The chart structure has clearly deteriorated for the bulls. On the daily chart, Nifty had been trading within a “Rising Channel” pattern since May. However, this week’s breakdown below the channel’s lower boundary confirms a bearish reversal. Importantly, this breakdown is accompanied by a bearish gap, which qualifies as a “Breakaway Gap”, adding further conviction to the bearish setup. Additionally, the index has broken below the 50-day EMA, a level that had previously provided strong support.
With this, analyst Sudeep Shah, Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research, SBI Securities interacted with ET Markets regarding the outlook on Nifty and Bank Nifty for the upcoming week. Following are the edited excerpts from his chat:
Lets start with your view on the market. How do you see the market these days?
The benchmark Nifty index has continued its downward trajectory, extending its losing streak for the fourth consecutive week. This persistent weakness can be attributed to a combination of factors — the absence of strong positive triggers, Q1 earnings from key corporates coming below expectations, and lingering uncertainty on the global trade deal front, all of which have dampened investor sentiment.
During the week, the index made a feeble attempt to rebound from the crucial support zone; however, the recovery lacked conviction and fizzled out quickly. On Wednesday, Nifty managed to close above its 20-day EMA, briefly reviving hopes of a turnaround. But the optimism was short-lived, as renewed selling pressure dragged the index back into negative territory.The bearish undertone deepened on Friday, when the index decisively broke below two critical technical levels — the 50-day EMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its recent upswing from 24,473 to 25,669. This breakdown not only reflects fading bullish momentum but also signals growing nervousness among market participants. With no clear positive cues on the domestic or global front, the market appears vulnerable to further consolidation or downside in the near term.Talking about crucial levels, the 100-day EMA zone of 24,600-24,550 will act as immediate support for the index. Any sustainable move below the level of 24,550 will lead to further correction upto the 24200 level. While on the upside, the 20-day EMA zone of 25,100-25,150 will be the crucial hurdle for the index.
How has the earnings season been so far? Does it look like it will only push the market down?
The earnings season so far has largely fallen short of expectations, with several major companies reporting weaker-than-anticipated results. This underperformance has dampened investor sentiment, especially at a time when markets were hoping for strong earnings to act as a key catalyst for upward momentum. Beyond earnings, the absence of any significant positive domestic triggers and the continued uncertainty surrounding global trade negotiations have added to the cautious mood. These combined factors are contributing to the downward pressure on the market. While weak earnings alone may not be the sole reason for the market correction, when coupled with global headwinds and a lack of fresh buying triggers, they certainly add weight to the bearish undertone prevailing in the current environment.
What’s the take on Nifty Bank now?
The banking benchmark index, Bank Nifty, has relatively outperformed the broader frontline indices by closing the week on a mildly positive note, even as the overall market sentiment remained weak. Throughout the week, the index attempted to stage a recovery from lower levels, supported by selective buying in heavyweight banking names. However, it once again struggled to surpass the horizontal trendline resistance (57,300-57,400), which continues to act as a formidable barrier for the bulls.
Despite the intraday attempts to break out, the index faced selling pressure near resistance zones and eventually retreated from higher levels. By the end of the week, Bank Nifty settled near the 56,500 mark, registering a modest gain of 0.44%.
From a technical standpoint, the weekly price action has resulted in the formation of a Gravestone Doji candlestick pattern, which typically signals indecision in the market and a potential reversal when it appears after an up-move. This pattern, coupled with the repeated failure to breach resistance, suggests caution in the near term, with the need for a strong breakout to resume upward momentum.
Going ahead, the zone of 57,300-57,400 is likely to continue to act as a crucial hurdle for the index. While on the downside, the zone of 56,200-56,100 will act as important support for the index as it is the confluence of the 50-day EMA and prior swing low. Any sustainable move below the level of 56,100 will lead to further selling pressure in the index upto the level of 55,500 in the short term.
How does Bajaj Finance look after Q1 results?
Following the Q1 earnings announcement, Bajaj Finance witnessed a sharp gap-down opening on Friday, reflecting a negative market reaction. The stock has broken below key support levels, namely the 20-day and 50-day EMA, both of which have now started to slope downward, indicating growing bearish pressure. Additionally, the daily RSI has breached an upward sloping trendline, suggesting a loss of momentum and a potential continuation of the downtrend. Given these technical signals, the stock is likely to trade with a negative bias in the coming weeks unless it manages to reclaim key moving averages with strong volumes.
Another interesting stock these days is IEX. What would be your take on IEX after the entire market coupling scenario?
IEX has come under significant selling pressure following the news surrounding market coupling, witnessing a sharp decline of nearly 29% in the past week alone. This steep correction reflects heightened investor concern over the potential regulatory impact on its business model. From a technical standpoint, the stock has clearly entered a strong downtrend, having broken below both its short-term and long-term moving averages on daily as well as weekly charts. This breakdown across multiple timeframes further strengthens the bearish outlook. Additionally, the daily and weekly RSI has slipped below the 40 mark and continues to trend lower, indicating weakening momentum and a lack of buying interest. Unless there is a significant reversal in sentiment or a strong technical bounce, the stock appears poised to continue its downward trajectory in the near term.
What do you think can support the market now? Any optimism in sight?
At this stage, any positive development on the global front, particularly around trade negotiations involving the US, could act as a much-needed catalyst for the market. A constructive outcome or even signs of progress in trade talks would help ease investor concerns.
Which sectors are you focused on now?
The Nifty IT index witnessed a sharp correction last week, tumbling by over 4%, marking its third consecutive weekly decline. The index has been consistently underperforming the broader market and frontline indices. Technically, it continues to trade below its key moving averages, indicating persistent weakness. Moreover, the daily RSI has entered the super bearish zone, reinforcing the negative momentum. Given these technical signals, the index is likely to extend its southward journey over the next few trading sessions.
Meanwhile, the Nifty CPSE index has broken down from a 33-day consolidation range on the daily chart, triggering a fresh wave of selling pressure. In the process, it has also slipped below both its 20-day and 50-day EMAs. Notably, the daily RSI has fallen below the 40 mark for the first time since February 2025, further signaling weakness. These technical developments suggest the index may continue its downward trajectory in the near term.
In addition, several other sectoral indices — including Nifty India Defence, Oil & Gas, FMCG, Media, PSE, and Realty — are showing signs of continued weakness and are expected to remain under pressure in the short term.
On the brighter side, Nifty Healthcare and Nifty Pharma indices are showing relative strength and are likely to outperform in the near term, supported by stable price structures and improving momentum indicators.
Any stocks within those sectors?
Technically, Cipla, Shyam Metalics, Apollo Hospital, Jindal Steel, CSB Bank, and PGEL are likely to outperform in the short term.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
