As West Asia continues to grapple with the ongoing conflicts, one of the key accords which had promised long lasting peace in the region, the Abraham Accords, completed five years of its signing on 15th September 2025. It may be considered an irony that the accord that should have led to larger acceptance of Israel in the region, completed five years on the very day when heads and leaders of 57 Arab and Muslim countries from across the globe were gathered in Doha to condemn the Israeli missile strike in Doha and consider measures to punish Israel for the blatant violation of Qatar’s sovereignty. It is therefore apt to revisit the accords and carry out a realistic assessment- whether it has been a failed experiment or a faint hope for lasting peace in the region cursed with episodic conflicts.
The Abraham Accords
The Abraham Accords is a set of normalization agreements, promoted by the US as an instrument of lasting peace in the region. The signing took place on 15th September 2020, when the UAE and Bahrain publicly normalized diplomatic relations with Israel; Morocco and Sudan subsequently took steps toward normalization in 2020–2021. The Accords formalized a process that was already growing in the region: a move towards building strategic, intelligence and economic ties between Israel and a number of Sunni Arab states, driven by mutual concerns about Iran, and a desire to procure advanced technology, security partnerships, and Western investment. The Accords opened opportunities for trade, security partnerships and public engagement between Israel and several Arab states, with an aim and hope that it would lead to acceptance and normalisation of Israel in the region, in the long run.
The accords were in fact, the culmination of a journey which started soon after President Donald Trump took office for his first term in January 2017. Soon after taking over office, the Trump administration put the resolution of the Israel-Palestine issue on priority. He hosted the Palestine Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas as early as in May 2017. During the meeting, Trump emphasised that “he is personally committed to helping Israelis and Palestinians achieve a comprehensive peace, and that any peace settlement can only be the product of direct negotiations between the Israelis and Palestinians.” Six months down the line, Trump took the world totally by surprise when, on 6th December 2017, he announced his twin decisions to formally recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and to move the US Embassy there from Tel Aviv. Calling his decision a “new approach to the conflict”, he added that was long-overdue and “necessary step” to enhance the peace process.
It was soon followed by reports of the Trump Peace Plan, reported first in February 2018 following a meeting of Arab and European Foreign Ministers in Brussels. It indicated that the US as well as the international community would grant recognition of a Palestinian state and acceptance of East Jerusalem as its capital. The plan also called for placing the Old City of Jerusalem under “international protection while Israel would continue to have its capital in Jerusalem. The plan was promoted as the ‘deal of the century’, while the Palestinian Authority denounced it as a conspiracy aimed at liquidating the Palestinian cause. The plan was however withheld until it was finally presented by President Trump on 20th January 2020. Calling it as ‘Peace to Prosperity’, he unveiled the 181 page plan, standing side by side with Israeli PM Netanyahu, announcing that “My vision presents a win-win opportunity for both sides, a realistic two-state solution that resolves the risk of Palestinian statehood to Israel’s security.” The plan even included a conceptual map of a two state solution too. One of the key elements of Arab-Israeli normalisation was to clearly identify and brand Iran as the enemy No.1. This could not be done if the Iran nuclear deal, signed under the Obama Administration in July 2015 would have been allowed to continue. Trump was therefore prompt in revoking the Iran nuclear deal in May 2018, calling the most horrible deal ever. The US also imposed a ‘Maximum Pressure’ policy on Iran, putting Iran under severe diplomatic and economic sanctions. A brief military crisis with Iran followed when Iran shot down a US Drone flying over its airspace on 20 June 2019 evoking immediate response from the US. Trump had reportedly ordered retaliatory military strikes against Iran, to be executed at dawn on 21 June, before changing his mind at the last moment. The assassination of the Iran’s most powerful military commander, General Qasem Soleimani on 3rd January 2020, killed by an air strike at Baghdad airport in a precision strike carried out by the US, not only added to the animosity between the US and Iran but was extremely useful in selling the idea of Iran as the main villain, to the regional countries.The Abraham Accords were the next and most significant step in Trump 1.0. Signed after hectic parleys over months, the accords had twin aims; firstly to bring about broad based acceptance and reconciliation of Israel with the Arab world. Secondly, it singled out, without even specifying, Iran as the enemy No.1. In the subtext of the Accords was also implanted the Palestinian issue subtly where it was stated that countries in the Accord will continue their efforts to achieve a just, comprehensive, realistic and enduring solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, giving no assurances or timelines.
