(Bloomberg) — The dollar fell as investors walked back bets on Donald Trump wining the US presidential election after the latest raft of polling data indicated no clear advantage for him. Oil rose after OPEC+ delayed a hike in output.
An index of the greenback dropped the most in more than six weeks, with the US currency down against major peers such as the yen and the Australian dollar. Treasury futures rose.
The moves came after a poll by the Des Moines Register showed Kamala Harris with a 47%-44% lead in Iowa — a state Trump has won in each of his prior elections. One element of the so-called Trump trade favors higher Treasury yields and a stronger dollar. Still, other surveys show the two candidates poised for a photo finish, with voters narrowly split both nationally and across the pivotal swing states.
The dollar gauge and 10-year Treasury yields both had reached their highest since July in recent weeks, after investors ramped up wagers on a second term for Trump. There’s concern that his support for looser fiscal policy and steep tariffs will deepen the federal deficit and fuel inflation, undermining Treasuries.
Shares rose in Asia, led by those in South Korea and Australia. US stock futures edged up after Wall Street’s gains Friday following robust earnings from the likes of Amazon.com and Intel Corp. Japanese markets are closed for a holiday, which means there will be no Treasuries trading in Asian hours.
“It’s basically impossible to predict the outcome at this juncture,” Homin Lee, senior macro strategist at Lombard Odier in Singapore, told Bloomberg TV. The best thing to do is to “wait for the event to occur and then make a reasonable momentum decision.”
In addition to the US election, trading across financial markets this week also will be shaped by central bank decisions on interest rates for the US, UK and Australia, among others.
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points Thursday, after the latest jobs data showed US hiring advanced at the slowest pace since 2020 while the unemployment rate remained low. Even so, the numbers were distorted by severe hurricanes and a major strike.
In Australia, Westpac Banking Corp. increased its share buyback to A$2 billion ($1.3 billion) and reported profit that beat estimates. The shares edged lower.
Oil, Gold
West Texas Intermediate, the US crude benchmark, rose more than 1% Monday, extending its run of daily advances to four. OPEC+ agreed to push back its December production increase by one month and Iran escalated its rhetoric against Israel.
Gold was slightly higher after retreating from a record high last week.
In China, officials unveiled steps to attract foreign money just days before US elections that have raised concern about the impact on the world’s second-biggest economy from a return of Donald Trump to the White House. Foreign individuals are now allowed to provide capital for publicly traded firms as strategic investors, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the Commerce Ministry and four other regulators said in a statement late Friday.
Elsewhere in China, the country’s Standing Committee of National People’s Congress meets in Beijing Monday through Friday, as investors watch for any approval of fiscal stimulus to revive the slowing economy.
Key events this week:
India HSBC Manufacturing PMI, Monday
US factory orders, Monday
Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI, Monday
China’s Standing Committee of National People’s Congress meets through Nov. 8, Monday
Australia rate decision, Tuesday
China Caixin Services PMI, Tuesday
Indonesia GDP, Tuesday
Philippines CPI, Tuesday
South Korea CPI, Tuesday
US trade, ISM Services index, Tuesday
US Presidential Election, Tuesday
Brazil rate decision, Wednesday
New Zealand unemployment, Wednesday
Poland rate decision, Wednesday
Taiwan CPI, Wednesday
Vietnam CPI, trade, industrial production, Wednesday
ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks, Wednesday
China trade, forex reserves, Thursday
Eurozone retail sales, Thursday
Mexico CPI, Thursday
Norway rate decision, Thursday
Peru rate decision, Thursday
Sweden rate decision, CPI, Thursday
UK BOE rate decision, Thursday
US Fed rate decision, initial jobless claims, productivity, Thursday
Brazil inflation, Friday
Canada employment, Friday
Chile CPI, Friday
Taiwan trade, Friday
US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures rose 0.1% as of 11:54 a.m. Tokyo time
Nikkei 225 futures (OSE) rose 1.3%
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.6%
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.1%
The Shanghai Composite rose 0.4%
Euro Stoxx 50 futures were little changed
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5%
The euro rose 0.5% to $1.0893
The Japanese yen rose 0.8% to 151.80 per dollar
The offshore yuan rose 0.3% to 7.1121 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 0.1% to $69,189.46
Ether rose 0.5% to $2,480.22
Bonds
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.3% to $70.36 a barrel
Spot gold rose 0.1% to $2,740.21 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Richard Henderson.
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