“Fourth quarter is usually a volume push quarter, so price hikes don’t sustain. But after GST cuts, prices fell more than expected in south and east. The industry attempted price hikes in January and February. In February, Rs 15-20 price hikes were announced, out of which Rs 10 have sustained. This is a positive step for South India,” he said.
Chadha noted that demand is largely in line with expectations. “The demand is strong as usual in the fourth quarter, but there’s no significant uptick. Price hikes are more about major players maintaining discipline and coming off a lower base.”
Looking ahead to FY27, management focus is shifting from volume to value, which could support sustainable price gains. “Top management is moving towards more value than volume. In April-May, we might see price hikes of Rs 40-50 per bag in South India, compared to Rs 10-15 in recent years,” he explained.
Rural demand is expected to drive volume growth next year. “Rural revival is key. We expect FY27 volume to be 7-8% higher than FY26. State and central capex delays could be negative, but rural recovery should offset that,” Chadha added.
Over the next three years, Chadha expects significant improvement in both volume and value. “With consolidation and pricing strength, the industry should report far better results than FY25-26,” he said.With price discipline returning and rural demand poised for recovery, the cement sector could finally see a long-awaited combination of volume growth and profitability.