Five Years on- A Reality Check
Five years on, have the Abraham Accords achieved what they set out for? Have more countries, especially within the Gulf region, joined the Abraham accords? Has Israel been mainstreamed into the region, better than the past? Have the Accords resulted in more peace and prosperity for Israel and the region? The answer to all the above is sadly, ‘no’. The Gaza war, Israel’s strike on Qatari soil and the mounting regional anger against Israel’s unilateral actions violating territorial integrity and sovereignty of nations, have not only undermined the spirit of normalization but have also exposed the hollow core of the Accords. Far from ushering in a stable peace, the accords are on life-support — a result of a flawed design that sought quick diplomatic wins while ignoring the core issue of discord in the region, the central question of Palestine.
With time, it has clearly emerged that the Abraham Accords were more of a combination of shallow arrangements and compromises rather than an instrument of comprehensive peace. The US wanted Israel’s normalisation and branding of Iran as enemy No.1 in the region, while Israel sought legitimacy, Gulf monarchies wanted to diversify economies beyond fossil fuels, get advanced technology and forge stronger security partnerships. For the US and Donald Trump, it was also projected as a major foreign policy success, close to the elections in November 2020.
But in their very design, the accords bypassed the crux of Israel’s regional isolation: the unresolved Palestinian question. Unlike Egypt’s 1979 treaty or Jordan’s 1994 agreement, which were linked to territorial compromises or peace processes, the Abraham Accords offered a broader regional umbrella of assurances without any actual progress on Palestinian statehood.
In terms of actual audit, Bahrain, one of the signatories, had recalled its ambassador from Israel in November 2023, early into the Gaza war, and has threatened diplomatic actions against Israel repeatedly ever since. The UAE has held onto the accords but has been forced to take a harder stance against Israel in recent months. After the recent strike into Qatar, the UAE has barred Israeli defense firms from participating in the forthcoming Dubai air show. It has also criticized Israeli announcements to strike at will against any country and Israeli plans to annex large parts of the occupied West Bank. With Saudi Arabia, the normalisation process has been put on hold and is unlikely to progress any further without some dramatic and positive development in the Gaza war.
Egypt and Jordan, though signatories of bilateral peace deals with Israel, are outraged as multiple red lines set by them have been crossed by Israel, in the Gaza war. And with Qatar, there is no likelihood of any early reconciliation. Plus, Iran, which was branded as enemy No.1 for getting the Abraham accords, suddenly no longer looks like an enemy of the region. The unprovoked strikes by Israel into Iran resulting in the ‘12 Day War’ has resulted in the other nations in the region closing ranks with Iran, a ‘brotherly nation whose sovereignty was violated’. Other existing signatories of the Abraham Accords i.e. Morocco and Sudan were more peripheral to the region and there too, the progress has been slow and sporadic.
Looking ahead
The road ahead for the Abraham Accords is thorny to say the least. After the strikes into Qatar, Israel is looking more isolated than ever. Any repeat of the Qatar type strike could force the region into more pronounced physical measures. Far from expansion, the current signatories like Bahrain and the UAE are re-calibrating their strategies. The Doha strike has further entrenched this trend. Instead of strengthening Israel’s integration into the region, it has reinforced the perception that Israel is a destabilizing actor that disregards Arab sovereignty.
By choosing quick normalization processes while ignoring the core issue of Palestine, the accords had offered only a façade of peace. The Gaza war exposed it while the strike into Qatar has completely shattered it. In the current mode, it seems that even for Israel, Abraham Accords are way down in the list of priorities. Going forward, the accords may not collapse outright, but they will remain politically frozen , stripped of momentum and credibility. The idea of the accords as a regional game-changer has thus been decisively undermined.
At five years, the verdict is clear: the Abraham Accords have failed to achieve their central objective, of genuine acceptance and reconciliation of Israel into the Arab world. The Accords do not reflect the dawn of a “new West Asia” but are a sobering reminder for all that no accord, which chooses to ignore the core issue of discord, can survive the test of time. In the case of the West Asian region, it is a cold reminder that there can be no lasting peace or true normalization in the region without addressing the Palestinian question.
The contributor is Senior Research Consultant, CRF
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