Adobe Analytics predicts online sales will grow 5.3% this holiday season, down from 8.7% last year, as consumers turn to deal days and buy now, pay later (BNPL) apps to fuel their spending in an uncertain economic climate.
One of the biggest upticks from last year is in the concentration of spending around sales events. The five-day period including Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday are expected to drive nearly one-fifth of sales (17.2%), up from 6.3% last year.
Yet the focus on deal days comes even as retailers hold steady on discount rates—and many consumers look for more than just the lowest price.
Adobe expects retailers to offer up to 28% off listed price, which is comparable to last year’s rate. At the same time, consumers appear ready to trade up this year, with the estimated share of units sold for the most expensive products rising 56% in sporting goods, 52% in electronics, and 39% in appliances.
But that doesn’t mean consumers won’t borrow money to fund their purchases; BNPL is set to drive $20.2 billion in online spending, which is up 11% year over year, according to Adobe.
BNPL providers such as PayPal are doing their part to drive this demand with new offerings such as 5% cash back on BNPL purchases through the end of the year.
The company cited a data point that more than 80% of shoppers that have used or considered using BNPL are open to using it this holiday season.
Shoppers are also on track to continue tapping AI-powered services for their shopping this year. Adobe estimates a 520% jump in AI traffic, and it anticipates this activity peaking around Thanksgiving, with categories such as toys, electronics, and jewelry seeing the biggest boost from AI services.
While Adobe’s forecast shows slowing growth, the online-focused report is still more optimistic than those reports looking at overall sales. For instance, Deloitte’s holiday forecast expects growth between 2.9% to 3.4%, as increased discretionary income makes up for economic uncertainty.
This report was originally published by Retail Brew.
