(Reuters) -U.S. President Donald Trump on Saturday said that a “very successful attack” on three nuclear sites in Iran had been carried out.
“Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated,” Trump said in a televised Oval Office address.
After days of deliberation and long before his self-imposed two-week deadline, Trump’s decision to join Israel’s military campaign against its major rival Iran represents a major escalation of the conflict.
MARKET REACTION: With most markets closed, the only reaction was in cryptocurrencies. Ether fell more than 5%, bitcoin dipped 1%.
Following are comments from some financial analysts:
MARK SPINDEL, CIO, POTOMAC RIVER CAPITAL, WASHINGTON DC:
“I think the markets are going to be initially alarmed and I think oil will open higher. We don’t have any damage assessment and that will take some time. Even though he has described this as ‘done’, we’re engaged. What comes next? I think the uncertainty is going to blanket the markets, as now Americans everywhere are going to be exposed. It’s going to raise uncertainty and volatility, particularly in oil.
“There’s plenty of time to deliberate before markets open on Sunday. I’m making arrangements to talk to a few people tomorrow. We’ll get an early indication when the dollar opens for trading in New Zealand. This was such a bold action, though, and it’s such a big contrast to the comments about negotiating for the next two weeks.”
JAMIE COX, MANAGING PARTNER, HARRIS FINANCIAL GROUP, RICHMOND, VIRGINIA:
“Oil is sure to spike on this initial news, but will likely level in a few days. With this demonstration of force and total annihilation of its nuclear capabilities, they’ve lost all of their leverage and will likely hit the escape button to a peace deal.”
MARK MALEK, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, SIEBERT FINANCIAL, NYC:
“I think it’s going to be very positive for the stock market. I believe that on Friday if you’d asked me, I would have expected two weeks of volatility with markets trying to analyze every drib and drab of information coming out of the White House and I would have said that it would have been better to make a decision last week.
“So this will be reassuring, especially since it seems like a one and done situation and not as if (the US) is seeking a long, drawn out conflict. The biggest risk still out there is the Strait of Hormuz. It could certainly change everything if Iran has the capability to close it.”
JACK ABLIN, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER OF CRESSET CAPITAL, CHICAGO:
“This adds a complicated new layer of risk that we’ll have to consider and pay attention to… This is definitely going to have an impact on energy prices and potentially on inflation as well.”
SAUL KAVONIC, SENIOR ENERGY ANALYST, MST MARQUEE, SYDNEY:
“This escalation could add enough pressure on Iran to see Iran back down and accept a deal that de-escalates the conflict and brings down oil prices with it.
“The more likely scenario: This US attack could see a conflagration of the conflict to include Iran responding by targeting regional American interests that could include gulf oil infrastructure in places such as Iraq or harrassing passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
“Much depends on how Iran responds in the coming hours and days, but this could set us on a path towards $100 oil if Iran respond as they have previously threatened too. The information warfare that appears designed to have caught Iran off guard has also caught oil markets off guard to a degree.”
RONG REN GOH, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS, SINGAPORE:
“The U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities marks a significant escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict and introduces a new phase of geopolitical risk, with direct U.S. involvement likely to prolong tensions in the region.
“For Asian markets, the key vulnerability lies in their sensitivity to higher energy prices. A protracted conflict raises the risk of supply disruptions, which could feed into inflationary pressures and weigh on growth expectations across the region.
“With the prospects of a swift resolution now diminished, investors are likely to reprice risk across markets. I expect to see a flight to safety, with the USD bid and broad-based weakness across Asian risk assets as markets assess the potential fallout from sustained geopolitical instability and elevated oil prices.”
ALEX MORRIS, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, F/M INVESTMENTS, WASHINGTON DC:
Morris expects crude oil will spike to $80 or more when it resumes trading.
“That’s the next stop as a knee-jerk reaction. I think that’s the reason this happened on a Saturday and not a Sunday. There’s a lot more that is going to happen over the next 24 hours”
ERIC BEYRICH, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, SOUND INCOME STRATEGIES, LARCHMONT, NEW YORK:
“If there is nuclear fallout – all bets are off. The regime is going to conclude that it has lost everything and will do all kinds of crazy things, like commissioning terrorist attacks on embassies.”
CHRISTOPHER HODGE, CHIEF U.S. ECONOMIST, NATIXIS, NEW YORK:
“There is a plethora of potential ramifications but it appears as if the strikes were targeted, discreet, and discriminating. If so, and if the oil exporting capacity of Iran has not been compromised, then the economic fallout should be contained.
“A short-term pop in oil prices will be viewed by the Fed less as a factor that increases input costs and feeds through to inflation than it will be as a tax on consumers that suppresses demand. I wouldn’t expect this to factor into the Fed’s decision calculus unless the spike in oil prices is sustained.”
(Reporting by Saeed Azhar, Suzanne McGee, Scott Murdoch, Vidya RanganathanCompiled by Peter Henderson and Vidya Ranganathan)
