to demand shocks. Commodity performance in 2025 is supported by tight supply, high inflation, as well as potential dollar weakness.
Top 15 Commodity Producers With the Highest Upside Potential
A close-up of a worker inspecting a galvanised sheet steel product in a well-lit warehouse.
To collect data for this article, we examined companies operating in the commodity sector and then compiled a list of the stocks with the highest upside potential according to Wall Street analysts, as of May 1, 2025. To keep our list relevant, we have only included companies with a market cap of $10 billion and above. The following are the Commodity Producers with the Highest Upside Potential.
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Analysts’ Upside Potential as of May 01: 34.80%
Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE) is a steel product manufacturer and one of the Best Commodity Stocks. The company’s reportable segments include steel mills, steel products, and raw materials. The steel mills segment, which produces structural steel (wide-flange beams, beam blanks, H-piling, and sheet piling), plate steel, sheet steel (hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and galvanized), and bar steel products, accounts for the majority of its revenue. The firm uses electric arc furnaces, continuous casting, and automated rolling mills to produce steel, mostly from scrap steel and scrap steel alternatives. The primary customers of the steel mills segment are manufacturers, fabricators, and steel service centers in the US, Canada, and Mexico.
In the first quarter of 2025, Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE)’s backlog grew significantly, with steel mill segments up more than 30% and steel products up almost 25%, showing solid demand going forward. To support its long-term growth strategy, the company reinvested close to $860 million in capital projects, some of which are projected to begin operations within the next two years. A positive earnings projection was given by the firm, which predicted much greater earnings in the second quarter due to stable shipment volumes and better realized pricing.
It is anticipated that the effective execution of trade policies, such as the extension and reinstatement of Section 232 tariffs and provisional anti-dumping charges, will directly benefit Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE) and support the country’s steel industry. The company has also built solid platforms in sectors like overhead doors and racking, expanding into high-growth markets through acquisitions and organic investments. These developments are anticipated to contribute to significant EBITDA growth in the years to come.
Overall, NUE ranks 7th on our list of the Top Commodity Producers With the Highest Upside Potential. While we acknowledge the potential of NUE as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. There is an AI stock that went up since the beginning of 2025, while popular AI stocks lost around 25%. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than NUE but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
